Green Bay Packers Title Chances 2014

Did not play, title odds down 0.7 to 71.6%
10-0-4   .714

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 12/18100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Washington 27 Philadelphia 24 -0.8
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay-69.3-10.6+4.0
-1.6-0.2+0.1
Chicago vs Detroit+0.7*+0.6-0.1
Arizona vs Seattle+0.4*-0.1-0.3
+0.4+0.4-0.3
Dallas vs Indianapolis-0.2*+0.3+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Green Bay vs Detroit+23.1-35.6-70.9
+0.5-0.6-1.7
Washington vs Dallas+2.1*+0.9-0.3
+0.2+0.1-0.0
Seattle vs St. Louis-0.2+1.3+1.4
-0.1+0.4+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Green Bay finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-Lwins title12345678910111213141516Count
122-0-0In50502,544,662
11.51-1-057.1%164134923,814
111-0-11.0011881967,599
0-2-03.43227559
10.50-1-10.4012884,165
100-0-2Out10047,365
Total:71.6%36365233,587,664
Games Above .500
Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 12/18100.0*Lottery seed
Washington 27 Philadelphia 24 +1.1
Jacksonville 21 Tennessee 13 +0.1
San Francisco 35 San Diego 38 -0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Arizona vs Seattle+0.9+0.4-0.6
Oakland vs Buffalo+1.0+0.8-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay-0.9-0.5+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City+0.4+0.2-0.4
Carolina vs Cleveland-0.4-0.1+0.3
Cincinnati vs Denver+0.5+0.4-0.3
Miami vs Minnesota+0.2-0.1-0.5
St. Louis vs NY Giants-0.1+0.3+0.2
Houston vs Baltimore-0.1+0.3+0.0
Chicago vs Detroit+0.3+0.1-0.0
Dallas vs Indianapolis+0.1+0.1-0.1
New Orleans vs Atlanta+0.0-0.1-0.1
NY Jets vs New England-0.1+0.0*+0.0
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28100.0*Lottery seed
Green Bay vs Detroit+0.6-0.7-2.0
NY Giants vs Philadelphia+1.4+0.7-0.6
Seattle vs St. Louis-0.3+0.9+1.5
San Francisco vs Arizona-0.1+0.2+0.0
Minnesota vs Chicago-0.0+0.0+0.2
Washington vs Dallas-0.1+0.2+0.0
Atlanta vs Carolina-0.0+0.1+0.1
Baltimore vs Cleveland-0.0+0.0+0.2
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans-0.1-0.2+0.0
New England vs Buffalo+0.0+0.0-0.1
Tennessee vs Indianapolis+0.1+0.0-0.0
Kansas City vs San Diego-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
122-0-000003222318129642100
11.51-1-00013123421138421000
111-0-10161427311252100000
0-2-0210253214152
10.50-1-10171731301031000
100-0-200211212928720000
Total:000241025191496531000