Pittsburgh Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Browns vs Steelers-9.2+0.8+12.1
-2.7*-0.2+3.5
+1.3-0.4-1.7
-1.0+0.1+1.4
Colts vs Bengals+0.5*-0.1-0.7
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Ravens vs Bills-0.5*+0.2+0.7
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.2
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3+0.8+0.4
-0.1*+0.4+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*-0.4-0.4
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets+0.3*+0.0-0.4
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.2*+0.2+0.3
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*+0.5-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Steelers vs Chiefs+7.6-1.9-9.9
+2.4-0.8-3.2
-1.5*-0.0+2.0
+0.9-0.2-1.2
Saints vs Browns+1.0*-0.2-1.3
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.2*-0.2-0.2
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.1*+0.5+0.1
-0.1*+0.4+0.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Steelers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No418*
1515-1-0In99.9%1000No899
14.514-1-1In99.0991No195
1414-2-0In98.99910No6,968*
13.513-2-1In97.7982No1,348*
1313-3-0In94.294500No33,480
12-2-2In94.6955No147*
12.512-3-1In89.489901No6,141*
1212-4-0In75.776192030No111,106
11-3-2In75.07520104No520
11.511-4-1In61.561284060No18,782
10-3-3In59.3593344No27
1111-5-0100.0%37.9383711112100No272,258
10-4-2In37.93838111121No1,516*
10.510-5-199.918.819371931920No42,669
9-4-3In19.11944191133No68
1010-6-098.16.46232692410200No505,533
9-5-298.36.162427825920No3,074*
9.59-6-192.70.91924152420610No71,708
8-5-390.84.65121913231981No131
99-7-068.90.102121813231993000No727,754
8-6-269.80.10312181224189300No4,569*
8.58-7-137.2No03153152622113000No93,047
7-6-337.7No5143152523103No175
88-8-014.7No0191413222316820000No821,346
7-7-215.3No01915122224177200No5,167*
7.57-8-13.7No03002820282311300No92,853
6-7-33.2No31292422251041No186
77-9-01.3No010002716242516710No727,720
6-8-21.0No102616242617710No4,695*
6.56-9-10.3No000311253121710.0%71,559
5-8-3OutNo21035252341No123
66-10-00.1No000131125312260.3506,727
5-9-20.1No00031025322460.23,015*
5.55-10-10.0No0002102940192.242,507
4-9-3OutNo88234418No66
55-11-00.0No0000417403812.1272,810
4-10-2OutNo00416394112.51,492*
4.54-11-1OutNo06336132.119,150
3-10-3OutNo10177244.829
44-12-0OutNo002227653.3110,871
3-11-2OutNo2207956.6583*
3.53-12-1OutNo0109077.66,133*
33-13-0OutNo069486.833,255
2-12-2OutNo169483.5139
2.52-13-1OutNo029894.41,403*
22-14-0OutNo19997.67,086*
1.51-14-1OutNo100Yes215
11-15-0OutNo010099.7892*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes421*
Total:37.5%6.2%66666666666666663.1%4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Browns vs Steelers+2.0-0.3-2.6
Patriots vs Texans-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.0-0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Steelers vs Chiefs-1.9+0.3+2.4
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.1-0.2-0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-09910
14.514-1-19811
1414-2-097210
13.513-2-19532
1313-3-08785000
12-2-28775
12.512-3-177129001
1212-4-05323191200300
11-3-25322191104
11.511-4-1332826240600
10-3-3263330444
1111-5-01226279110101211000
10-4-21226271111011111
10.510-5-1217201818230173200
9-4-331629151811943
1010-6-0066171798116991200
9-5-206618189711698120
9.59-6-11099151329151736100
8-5-3511181111232016381
99-7-000221010821111121410520000
8-6-200321011721011131594100
8.58-7-100341103114112018104100
7-6-3521131149231313311
88-8-0001170104261115161411631000
7-7-2011810526111516151072100
7.57-8-1003000002613212318931000
6-7-33136152122161032
77-9-000100000125101417171510621000
6-8-2101259141718151053100
6.56-9-100001391824221462000
5-8-33102220231542
66-10-000000251017212015720
5-9-2000251017212016720
5.55-10-1000039202925112
4-9-3225914293011
55-11-0000002819302812
4-10-2013919282912
4.54-11-10015214132
3-10-37212845
44-12-00002103553
3-11-202103157
3.53-12-1022078
33-13-0011287
2-12-221483
2.52-13-10594
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333