SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Florida Fire Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Beat Denver 1-0, playoff odds up 7.6 to 80.7%

16 points 7 5-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	+3.5		+0.3		-3.8		+0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	-1.0						-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.9		-0.0		-0.5
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	+0.5
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5			+0.1		+0.3
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4			-0.1		-0.5
Halifax 2 Ontario 6					-0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh vs Florida	-4.1-1.2-1.2+3.3+3.1+3.8		-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.3+0.3+0.4		+3.2+0.0-0.1-2.4-2.5-2.8		-0.2-0.1-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.6-0.7-0.4+0.1*+0.2+0.6				-0.1+0.3+0.2+0.5+0.5-0.1
New York vs Anaheim	+0.2-0.5-0.7-0.6-0.5*-0.0				+0.1+0.5+0.3*+0.3+0.2-0.2
Ottawa vs Halifax			-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.1		-0.4+0.1-0.2*+0.2+0.5+0.4
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.1		-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Florida finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

60		22	0		-	0	In		99.7	%	100	0							No		398
57	-59						In		98.1		100								No		52	*
56		20	2		-	0	In		95.1		99	1							No		144	*
55		19	2		-	1	In		94.8		99	1							No		344	*
54		19	3		-	0	In		82.9		93	7	0						No		1,038	*
53		18	3		-	1	100.0	%	71.8		88	12	0		0				No		2,059	*
52		18	4		-	0	99.9		57.1		81	18	1		0				No		4,693	*
51		17	4		-	1	99.8		40.2		72	26	2		0				No		8,288	*
50		16	4		-	2	99.8		24.8		62	33	4		0				No		16,391	*
49		16	5		-	1	99.7		12.5		50	42	8	0	0				No		25,415	*
48		15	5		-	2	99.6		5.4		38	47	14	0	0				No		42,858	*
47		15	6		-	1	99.3		1.7		26	50	23	0	1				No		59,529	*
46		14	6		-	2	98.9		0.4		17	48	33	1	1	0			No		88,646	*
45		14	7		-	1	98.2		0.0		10	43	44	2	2	0			No		111,022	*
44		13	7		-	2	97.1		0.0		5	34	55	4	3	0			No		78,665
		14	8		-	0	97.5		0.0		6	36	52	3	3	0			No		70,220	*
43		13	8		-	1	95.7		No		2	25	61	7	4	0			No		168,875	*
42		12	8		-	2	93.3		No		1	16	64	12	7	0	0		No		109,184
		13	9		-	0	94.1		No		1	18	64	11	6	0			No		94,714	*
41		12	9		-	1	90.8		No		0	10	62	18	9	0	0		No		137,217
		11	8		-	3	89.3		No		0	8	61	20	10	1	0		No		73,055	*
40		11	9		-	2	85.9		No		0	5	53	28	13	1	0		0.0	%	123,598
		12	10		-	0	87.0		No		0	5	55	27	12	1	0		No		106,615	*
39		11	10		-	1	82.2		No		0	2	44	36	16	2	0		0.0		140,068
		10	9		-	3	79.4		No		0	2	40	38	18	3	0		0.0		75,846	*
38		10	10		-	2	74.6		No		0	1	29	44	21	4	0		0.0		115,469
		11	11		-	0	76.5		No		0	1	32	44	19	4	0	0	0.0		99,597	*
37		10	11		-	1	69.9		No			0	20	50	22	7	1		0.2		126,833	*
		9	10		-	3	67.2		No			0	17	50	23	9	1	0	0.2		57,880
36		9	11		-	2	63.0		No			0	10	53	23	12	2	0	1.3		89,014
		10	12		-	0	64.8		No			0	12	53	23	11	1	0	1.3		77,375	*
35		9	12		-	1	59.1		No			0	6	53	21	16	4	0	6.2		129,321	*
34		8	12		-	2	55.8		No			0	3	53	17	20	7	0	18.1		106,686	*
33		8	13		-	1	53.6		No				2	52	12	22	12	1	39.2		74,865	*
32		7	13		-	2	52.5		No			0	1	52	8	21	17	2	63.0		55,782	*
31		7	14		-	1	51.9		No				1	51	4	17	23	4	82.3		35,492	*
30		6	14		-	2	51.5		No				0	51	2	13	26	7	93.3		24,314	*
29		6	15		-	1	51.9		No				0	52	1	8	28	11	97.9		13,825	*
28		5	15		-	2	51.8		No				0	52	0	5	27	16	99.6		8,627	*
27		5	16		-	1	52.4		No				0	52	0	2	24	22	99.9		4,165	*
26		4	16		-	2	51.9		No					52		1	21	26	Yes		2,384	*
25		4	17		-	1	53.1		No					53		0	16	31	Yes		1,021	*
24		3	17		-	2	53.0		No					53			9	38	Yes		474	*
23		3	18		-	1	55.6		No					56			6	39	Yes		178	*
22		3	19		-	0	55.1		No					55			10	35	Yes		69	*
21		2	19		-	1	36.4		No					36				64	Yes		22	*
20		1	19		-	2	50.0		No					50				50	Yes		8	*
19		1	20		-	1	In		No					100					Yes		2
18		1	21		-	0	Out		No								100		Yes		1
16		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0			0	99	Yes		398

Total:							80.7	%	0.8	%	4	13	35	29	11	5	2	0	6.9	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.6
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.0
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	*-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh vs Florida	+0.6+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
New York vs Anaheim	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Vancouver vs Edmonton	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

60		22	0		-	0	100	0
58	-59						100
57		20	1		-	1	97	3
56		20	2		-	0	95	5
55		19	2		-	1	95	5
54		19	3		-	0	83	16	1	0
53		18	3		-	1	72	25	3	0
52		18	4		-	0	57	35	7	0	0
51		17	4		-	1	40	44	14	2	0
50		16	4		-	2	25	44	25	6	0	0	0
49		16	5		-	1	13	36	35	14	2	0	0
48		15	5		-	2	5	24	38	25	7	1	0	0
47		15	6		-	1	2	12	32	34	17	3	0	0
46		14	6		-	2	0	5	20	35	29	10	1	0
45		14	7		-	1	0	1	9	27	36	21	5	0	0
44		13	7		-	2	0	0	3	15	34	34	13	2	0
		14	8		-	0	0	0	3	15	34	33	13	1	0
43		13	8		-	1		0	1	6	23	39	26	6	0	0
42		12	8		-	2		0	0	1	11	33	38	15	2	0
		13	9		-	0			0	2	11	33	38	14	2	0
41		12	9		-	1		0	0	0	4	21	42	27	6	1	0
		11	8		-	3			0	0	3	19	41	29	7	1	0
40		11	9		-	2			0	0	1	9	33	38	16	3	0	0	0
		12	10		-	0			0	0	1	9	33	38	16	3	0	0
39		11	10		-	1				0	0	3	20	39	29	9	1	0	0
		10	9		-	3				0	0	2	18	39	30	9	1	0
38		10	10		-	2					0	1	8	28	38	21	5	0	0
		11	11		-	0					0	1	9	30	37	19	4	0	0	0
37		10	11		-	1					0	0	2	16	35	32	13	2	0	0
		9	10		-	3						0	2	14	34	33	14	3	0	0
36		9	11		-	2						0	0	5	22	36	26	9	1	0	0
		10	12		-	0						0	0	6	23	36	26	8	1	0	0
35		9	12		-	1							0	1	10	28	35	20	6	1	0
34		8	12		-	2							0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0	0
33		8	13		-	1								0	1	5	20	35	28	10	1	0
32		7	13		-	2									0	1	9	27	36	21	5	0
31		7	14		-	1									0	0	3	14	34	34	13	1
30		6	14		-	2										0	1	6	23	40	26	4
29		6	15		-	1											0	2	13	36	39	9
28		5	15		-	2												0	6	27	48	19
27		5	16		-	1												0	2	17	50	31
26		4	16		-	2													1	10	46	43
25		4	17		-	1														3	39	58
24		3	17		-	2														2	27	71
23		3	18		-	1														1	20	80
22		3	19		-	0															14	86
21		2	19		-	1															9	91
19	-20																					100
18		1	21		-	0															100
16		0	22		-	0															0	100

Total:							1	2	3	5	8	11	15	14	12	10	7	5	3	2	1	0