Denver Dragons Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Lost to Florida 0-1, playoff odds down 1.3 to 1.3%

3 points 1 12-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.9		No		+4.5		-0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	-0.2
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.1				-0.6
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4					-0.6
Halifax 2 Ontario 6					-0.5
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5					+0.3
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4							-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Philadelphia vs Denver	-0.5-0.2-0.2+0.5+0.4+0.4		NoNoNoNoNo+0.0		+3.5+0.6+0.7-3.1-2.9-3.0		-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
New York vs Anaheim	+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1				+0.2+0.4+0.5+0.2+0.1-0.3
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1				-0.1+0.5+0.4+0.3+0.4-0.0
Pittsburgh vs Florida					+0.3+0.5+0.5+0.1-0.1-0.4
Ottawa vs Halifax					-0.5-0.1+0.1+0.5+0.4+0.5
Vancouver vs Edmonton					+0.1+0.4+0.4+0.3+0.3-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Denver finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

47		22	0		-	0	In		5.0	%	52	38	9						No		399
46		21	0		-	1	66.7	%	No			33	33		33				No		3
45		21	1		-	0	In		No		27	55	18						No		11	*
44		20	1		-	1	93.2		No		14	36	41	2	7				No		44	*
43		20	2		-	0	81.9		No		6	32	43	1	18				No		155	*
42		19	2		-	1	77.2		No		1	18	52	7	23	0			No		372	*
41		19	3		-	0	68.7		No		1	11	48	9	29	2			No		1,059	*
40		18	3		-	1	58.8		No		0	5	39	15	37	4	0		No		2,094	*
39		18	4		-	0	48.4		No		0	2	29	17	45	7	0		No		4,793	*
38		17	4		-	1	36.3		No			1	19	17	50	13	1	0	0.0	%	8,344	*
37		16	4		-	2	25.6		No			0	10	15	51	21	3	0	0.3		16,338	*
36		16	5		-	1	15.1		No			0	4	11	48	31	6	0	1.9		25,247	*
35		15	5		-	2	8.9		No			0	2	7	40	39	12	1	8.6		42,952	*
34		15	6		-	1	4.0		No			0	0	4	29	43	21	3	24.8		59,002	*
33		14	6		-	2	1.7		No				0	2	19	43	30	7	48.6		89,009	*
32		14	7		-	1	0.8		No				0	1	10	36	40	13	72.2		111,725	*
31		13	7		-	2	0.5		No				0	0	5	26	45	23	88.6		79,194
		14	8		-	0	0.5		No				0	0	6	28	44	21	87.9		70,324	*
30		13	8		-	1	0.4		No				0	0	2	19	46	32	95.9		111,372
		12	7		-	3	0.4		No				0	0	1	14	44	40	96.7		57,190	*
29		12	8		-	2	0.3		No				0	0	1	10	41	49	99.1		109,173
		13	9		-	0	0.4		No				0	0	1	11	41	46	98.9		95,020	*
28		12	9		-	1	0.3		No				0	0	0	6	35	58	99.8		136,654
		11	8		-	3	0.3		No				0	0	0	4	30	66	99.9		72,841	*
27		11	9		-	2	0.4		No					0	0	2	24	73	100.0		123,253
		12	10		-	0	0.4		No					0	0	3	25	71	100.0		106,983	*
26		11	10		-	1	0.3		No					0	0	1	18	80	100.0		139,759
		10	9		-	3	0.3		No					0	0	1	14	85	100.0		76,155	*
25		10	10		-	2	0.3		No					0	0	0	11	89	Yes		115,507
		11	11		-	0	0.4		No					0	0	0	11	88	Yes		99,592	*
24		10	11		-	1	0.3		No					0		0	7	93	Yes		119,473
		9	10		-	3	0.3		No					0		0	5	95	Yes		64,997	*
23		9	11		-	2	0.3		No					0		0	3	96	Yes		89,425
		10	12		-	0	0.3		No					0		0	4	96	Yes		76,807	*
22		9	12		-	1	0.4		No					0		0	2	98	Yes		84,279
		8	11		-	3	0.3		No					0		0	1	98	Yes		44,852	*
21		8	12		-	2	0.4		No					0		0	1	99	Yes		106,392	*
20		8	13		-	1	0.3		No					0			0	99	Yes		75,075	*
19		7	13		-	2	0.3		No					0			0	99	Yes		56,336	*
18		7	14		-	1	0.3		No					0			0	100	Yes		35,639	*
17		6	14		-	2	0.3		No					0			0	100	Yes		24,152	*
16		6	15		-	1	0.4		No					0			0	100	Yes		13,778	*
15		5	15		-	2	0.4		No					0			0	100	Yes		8,460	*
14		5	16		-	1	0.3		No					0				100	Yes		4,096	*
13		4	16		-	2	0.4		No					0				100	Yes		2,249	*
12		4	17		-	1	0.2		No					0				100	Yes		983	*
11		3	17		-	2	0.4		No					0				100	Yes		493	*
10		3	18		-	1	0.5		No					1				99	Yes		186	*
7	-9						Out		No									100	Yes		102	*
3		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0				100	Yes		398

Total:							1.3	%	0.0	%	0	0	0	1	4	10	21	65	90.4	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Denver 0 Florida 1	+0.3
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	-0.0
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	+0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.2-0.2

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

47		22	0		-	0	5	21	36	27	10	1
46		21	0		-	1		33		67
45		21	1		-	0				55	27	18
44		20	1		-	1			2	14	43	30	11
43		20	2		-	0		1		10	26	39	19	3	1
42		19	2		-	1				2	12	37	34	12	2
41		19	3		-	0				0	5	23	40	24	6	1
40		18	3		-	1					1	10	33	37	16	2	0
39		18	4		-	0					0	3	19	38	29	9	1	0
38		17	4		-	1						1	7	27	38	22	5	1	0
37		16	4		-	2						0	2	13	33	34	15	3	0	0
36		16	5		-	1							0	4	19	35	29	11	2	0
35		15	5		-	2							0	1	7	24	35	24	7	1	0	0
34		15	6		-	1								0	2	11	29	34	19	5	1	0
33		14	6		-	2								0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0
		15	7		-	0								0	0	4	16	32	31	14	3	0
32		14	7		-	1									0	1	6	22	35	26	9	1
		13	6		-	3									0	1	5	20	35	28	10	1
31		13	7		-	2									0	0	2	10	27	36	21	4
		14	8		-	0									0	0	2	10	28	35	20	4
30		13	8		-	1										0	0	4	17	36	33	11
		12	7		-	3										0	0	3	15	35	35	12
29		12	8		-	2											0	1	7	27	42	22
		13	9		-	0											0	1	8	27	42	22
28		12	9		-	1											0	0	3	18	43	36
		11	8		-	3											0	0	3	16	43	38
27		11	9		-	2												0	1	9	38	53
		12	10		-	0											0	0	1	10	38	51
26		11	10		-	1											0	0	0	4	29	67
		10	9		-	3												0	0	4	28	68
25		10	10		-	2													0	2	20	79
		11	11		-	0													0	2	20	78
24		10	11		-	1													0	1	13	87
		9	10		-	3													0	0	12	88
23		9	11		-	2													0	0	7	93
		10	12		-	0														0	7	92
22		9	12		-	1														0	4	96
		8	11		-	3														0	4	96
21		8	12		-	2														0	2	98
		9	13		-	0														0	2	98
20		8	13		-	1														0	1	99
19		7	13		-	2														0	0	100
18		7	14		-	1															0	100
17		6	14		-	2															0	100
16		6	15		-	1															0	100
15		5	15		-	2															0	100
14		5	16		-	1															0	100
13		4	16		-	2																100
12		4	17		-	1															0	100
3	-11																					100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	7	11	20	53