SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Calgary Cannons Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Beat Winnipeg 4-1, playoff odds up 2.7 to 95.5%

23 points 11 2-1

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	+1.4		+3.4		-0.3		+0.2
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	+0.4
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.3		+1.3				+0.0
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	*-0.1		*-0.4				-0.1
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	*-0.1		-0.4				-0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2			-0.7		-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary vs Ontario	+1.0+1.0+1.0*-0.2-0.4-1.1		+4.9+4.1+4.1-1.5-1.4-5.4		-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1		+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Vancouver vs Edmonton	+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3-0.2-0.1
Ottawa vs Halifax	-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.1		-0.6-0.7-0.4+0.3+0.2+0.7				-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver			-0.8-0.7-0.7+0.3+0.1+0.9
Toronto vs Los Angeles			*-0.0-0.8-0.8-0.5-0.8+0.3				-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

63	-67						In		Yes		100								No		621	*
62		19	2		-	1	In		99.7	%	100	0							No		357	*
61		19	3		-	0	In		99.6		100	0							No		1,091	*
60		18	3		-	1	In		99.6		100	0							No		2,066	*
59		18	4		-	0	In		99.1		100	0							No		4,841	*
58		17	4		-	1	100.0	%	98.2		99	1			0				No		8,339	*
57		16	4		-	2	100.0		96.5		98	2			0				No		16,221	*
56		16	5		-	1	100.0		92.9		96	4			0				No		25,204	*
55		15	5		-	2	99.9		87.8		93	6	0		0				No		42,872	*
54		15	6		-	1	99.9		79.6		89	11	0		0				No		58,713	*
53		14	6		-	2	99.8		68.4		82	17	0	0	0				No		89,170	*
52		14	7		-	1	99.6		54.4		73	26	1	0	0				No		110,897	*
51		13	7		-	2	99.4		39.0		61	36	2	0	1				No		78,958
		14	8		-	0	99.5		39.7		62	35	2	0	1				No		70,146	*
50		13	8		-	1	99.2		25.4		50	44	5	0	1	0			No		111,508
		12	7		-	3	99.1		23.7		47	46	6	0	1	0			No		57,327	*
49		12	8		-	2	98.7		13.2		35	52	11	0	1	0			No		108,852
		13	9		-	0	98.9		13.8		36	52	10	0	1	0			No		95,047	*
48		12	9		-	1	98.4		6.1		24	55	18	1	2	0			No		136,973
		11	8		-	3	98.1		5.5		22	55	20	1	2	0			No		73,694	*
47		11	9		-	2	97.6		1.9		14	51	29	4	2	0			No		123,424
		12	10		-	0	97.9		2.1		14	52	29	3	2	0			No		107,162	*
46		11	10		-	1	97.0		0.5		7	43	39	7	3	0			No		139,849
		10	9		-	3	96.5		0.5		6	42	40	9	3	0			No		76,175	*
45		10	10		-	2	95.8		0.1		3	31	47	15	4	0	0		No		115,512
		11	11		-	0	96.0		0.1		3	32	47	14	4	0			No		99,215	*
44		10	11		-	1	94.8		0.0		1	20	49	24	5	0	0		No		119,822
		9	10		-	3	93.9		0.0		1	18	48	26	6	0	0		No		64,985	*
43		9	11		-	2	92.8		0.0		0	10	45	37	7	1	0		No		89,318
		10	12		-	0	93.1		No		0	11	45	36	6	1	0		No		76,560	*
42		9	12		-	1	90.6		No		0	5	37	49	8	1	0		No		129,088	*
41		8	12		-	2	88.0		No		0	2	27	59	10	2	0		No		56,928
		9	13		-	0	88.3		No		0	2	28	58	10	2	0		No		49,673	*
40		8	13		-	1	85.7		No		0	1	19	66	11	3	0	0	No		74,934	*
39		7	13		-	2	83.3		No			0	12	71	11	5	0	0	No		56,559	*
38		7	14		-	1	81.2		No			0	7	74	10	7	1	0	0.0	%	35,744	*
37		6	14		-	2	79.5		No			0	5	75	9	9	2	0	0.3		24,052	*
36		6	15		-	1	78.6		No			0	3	76	6	10	4	1	1.8		13,812	*
35		5	15		-	2	78.0		No				2	76	4	10	7	1	8.0		8,422	*
34		5	16		-	1	78.2		No				1	77	2	9	9	2	22.9		4,074	*
33		4	16		-	2	78.5		No				1	77	1	7	10	3	42.8		2,265	*
32		4	17		-	1	77.8		No				0	77		4	11	7	70.6		1,096	*
31		3	17		-	2	76.2		No				0	76		2	11	10	84.1		491	*
30		3	18		-	1	74.7		No					75		2	10	14	92.8		166	*
29		3	19		-	0	76.9		No					77		3	5	15	97.4		78	*
28		2	19		-	1	76.0		No					76			8	16	Yes		25	*
27		2	20		-	0	87.5		No					88				13	Yes		8	*
26		1	20		-	1	66.7		No					67				33	Yes		3
25		0	20		-	2	In		No					100					Yes		1
23		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0			2	98	Yes		398

Total:							95.5	%	15.9	%	26	29	23	18	4	1	0	0	0.2	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.4
Philadelphia 2 Ottawa 3 (ot)	+0.1
Halifax 2 Ontario 6	+0.0
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+0.0
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.5-0.4-0.4+0.1+0.1+0.5
Ottawa vs Halifax	+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1
Philadelphia vs Denver	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto vs Los Angeles	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

63	-67						100
62		19	2		-	1	100	0
61		19	3		-	0	100	0
60		18	3		-	1	100	0
59		18	4		-	0	99	1
58		17	4		-	1	98	2	0
57		16	4		-	2	96	3	0
56		16	5		-	1	93	7	0
55		15	5		-	2	88	12	0	0
54		15	6		-	1	80	19	1	0
53		14	6		-	2	68	28	3	0
52		14	7		-	1	54	38	8	1	0
51		13	7		-	2	39	44	15	2	0
		14	8		-	0	40	44	14	2	0
50		13	8		-	1	25	45	25	5	0	0
		12	7		-	3	24	44	26	6	0	0
49		12	8		-	2	13	38	35	12	2	0
		13	9		-	0	14	39	33	11	1	0	0
48		12	9		-	1	6	28	39	22	5	0	0
		11	8		-	3	5	26	39	23	6	0	0
47		11	9		-	2	2	15	35	34	13	2	0
		12	10		-	0	2	15	36	33	12	2	0
46		11	10		-	1	1	7	25	38	24	6	0	0
		10	9		-	3	0	6	24	38	25	6	0	0
45		10	10		-	2	0	2	13	33	36	15	2	0	0
		11	11		-	0	0	2	13	34	35	14	2	0	0
44		10	11		-	1	0	0	5	23	39	26	6	1	0
		9	10		-	3	0	0	4	20	39	28	7	1	0
43		9	11		-	2	0	0	1	10	32	38	16	3	0	0
		10	12		-	0		0	1	11	32	37	16	2	0	0
42		9	12		-	1		0	0	3	19	39	30	9	1	0
41		8	12		-	2		0	0	1	8	29	38	20	4	0	0
		9	13		-	0			0	1	8	30	37	19	4	0	0
40		8	13		-	1				0	2	15	35	33	12	2	0	0
39		7	13		-	2				0	0	6	23	37	26	7	1	0
38		7	14		-	1					0	1	10	29	36	19	4	0	0
37		6	14		-	2						0	3	16	33	32	14	3	0	0
36		6	15		-	1							0	5	21	35	27	10	2	0
35		5	15		-	2							0	1	9	25	34	23	7	1	0
34		5	16		-	1								0	2	13	29	33	19	4	0
33		4	16		-	2									1	4	18	34	29	12	2	0
32		4	17		-	1										1	7	22	38	26	7	0
31		3	17		-	2										0	2	13	32	33	17	1
30		3	18		-	1											1	7	25	36	30	3
29		3	19		-	0												3	9	41	35	13
28		2	19		-	1														40	40	20
27		2	20		-	0														25	50	25
26		1	20		-	1															100
25		0	20		-	2																100
23		0	22		-	0															23	77

Total:							16	16	16	15	13	10	6	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0