Plymouth County All Stars Playoff Chances SBFallWinter201920

Lost to Bevman 0-1, playoff odds down 0.2 to 99.5%

16 points 7 6-0 2

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 3/9	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars 0 Bevman 1	-0.2		-0.1
Ducks 7 Brewskis 3	+0.2
WoodfordLawBoxers 2 ATCJets 5	+0.2

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 3/16	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars vs SSFlyers	+0.4+0.2-0.2		+0.2+0.0-0.1
Ducks vs WoodfordLawBoxers	+0.2-0.2-0.4
FightingSquirrels vs Brewskis	+0.2-0.1-0.4

Chances based on how well the PlymouthCountyAllStars finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance in		Chowder	Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	playoffs		Cup	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	Count

30	7	0		-	0	0		In		No	37	63							5,542
29	6	0		-	0	1		In		No	14	86							9,901
28	6	1		-	0	0		In		No	5	78	17						51,142
	5	0		-	0	2		In		No	4	79	17						7,678
27	5	1		-	0	1		In		No	0	55	45						80,366
	4	0		-	0	3		In		No	0	57	43						3,259
26	5	2		-	0	0		In		No	0	26	74						204,627
	4	1		-	0	2		In		No	0	24	76						50,905
	3	0		-	0	4		In		No		22	78						874
25	4	2		-	0	1		In		No		11	89						258,701
	3	1		-	0	3		In		No		8	92						17,113
	2	0		-	0	5		In		No		5	95						128
24	4	3		-	0	0		In		No		2	98	0					434,061
	3	2		-	0	2		In		No		1	99	0					127,772
	2	1		-	0	4		In		No		1	99	0					3,100
	1	0		-	0	6		In		No			100						10
23	3	3		-	0	1		In		No		1	99	0					425,152
	2	2		-	0	3		In		No		0	100	0					31,288
	1	1		-	0	5		In		No			100						319
	0	0		-	0	7		In		No			100						1
22	3	4		-	0	0		In		No			99	1					522,987
	2	3		-	0	2		In		No			99	1					153,072
	1	2		-	0	4		In		No			99	1					3,614
	0	1		-	0	6		In		No			100						11
21	2	4		-	0	1		100.0	%	No			98	2	0				370,809
	1	3		-	0	3		In		No			98	2					24,449
	0	2		-	0	5		In		No			97	3					181
20	2	5		-	0	0		100.0		No			93	7	0				353,634
	1	4		-	0	2		100.0		No			93	7	0				86,002
	0	3		-	0	4		In		No			94	6					1,403
19	1	5		-	0	1		99.5		No			80	19	1				162,534
	0	4		-	0	3		99.5		No			82	18	0				6,605
18	1	6		-	0	0		96.8		No			60	37	3				125,744
	0	5		-	0	2		96.3		No			56	40	4				18,579
17	0	6		-	0	1		83.0		No			24	59	17				27,769
16	0	7		-	0	0		60.4		No			6	54	40				18,470

Total:								99.5	%	No	0	6	89	4	0				3,587,802

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Week of 3/9	100.0*	Lottery seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars 0 Bevman 1	+1.9
PourSports 5 AnnasHarborsideGrille 2	+0.1
BashBros 4 LuckyDawgs 6	+0.1
Haulers 4 Blackbeers 5	+0.1
Ticklefight 9 HighWide 2	+0.1
Beavers 5 Cyclones 1	-0.1
Chiefs 10 WFD 4	-0.0
FightingSquirrels 4 Dynamo 3	-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 3/16	100.0*	Lottery seed
PlymouthCountyAllStars vs SSFlyers	-2.6-0.7+1.4
Blackbeers vs ATCJets	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Ticklefight vs Hogbuffs	+0.2+0.0-0.1
Sullivans vs AnnasHarborsideGrille	+0.2+0.0-0.1
Rangers vs SurgeSouth	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Surge vs LuckyDawgs	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Chiefs vs SilkyMitts	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Chiefs vs RocklandLiquors	+0.1*+0.0-0.0
WFD vs Triceratopshelf	-0.1-0.1+0.0
Cyclones vs Sharks	+0.0-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

								100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:								Chance will finish season at seed
TP	W		L	-	OT		T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42	43

30	7	0		-	0	0			0	1	8	25	35	24	6	0
29	6	0		-	0	1				0	0	3	16	35	33	11	1	0
28	6	1		-	0	0					0	0	2	10	30	36	18	4	0	0
	5	0		-	0	2						0	2	11	31	36	17	3	0
27	5	1		-	0	1							0	0	5	18	32	28	13	3	0	0
	4	0		-	0	3								1	4	18	32	28	13	3	0
26	5	2		-	0	0								0	0	1	8	23	33	23	9	2	0	0	0
	4	1		-	0	2								0	0	1	8	24	33	23	9	2	0	0	0
	3	0		-	0	4										1	9	26	29	25	7	2	0
25	4	2		-	0	1										0	0	3	12	24	28	20	9	3	1	0	0
	3	1		-	0	3										0	0	2	11	24	28	21	10	3	0	0
	2	0		-	0	5												3	12	21	29	18	13	5
24	4	3		-	0	0											0	0	1	6	15	24	25	18	8	3	0	0	0
	3	2		-	0	2											0	0	1	6	15	24	25	17	8	3	0	0
	2	1		-	0	4												0	1	5	15	24	25	17	9	3	0	0
	1	0		-	0	6													10		30	10	20	30
23	3	3		-	0	1													0	0	1	6	15	25	27	18	7	1	0	0
	2	2		-	0	3													0	0	1	6	15	25	27	17	7	1	0	0
	1	1		-	0	5														0	1	6	12	30	29	16	5	0
	0	0		-	0	7																				100
22	3	4		-	0	0														0	0	0	2	6	14	24	27	18	7	2	0	0
	2	3		-	0	2														0	0	0	2	6	14	24	27	18	7	1	0	0
	1	2		-	0	4															0	0	2	6	15	24	27	17	8	1	0
	0	1		-	0	6																		9	27	18	27	18
21	2	4		-	0	1																	0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	5	1	0	0	0	0
	1	3		-	0	3																	0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	5	1	0	0
	0	2		-	0	5																		3	1	4	14	33	25	17	3	1
20	2	5		-	0	0																	0	0	0	0	1	5	14	25	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
	1	4		-	0	2																			0	0	1	5	14	25	26	18	8	2	0	0	0
	0	3		-	0	4																			0	0	1	4	15	25	28	17	7	2	0		0
19	1	5		-	0	1																					0	0	1	4	12	21	25	20	11	4	1	0	0	0
	0	4		-	0	3																						0	0	4	12	22	26	20	11	4	1	0	0
18	1	6		-	0	0																							0	0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0
	0	5		-	0	2																								0	0	2	6	14	22	23	18	9	4	1	0	0
17	0	6		-	0	1																										0	0	1	4	10	17	22	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
16	0	7		-	0	0																													0	0	1	4	10	18	24	21	14	6	2	0	0

Total:									0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	3	4	4	5	6	7	7	8	8	8	7	6	5	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0