Tennessee Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Dolphins vs Titans-8.9*-0.5+8.9
-3.0-0.9+3.0
+1.7*-0.3-1.6
-1.1-0.0+1.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+1.1*-0.5-1.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.8*-0.2-0.8
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.6*-0.2+0.6
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets+0.4*+0.0-0.4
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*-0.6+0.3
-0.2*+0.4+0.2
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.3+0.3
-0.2*-0.2+0.2
Panthers vs Cowboys+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins+0.1*+0.3-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs-0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Titans vs Texans+10.4*-0.8-10.4
+2.9*-0.6-2.9
-1.6*-0.2+1.6
+1.2*-0.1-1.2
Redskins vs Colts+1.1*+0.7-1.1
+0.2*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.4-0.1
+0.1+0.1-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.8*-1.1+0.8
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Saints vs Browns+0.3*-1.0-0.3
+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens+0.1*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Titans finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No144*
1515-1-0In99.7%1000No322
14.514-1-1InYes100No61
1414-2-0In99.09910No2,514*
13.513-2-1In98.3982No466*
1313-3-0In93.694601No11,762
12-2-2In90.59072No42
12.512-3-1In87.9881002No2,115*
1212-4-0In74.975202030No38,123
11-3-2In78.2781623No165
11.511-4-1In60.661304060No6,275
10-3-3In60.0603010No10
1111-5-0100.0%36.6373711113100No90,645
10-4-2In35.43541101121No460*
10.510-5-199.818.01836203203000No14,176
9-4-3In14.31424195335No21
1010-6-098.05.962326924102000No166,099
9-5-298.46.46222492710100No1,046*
9.59-6-192.30.81924152320710No23,334
8-5-384.2No31813262416No38
99-7-068.40.1021218132319930000No235,636
8-6-271.60.1021417142418820No1,449*
8.58-7-137.0No03153152623113000No30,336
7-6-334.3No4131163713141No70
88-8-014.70.00019141322231782000No266,093
7-7-212.9No181314212517820No1,699
7.57-8-13.9No04002820282311310No29,961
6-7-37.8No4424162525164No51
77-9-01.4No010002716242416710No235,624
6-8-21.2No10271526261561No1,438*
6.56-9-10.2No00031225312071No23,416
5-8-3OutNo112134323No38
66-10-00.1No000131225312260.2%166,346
5-9-2OutNo031328292170.1959*
5.55-10-1OutNo002113038181.913,882
4-9-3OutNo1711676No18
55-11-0OutNo001418413711.390,431
4-10-2OutNo0215433911.5488*
4.54-11-1OutNo006346030.86,526
3-10-3OutNo13385050.08
44-12-0OutNo003237551.437,789
3-11-2OutNo4247152.7184
3.53-12-1OutNo0118975.72,242
33-13-0OutNo069485.611,560
2-12-2OutNo10088.945
2.52-13-1OutNo19996.8469
22-14-0OutNo19997.62,364*
1.51-14-1OutNo100Yes61
11-15-0OutNo010099.7344*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes143*
Total:37.6%6.3%66666666666666663.1%1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Dolphins vs Titans+2.1+0.0-2.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys+0.1-0.1-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Lions vs NY Jets+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Titans vs Texans-2.3+0.1+2.3
Redskins vs Colts-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.1-0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.0*+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-01000
14.514-1-1982
1414-2-097210
13.513-2-19622
1313-3-08686001
12-2-2811072
12.512-3-175131002
1212-4-0512319120300
11-3-2572115123
11.511-4-13129273400600
10-3-330303010
1111-5-011252710111101211000
10-4-2102532910011111
10.510-5-121619171823017330000
9-4-31419519524105
1010-6-00661717981159912000
9-5-206615167811710100100
9.59-6-10109816132814173610
8-5-33316113111616816
99-7-00022101082111113151052000
8-6-2022111082121014149510
8.58-7-100341003114111918104100
7-6-34671114102320111
88-8-00001170104261115161411631000
7-7-211701031710141616127310
7.57-8-100400000261421221893100
6-7-3442161622254242
77-9-00010000012510141717141052100
6-8-2112691419181495110
6.56-9-100001310192422135100
5-8-331182434165
66-10-000001251117212014720
5-9-200251016242214620
5.55-10-101310212824112
4-9-3111122281117
55-11-000013920302711
4-10-21720312911
4.54-11-10016214131
3-10-3252550
44-12-00002113651
3-11-22123353
3.53-12-1022276
33-13-0011486
2-12-21189
2.52-13-1397
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333