Dallas Cowboys Title Chances 2014 50/50

Did not play, title odds up 4.2 to 39.4%
10-0-4   .714

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

Week of 12/18100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Washington 27 Philadelphia 24 +4.2
+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Indianapolis+17.3+10.1-17.4
+0.4+0.2-0.4
Arizona vs Seattle+11.0+5.4-11.0
+0.2+0.1-0.2
Chicago vs Detroit+6.3+12.7-6.4
+0.2+0.3-0.2
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay+6.3+4.6-6.3
+0.3+0.1-0.3
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28100.0*Chance wins title100.0*Average seed
Washington vs Dallas-26.7+10.8+26.6
-0.6+0.3+0.6
Seattle vs St. Louis-11.0+5.3+10.9
-0.2+0.1+0.2
Green Bay vs Detroit+1.5+16.6-1.6
-0.1+0.4+0.1

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:ChanceChance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-Lwins title12345678910111213141516Count
122-0-087.7%513712296,793
11.51-1-087.038491304,679
111-0-134.72334223593,003
0-2-019.019334821
10.50-1-112.51251374,639
100-0-2Out3169296,753
Total:39.4%142632291,195,888
Games Above .500
Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 12/18100.0*Lottery seed
San Francisco 35 San Diego 38 +0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Baltimore-0.3+0.0+0.3
Cincinnati vs Denver+0.2-0.0-0.2
New Orleans vs Atlanta-0.2-0.1+0.2
Chicago vs Detroit-0.2-0.1+0.2
Carolina vs Cleveland-0.1-0.1+0.1
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City+0.1-0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay+0.1-0.0-0.1
St. Louis vs NY Giants+0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs New England+0.1*-0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28100.0*Lottery seed
Washington vs Dallas-0.3+0.1+0.3
Houston vs Jacksonville-0.2-0.0+0.2
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans+0.2-0.1-0.2
Minnesota vs Chicago+0.2-0.1-0.2
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati-0.1*+0.0+0.1
New England vs Buffalo-0.1-0.1+0.1
Denver vs Oakland-0.1-0.1+0.1
Kansas City vs San Diego+0.1-0.0-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets-0.1*-0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-D-L1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
122-0-0072864
11.51-1-01113455
111-0-1002173446
0-2-0103357
10.50-1-1012213937
100-0-200025264027
Total:00002173446