SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Green Bay Packers Title Chances 2014 50/50

Did not play, title odds down 1 to 37.6%

10-0-4 .714

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/18	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 27 Philadelphia 24	-1.1		+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay	-18.8+13.9+18.7		-0.6+0.3+0.6
Chicago vs Detroit	+6.3+5.3-6.4		+0.1+0.1-0.1
Arizona vs Seattle	+6.3+6.1-6.3		+0.2+0.2-0.2

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Average seed
Green Bay vs Detroit	+31.2+3.2-31.3		+0.8+0.1-0.8
Washington vs Dallas	+9.4*+0.7-9.5		+0.3*+0.0-0.3
Seattle vs St. Louis	-6.3+5.3+6.2		-0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Green Bay finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance		Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

12		2	-	0	-	0	In						75	25											296,342
11	.5	1	-	1	-	0	85.1	%					43	42	13	1									4,736
11		1	-	0	-	1	25.2						3	22	47	28									593,892
		0	-	2	-	0	38.5						8	31	42	19									26
10	.5	0	-	1	-	1	6.3							6	37	57									4,599
10		0	-	0	-	2	Out									100									296,293

Total:							37.6	%					20	17	23	39									1,195,888

Games Above .500

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 12/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington 27 Philadelphia 24	+0.7
Jacksonville 21 Tennessee 13	+0.1
San Francisco 35 San Diego 38	-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Arizona vs Seattle	+0.8+0.3-0.8
Oakland vs Buffalo	+0.6+0.4-0.7
Carolina vs Cleveland	-0.6*+0.0+0.6
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay	-0.6*+0.0+0.6
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City	+0.6+0.2-0.6
Cincinnati vs Denver	+0.5+0.3-0.5
Miami vs Minnesota	+0.5*+0.1-0.5
Houston vs Baltimore	-0.1+0.4+0.1
St. Louis vs NY Giants	-0.2+0.3+0.2
Dallas vs Indianapolis	+0.1+0.2-0.1
Chicago vs Detroit	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
New Orleans vs Atlanta	+0.0-0.1-0.0
NY Jets vs New England	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
Green Bay vs Detroit	+1.6-0.0-1.6
NY Giants vs Philadelphia	+1.0+0.2-1.0
Seattle vs St. Louis	-0.8+0.2+0.8
Washington vs Dallas	-0.1+0.3+0.1
Atlanta vs Carolina	-0.1+0.1+0.1
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Minnesota vs Chicago	-0.1-0.1+0.1
New England vs Buffalo	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Denver vs Oakland	+0.1+0.0-0.1
San Francisco vs Arizona	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Baltimore vs Cleveland	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Kansas City vs San Diego	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

12		2	-	0	-	0															0	0	0	1	2	6	9	11	13	14	14	13	10	6	2	0	0
11	.5	1	-	1	-	0																0	1	2	5	12	14	15	14	12	10	8	5	3	1
11		1	-	0	-	1														0	0	1	3	6	11	16	17	14	11	8	6	4	2	1	0	0
		0	-	2	-	0																		4	8	38	8	15	8	8	4		4	4
10	.5	0	-	1	-	1															0	1	4	10	17	21	19	11	8	4	2	1	0	0	0
10		0	-	0	-	2													0	0	1	3	8	14	22	23	15	8	4	2	1	0	0	0

Total:																			0	0	0	1	4	7	11	15	14	12	10	8	7	5	4	2	1	0	0