How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 3/9100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
PourSports 5 AnnasHarborsideGrille 2 -2.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 3/16100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
JagrBombs vs PourSports+24.1+3.9-8.0
+0.3+0.0-0.1
Sullivans vs AnnasHarborsideGrille-14.5-5.7+7.0
-0.2-0.1+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the JagrBombs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChowderChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTTplayoffsCup12345678Count
2550-00InNo1774912,884
2440-0199.4%No24850120,948
2341-0095.5No030654127,287
30-0296.0No02769413,695
2231-0179.8No67420161,743
20-0378.8No475214,159
2132-0064.8No26335470,325
21-0264.1No1633672,548
10-0459.4No15941611
2022-0138.2No03862415,668
11-0338.0No0386214,032
00-0548.8No495141
1923-0025.2No2575775,411
12-0224.6No2575117,502
01-0425.7No2674972
1813-019.2No991428,142
02-038.8No99110,740
1714-004.2No496574,573
03-023.9No49657,530
1604-010.5No199151,471
1505-00OutNo100157,520
Total:30.9%No0229693,587,802
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 3/9100.0*Lottery seed
IceAge 3 Sharks 6 -0.2
FightingSquirrels 4 Dynamo 3 -0.1
Beavers 5 Cyclones 1 -0.1
Ducks 7 Brewskis 3 -0.1
Ticklefight 9 HighWide 2 +0.1
WoodfordLawBoxers 2 ATCJets 5 -0.1
BashBros 4 LuckyDawgs 6 -0.0
PlymouthCountyAllStars 0 Bevman 1 -0.0
Haulers 4 Blackbeers 5 -0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
SilkyMitts vs NESHLSouth-0.1+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 3/16100.0*Lottery seed
JagrBombs vs PourSports-3.4-1.1+1.2
MooseKnuckles vs Magoos-0.1+0.0+0.2
Cyclones vs Sharks+0.1-0.1-0.2
Chiefs vs RocklandLiquors+0.2+0.1-0.1
Sullivans vs AnnasHarborsideGrille+0.2+0.0-0.1
Ticklefight vs Hogbuffs+0.1+0.1-0.1
FightingSquirrels vs Brewskis-0.0+0.0+0.1
Chiefs vs SilkyMitts+0.1+0.0-0.1
PlymouthCountyAllStars vs SSFlyers+0.1+0.0-0.0
Ducks vs WoodfordLawBoxers-0.0+0.0+0.1
Bevman vs Haulers-0.0*+0.0+0.1
WFD vs Triceratopshelf+0.1-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OTT12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243
2550-0001721302512410
2440-0101718282514510
2341-000039202723134100
30-020031020272412410
2231-0100028182725155100
20-0302616262715610
2132-0000016172727165100
21-020016162727165100
10-040151629261561
2022-010016152627176100
11-03015152628177200
00-0525122732157
1923-00001413252819820000
12-02001414262718820000
01-04004152626197200
1813-0100131019252213620000
02-0300381825231562000
1714-00000141120252112510000
03-020001512212419114100
1604-01001412222620114100
1505-000003818262414510
Total:000000112234666799765554322211000