SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Tennessee Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.6%

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Dolphins vs Titans	-7.8*+0.4+10.2		-2.7*-0.1+3.6		+1.4-0.4-1.8		-0.9+0.1+1.2
NY Giants vs Jaguars	+1.0*+0.4-1.3		+0.1*+0.0-0.2		+0.1*-0.2-0.1		+0.1+0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans	+0.7*+0.2-1.0				+0.1*-0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals	-0.5*+0.3+0.7		+0.1*+0.3-0.2		-0.1*+0.1+0.2
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.3*-0.1+0.4		-0.2*-0.0+0.2				-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.3*+0.2+0.4		-0.1*+0.1+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets	+0.2*+0.3-0.3		+0.1*+0.2-0.2		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs			+0.1*-0.0-0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins					+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys					+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons					-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills							-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Titans vs Texans	+9.1-1.7-11.9		+2.4-0.8-3.2		-1.5*-0.0+1.9		+1.0-0.2-1.4
Redskins vs Colts	+1.0*-0.2-1.3		+0.1*-0.1-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots	-0.7*-0.1+0.9				-0.1*+0.1+0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns	+0.3*-0.4-0.4		+0.2*-0.4-0.2				+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles					+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens					+0.1*-0.3-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Titans finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		417	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.9	%	100	0															No		885
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		185
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.2		99	1			0												No		6,947	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.4		98	2															No		1,481	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		94.3		94	5	0		0												No		33,428
		12	-	2	-	2	In		93.9		94	6															No		147
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.9		90	9	0		1												No		6,197	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		75.8		76	19	1	0	3	0											No		111,657
		11	-	3	-	2	In		74.5		74	20	2		4												No		588
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		61.7		62	29	3	0	6	0											No		18,830
		10	-	3	-	3	In		59.3		59	33			7												No		27
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	37.8		38	37	11	1	12	1	0	0									No		272,911
		10	-	4	-	2	In		37.7		38	39	12	1	10	1											No		1,460
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		19.0		19	37	19	3	19	2	0										No		42,706
		9	-	4	-	3	In		23.0		23	36	15	2	23	2											No		61
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.1		6.4		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		506,555
		9	-	5	-	2	98.3		6.7		7	23	26	8	25	9	2	0									No		2,943	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.8		1.0		1	10	24	15	24	20	6	1	0								No		71,807
		8	-	5	-	3	91.9		1.6		2	11	21	13	23	22	7	1									No		123
9		9	-	7	-	0	69.0		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		728,217
		8	-	6	-	2	69.2		0.1		0	2	12	19	12	23	19	9	3	0	0						No		4,544	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.6		No			0	4	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	0	0	0				No		92,997
		7	-	6	-	3	30.3		No				3	13	5	9	31	23	11	3	1						No		175
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.8		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0	0	No		821,529
		7	-	7	-	2	14.1		No				1	8	1	5	13	23	23	16	8	2	0	0			No		5,199	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0		No		92,012
		6	-	7	-	3	2.7		No					2		1	3	9	19	32	23	6	3	1			No		149
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0	No		727,436
		6	-	8	-	2	1.3		No				0	1		0	0	2	6	16	25	25	16	7	2	0	No		4,431	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.2		No					0			0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	No		71,608
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											1	12	21	34	22	8	1	No		140	*
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	12	24	31	22	6	0.3	%	505,390
		5	-	9	-	2	0.1		No					0						0	3	10	25	33	22	7	0.2		3,056	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0.0		No					0						0	0	2	10	29	39	19	2.0		42,269
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													1	7	21	46	24	4.2		71
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	0	4	17	41	38	12.0		271,947
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													0	4	17	39	40	11.8		1,528	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	0	6	32	61	32.6		19,072
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No																44	56	29.6		27
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No														0	2	22	76	53.1		111,529
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No														0	2	20	79	55.1		548
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No														0	0	10	90	77.5		6,221	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No														0	0	6	94	86.7		33,518
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																5	95	90.9		110
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	94.9		1,432
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.6		6,955	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																0	100	98.5		205
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																0	100	99.5		883
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		423	*

Total:							37.6	%	6.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dolphins vs Titans	+1.9-0.2-2.4
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.1-0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys	+0.0*-0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins	+0.0*-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Titans vs Texans	-2.0+0.3+2.7
Redskins vs Colts	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles	+0.0-0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens	+0.0-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	100	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	1	1						0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	3	2
13		13	-	3	-	0	87	8	5	0	0				0
		12	-	2	-	2	88	5	6
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	77	13	9	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	53	22	19	1	1	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	54	20	20	0	2				4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	33	29	26	2	3	0	0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	48	11	30	4					7
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	26	27	9	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	25	30	9	12	1	1		9	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	20	17	18	2	3	0	17	2	2	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	5	18	18	18	11	3	2		20	3	2
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	16	9	9	1	2	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	6	7	16	17	10	8	1	16	9	8	1	1	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	0	1	0	9	9	15	13	2	9	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		2		11	4	17	10	3	7	15	21	1	7		1
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	14	10	5	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0	0	2	2	10	11	8	2	10	11	12	15	10	5	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	3	5	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						3	4	9		5		9	15	17	23	10	4	1
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						1	1	7		1	0	4	2	6	12	16	15	14	11	6	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0		0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3							1	1				1			1	2	7	10	28	29	13	4	1	1	1
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	10	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2						0	0	1				0				0	0	2	5	9	14	17	17	16	10	6	2	1	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0										0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																						1	9	23	20	20	20	8
6		6	-	10	-	0								0										0		0	0	0	2	5	10	17	21	20	15	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0													0	0	1	5	9	16	21	22	15	8	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1								0															0	0	0	3	9	20	29	24	12	2
		4	-	9	-	3																										1	7	23	20	23	23	4
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	1	2	8	19	30	28	12
		4	-	10	-	2																									0	0	2	9	20	27	29	12
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																											0	1	5	21	41	33
		3	-	10	-	3																													4	19	48	30
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	10	35	53
		3	-	11	-	2																													2	10	33	55
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	20	78
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	12	87
		2	-	12	-	2																														1	8	91
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																														0	5	95
2		2	-	14	-	0																														0	2	98
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																														0	1	99
1		1	-	15	-	0																															0	100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3