SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Dallas Cowboys Title Chances 2014

Did not play, title odds up 2.6 to 25.4%

10-0-4 .714

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 12/18	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Average seed
Washington 27 Philadelphia 24	+2.8		+0.1
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Dallas vs Indianapolis	+23.6+22.2-18.3		+0.6+0.5-0.4
Arizona vs Seattle	+21.9+16.1-15.9		+0.3+0.2-0.2
Chicago vs Detroit	+22.2+22.7-3.8		+0.6+0.6-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay	+22.9+18.7-1.4		+0.8+0.5-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28	100.0*	Chance wins title	100.0*	Average seed
Seattle vs St. Louis	-4.3+21.7+25.7		-0.1+0.3+0.4
Washington vs Dallas	-22.9-1.4+2.9		-0.8-0.1+0.1
Green Bay vs Detroit	-0.5+18.9+1.2		-0.1+0.6+0.3

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance		Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	wins title		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

12		2	-	0	-	0	54.5	%					8	46	45										1,373,603
11	.5	1	-	1	-	0	53.8						4	50	46	0									18,553
11		1	-	0	-	1	7.9						0	8	33	60									1,957,943
		0	-	2	-	0	6.6							7	10	84									61
10	.5	0	-	1	-	1	0.7							1	16	83									9,391
10		0	-	0	-	2	Out								3	97									228,113

Total:							25.4	%					3	22	36	39									3,587,664

Games Above .500

Chance Will Win Championship

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 12/18	100.0*	Lottery seed
San Francisco 35 San Diego 38	+0.2
If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Houston vs Baltimore	-0.5-0.1+0.3
Cincinnati vs Denver	+0.3-0.0-0.2
Chicago vs Detroit	-0.3-0.3+0.1
New Orleans vs Atlanta	-0.1-0.1+0.2
Carolina vs Cleveland	-0.2-0.2+0.2
Pittsburgh vs Kansas City	+0.1-0.2-0.1
St. Louis vs NY Giants	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Tampa Bay vs Green Bay	+0.1+0.0-0.0
NY Jets vs New England	+0.1+0.0-0.0

If winner is:HomeDrawAway
Week of 12/28	100.0*	Lottery seed
Washington vs Dallas	-0.7-0.3+0.1
Houston vs Jacksonville	-0.0+0.2+0.4
Minnesota vs Chicago	+0.1-0.3-0.3
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans	+0.3-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati	-0.1+0.1+0.2
New England vs Buffalo	-0.0-0.0+0.2
Denver vs Oakland	-0.0*-0.0+0.2
Kansas City vs San Diego	+0.0-0.1-0.1
Miami vs NY Jets	-0.0+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	D	-	L	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

12		2	-	0	-	0																												0	0	18	42	40
11	.5	1	-	1	-	0																												0	0	22	44	34
11		1	-	0	-	1																											0	0	0	20	42	37
		0	-	2	-	0																														21	51	28
10	.5	0	-	1	-	1																											0	1	2	35	46	17
10		0	-	0	-	2																											0	2	5	45	41	6

Total:																																	0	0	1	21	42	37