Anaheim Attack Playoff Chances 1 50/50

Beat Vancouver 3-1, playoff odds up 9.7 to 66.3%

14 points 7 7-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

Wednesday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	+4.0		+0.1		-5.9		+0.2
New York 0 Los Angeles 2	+1.1				-0.8
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	+0.8				*-0.1
Denver 0 Florida 1	-0.7				*-0.1
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5			+0.0		+0.4
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4					-0.8
Halifax 2 Ontario 6					-0.8

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Lottery Eligibility	100.0*	Average seed
New York vs Anaheim	-5.6-1.7-2.1+4.3+4.4+5.1		-0.1-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1		+5.6*+0.2+0.7-4.4-4.4-4.9		-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Phoenix vs Winnipeg	-0.9-0.7-0.9+0.1+0.3+1.0				*-0.1+0.6+0.5+0.6+0.5-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Florida	-0.3-1.1-0.9-0.6*-0.2+0.5				+0.3+0.5+0.5+0.4*+0.2-0.4
Philadelphia vs Denver					-0.3-0.0+0.0+0.3+0.2+0.2
Ottawa vs Halifax					-0.7+0.1-0.0+0.8+0.5+0.6
Vancouver vs Edmonton					+0.1+0.6+0.5+0.6+0.2-0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Anaheim finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed								Lottery
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Eligibility		Count

57	-58						In		99.5	%	100								No		401	*
56		21	1		-	0	In		92.3		92	8							No		13	*
55		20	1		-	1	In		92.1		97	3							No		38	*
54		20	2		-	0	In		79.7		93	7							No		138	*
53		19	2		-	1	In		71.5		91	9							No		390	*
52		19	3		-	0	99.9	%	52.7		82	17	1		0				No		1,015	*
51		18	3		-	1	99.6		39.1		75	22	2		0				No		1,978	*
50		18	4		-	0	99.6		23.0		62	33	4		0				No		4,814	*
49		17	4		-	1	99.4		12.0		49	42	8	0	1				No		8,272	*
48		16	4		-	2	99.1		5.2		39	47	13	0	1				No		16,498	*
47		16	5		-	1	98.7		1.5		27	49	22	0	1	0			No		25,321	*
46		15	5		-	2	98.0		0.4		18	47	32	1	2	0			No		42,590	*
45		15	6		-	1	97.1		0.1		10	41	43	2	3	0			No		59,091	*
44		14	6		-	2	95.8		0.0		5	33	53	5	4	0			No		89,022	*
43		14	7		-	1	94.0		No		2	24	59	9	6	0			No		111,464	*
42		13	7		-	2	91.4		No		1	15	60	15	8	0	0		No		148,898	*
41		13	8		-	1	87.7		No		0	8	56	23	12	0	0		No		168,983	*
40		12	8		-	2	82.9		No		0	4	48	31	16	1	0		No		109,124
		13	9		-	0	83.4		No		0	4	48	31	16	1	0		No		94,726	*
39		12	9		-	1	78.3		No		0	2	38	38	20	2	0		No		136,684
		11	8		-	3	74.5		No		0	1	34	39	23	3	0		No		73,686	*
38		11	9		-	2	69.9		No		0	1	25	44	25	4	0		0.0	%	123,077
		12	10		-	0	70.6		No		0	1	26	44	25	4	0		0.0		106,452	*
37		11	10		-	1	63.5		No			0	16	47	29	7	1	0	0.2		148,445	*
		10	9		-	3	59.7		No			0	14	45	30	9	1		0.3		68,368	*
36		10	10		-	2	53.5		No			0	8	45	31	14	2	0	1.6		142,667	*
		11	11		-	0	57.3		No		0	0	10	47	31	11	1	0	1.3		71,786
35		10	11		-	1	48.9		No			0	5	44	31	17	3	0	6.4		118,656
		9	10		-	3	45.2		No			0	4	42	29	21	5	0	7.6		64,769	*
34		9	11		-	2	42.2		No			0	2	40	26	25	7	0	19.6		89,826
		10	12		-	0	42.3		No			0	2	40	27	24	7	0	19.0		77,489	*
33		9	12		-	1	38.0		No			0	1	37	20	28	13	1	41.1		129,221	*
32		8	12		-	2	35.9		No			0	1	35	14	29	19	2	64.6		106,576	*
31		8	13		-	1	34.8		No				0	34	8	26	27	4	83.4		74,666	*
30		7	13		-	2	34.4		No				0	34	4	21	33	8	93.8		56,564	*
29		7	14		-	1	34.0		No				0	34	2	14	36	15	98.3		35,779	*
28		6	14		-	2	33.9		No				0	34	1	8	35	22	99.7		24,380	*
27		6	15		-	1	34.6		No				0	35	0	4	31	30	100.0		13,669	*
26		5	15		-	2	33.7		No				0	34	0	2	25	39	Yes		8,466	*
25		5	16		-	1	34.2		No				0	34	0	1	18	47	Yes		4,255	*
24		4	16		-	2	33.4		No				0	33		0	14	53	Yes		2,356	*
23		4	17		-	1	35.2		No					35		0	9	56	Yes		985	*
22		3	17		-	2	33.4		No					33			4	62	Yes		467	*
21		3	18		-	1	31.4		No					31			5	64	Yes		153	*
20		3	19		-	0	35.8		No					36			4	60	Yes		81	*
19		2	19		-	1	38.5		No					38				62	Yes		26	*
18		2	20		-	0	25.0		No					25				75	Yes		8	*
17		1	20		-	1	25.0		No					25				75	Yes		4	*
16		1	21		-	0	Out		No									100	Yes		1
14		0	22		-	0	0.3		No					0				100	Yes		398

Total:							66.3	%	0.2	%	2	7	25	32	18	9	5	1	14.7	%	2,562,736

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Wednesday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Vancouver 1 Anaheim 3	-0.6
Toronto 3 Edmonton 5	+0.0
Winnipeg 1 Calgary 4	-0.0
Denver 0 Florida 1	+0.0
Pittsburgh 1 Phoenix 4	-0.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Thursday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New York vs Anaheim	+0.7+0.1+0.1-0.5-0.5-0.6
Pittsburgh vs Florida	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Vancouver vs Edmonton	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Calgary vs Ontario	-0.0+0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Last four teams qualify for first overall pick

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16

58		22	0		-	0	99	1
57		21	0		-	1	100
56		21	1		-	0	92	8
55		20	1		-	1	92	8
54		20	2		-	0	80	19	1
53		19	2		-	1	72	27	2
52		19	3		-	0	53	40	6	1
51		18	3		-	1	39	43	16	2	0
50		18	4		-	0	23	43	26	7	1	0	0
49		17	4		-	1	12	35	35	14	3	0	0
48		16	4		-	2	5	24	38	24	8	1	0
47		16	5		-	1	2	12	32	34	16	3	0	0
46		15	5		-	2	0	5	20	35	28	10	1	0
45		15	6		-	1	0	1	9	27	36	21	5	0	0
44		14	6		-	2	0	0	3	16	34	33	13	1	0
43		14	7		-	1		0	1	6	23	39	25	6	0	0
42		13	7		-	2			0	2	11	33	37	15	2	0
		14	8		-	0			0	2	12	34	36	14	2	0	0
41		13	8		-	1			0	0	4	21	40	27	7	0	0
		12	7		-	3			0	0	4	20	40	28	8	1	0
40		12	8		-	2				0	1	9	32	38	17	3	0	0
		13	9		-	0			0	0	1	10	33	38	17	3	0	0
39		12	9		-	1				0	0	3	19	39	29	9	1	0
		11	8		-	3				0	0	3	17	38	31	10	1	0
38		11	9		-	2					0	1	7	28	38	21	5	0	0	0
		12	10		-	0				0	0	1	8	28	38	20	5	0	0
37		11	10		-	1						0	2	15	34	33	13	2	0	0
		10	9		-	3					0	0	2	13	33	33	15	3	0	0
36		10	10		-	2						0	0	5	21	36	27	9	1	0	0
		11	11		-	0						0	0	5	22	36	26	9	1	0	0
35		10	11		-	1							0	1	10	28	35	20	6	1	0
		9	10		-	3							0	1	8	26	35	22	7	1	0
34		9	11		-	2							0	0	3	14	31	32	16	3	0	0
		10	12		-	0							0	0	3	15	32	32	15	3	0
33		9	12		-	1								0	1	5	19	34	28	11	2	0
32		8	12		-	2								0	0	1	9	25	36	23	6	0
31		8	13		-	1									0	0	3	14	32	34	15	2
30		7	13		-	2										0	1	6	22	39	28	5
29		7	14		-	1										0	0	2	11	34	41	12
28		6	14		-	2											0	0	5	24	47	23
27		6	15		-	1												0	1	14	47	38
26		5	15		-	2													0	7	40	53
25		5	16		-	1														3	31	66
24		4	16		-	2														1	23	76
23		4	17		-	1														1	16	84
22		3	17		-	2															8	92
21		3	18		-	1															4	96
20		3	19		-	0															4	96
19		2	19		-	1															4	96
14	-18																					100

Total:							0	1	1	3	5	8	11	13	13	12	10	8	6	4	3	1