Plymouth County All Stars Playoff Chances SBFallWinter201920 50/50

Lost to Bevman 0-1, playoff odds down 0.7 to 98.4%

16 points 7 6-0 2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars 0 Bevman 1	-0.7		-0.1
Ducks 7 Brewskis 3	+0.7
WoodfordLawBoxers 2 ATCJets 5	+0.6

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 3/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars vs SSFlyers	+1.2+0.3-1.2		+0.2-0.0-0.2
Ducks vs WoodfordLawBoxers	+0.8*-0.1-0.8
FightingSquirrels vs Brewskis	+0.6*+0.1-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

Chances based on how well the PlymouthCountyAllStars finish out the regular season. Explain

												100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chowder		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Cup		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

30	7	0		-	0	0		In		0.4	%	72	28							4,187
29	6	0		-	0	1		In		No		45	55							6,396
28	6	1		-	0	0		In		No		25	69	6						29,285
	5	0		-	0	2		In		No		22	73	5						4,248
27	5	1		-	0	1		In		No		6	70	24						38,545
	4	0		-	0	3		In		No		4	73	23						1,541
26	5	2		-	0	0		In		No		1	48	50						87,566
	4	1		-	0	2		In		No		1	43	56						21,723
	3	0		-	0	4		In		No		1	44	55						379
25	4	2		-	0	1		In		No			25	75						97,174
	3	1		-	0	3		In		No			20	80						6,362
	2	0		-	0	5		In		No			13	88						40
24	4	3		-	0	0		In		No			8	91	1					145,817
	3	2		-	0	2		In		No			5	94	1					43,589
	2	1		-	0	4		In		No			3	97	1					1,104
	1	0		-	0	6		In		No				100						4
23	3	3		-	0	1		In		No			3	96	2					129,965
	2	2		-	0	3		In		No			1	97	2					9,460
	1	1		-	0	5		In		No				98	2					103
22	3	4		-	0	0		In		No				94	6					145,905
	2	3		-	0	2		In		No				94	6					42,998
	1	2		-	0	4		In		No				93	7					1,076
	0	1		-	0	6		In		No				100						6
21	2	4		-	0	1		99.9	%	No				85	14	0				97,875
	1	3		-	0	3		100.0		No				87	13	0				6,233
	0	2		-	0	5		In		No				93	7					44
20	2	5		-	0	0		99.0		No				69	30	1				87,215
	1	4		-	0	2		99.0		No				69	30	1				21,796
	0	3		-	0	4		99.7		No				70	30	0				354
19	1	5		-	0	1		92.6		No				44	49	7				38,867
	0	4		-	0	3		93.7		No				45	48	6				1,632
18	1	6		-	0	0		78.8		No				21	58	21				28,972
	0	5		-	0	2		75.9		No				20	56	24				4,282
17	0	6		-	0	1		48.5		No				5	44	52				6,475
16	0	7		-	0	0		25.8		No				1	25	74				4,286

Total:								98.4	%	0.0	%	2	14	74	10	2				1,115,504

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 3/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars 0 Bevman 1	+2.3
BashBros 4 LuckyDawgs 6	+0.1
Haulers 4 Blackbeers 5	+0.1
PourSports 5 AnnasHarborsideGrille 2	+0.1
Ticklefight 9 HighWide 2	+0.1
WoodfordLawBoxers 2 ATCJets 5	+0.1
Chiefs 10 WFD 4	-0.0
RocklandLiquors 4 Hogbuffs 5	+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 3/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars vs SSFlyers	-2.4+0.0+2.4
Blackbeers vs ATCJets	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Sullivans vs AnnasHarborsideGrille	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Surge vs LuckyDawgs	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Ticklefight vs Hogbuffs	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Rangers vs SurgeSouth	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Chiefs vs RocklandLiquors	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Chiefs vs SilkyMitts	-0.1-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43

30	7	0		-	0	0		0	6	21	31	25	12	3	1
29	6	0		-	0	1			0	3	12	24	30	22	8	2	0
28	6	1		-	0	0			0	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	4	0	0
	5	0		-	0	2			0	0	1	5	17	27	29	16	4	0	0
27	5	1		-	0	1					0	0	1	7	20	31	26	12	3	0	0
	4	0		-	0	3						0	1	6	19	32	27	12	4	0	0
26	5	2		-	0	0						0	0	0	2	9	23	30	22	10	3	0	0
	4	1		-	0	2							0	0	2	9	23	30	23	10	3	0	0
	3	0		-	0	4									2	8	27	30	20	8	3	0
25	4	2		-	0	1									0	0	3	11	22	26	21	11	4	1	0	0	0
	3	1		-	0	3										0	2	10	21	27	22	12	5	1	0
	2	0		-	0	5												13	8	38	20	10	3	10
24	4	3		-	0	0										0	0	1	4	12	22	25	20	11	5	1	0	0
	3	2		-	0	2											0	1	4	12	22	25	20	11	5	1	0	0
	2	1		-	0	4												1	4	13	20	24	21	11	4	1	0
	1	0		-	0	6														25		50		25
23	3	3		-	0	1												0	0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	6	2	0	0	0
	2	2		-	0	3													0	1	3	9	17	24	23	15	6	2	0		0
	1	1		-	0	5															4	8	19	20	27	15	6	1
22	3	4		-	0	0														0	0	1	3	7	13	19	22	19	11	4	1	0	0
	2	3		-	0	2														0	0	1	3	7	13	19	23	19	11	4	1	0	0
	1	2		-	0	4																1	3	7	13	19	23	19	10	3	1	0
	0	1		-	0	6																	17		17		67
21	2	4		-	0	1																0	0	0	1	2	8	17	25	23	15	6	2	0	0	0
	1	3		-	0	3																	0	0	1	3	8	17	25	24	14	6	1	0	0
	0	2		-	0	5																					14	9	30	18	23	7
20	2	5		-	0	0																			0	0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
	1	4		-	0	2																				0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0
	0	3		-	0	4																						1	4	11	19	27	19	11	7	1	0		0
19	1	5		-	0	1																						0	0	0	2	7	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
	0	4		-	0	3																								0	2	7	16	21	23	15	11	4	1	0
18	1	6		-	0	0																									0	0	1	3	7	15	20	22	17	10	4	1	0	0
	0	5		-	0	2																										0	1	3	8	15	22	21	16	10	4	1	0
17	0	6		-	0	1																											0	0	0	2	5	12	20	22	18	13	6	2	0	0
16	0	7		-	0	0																															0	0	1	5	14	20	23	20	11	4	1	0

Total:								0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	5	6	6	7	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	4	3	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0