Washington Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Cardinals vs Redskins-7.8+1.1+10.2
-2.8*+0.1+3.7
+1.4-0.5-1.8
-0.9+0.2+1.2
NY Giants vs Jaguars-1.0*+0.4+1.3
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys+0.7*-0.4-0.9
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons-0.7*+0.2+0.9
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.2*+0.0-0.2
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets-0.3*-0.3+0.4
-0.1*+0.1+0.2
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks+0.3*+0.0-0.4
+0.2*+0.0-0.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Packers vs Bears+0.1*+0.3-0.1
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1*+0.0-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Redskins vs Colts+6.4-1.4-8.4
+1.9-0.6-2.5
-1.5*-0.3+2.0
+0.7-0.2-1.0
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.7*-0.0-0.9
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.3*+0.3+0.4
-0.1*+0.2+0.2
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0-0.0+0.1
Packers vs Vikings+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
LA Rams vs Cardinals+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Redskins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
14.5-16InYes100No1,477*
1414-2-0In99.1%9910No7,077
13-1-2InYes100No18
13.513-2-1In98.19820No1,446*
1313-3-0In94.2945001No33,476
12-2-2In95.7964No115
12.512-3-1In89.690901No6,269*
1212-4-0In75.776192030No111,809
11-3-2In76.0762013No529*
11.511-4-1100.0%61.6622840600No18,986
10-3-3In60.5612613No38
1111-5-0100.037.738371111310No272,353
10-4-2In38.13838111110No1,456*
10.510-5-199.918.919371931920No42,712
9-4-3In15.61645192172No64
1010-6-098.16.362326924102000No505,369
9-5-298.57.4724259231010No3,062*
9.59-6-192.80.919241523206100No72,224
8-5-392.80.81102411232461No125
99-7-068.90.102121813231993000No725,898
8-6-269.60.1021318132420820No4,608*
8.58-7-137.3No04153152622113000No92,923
7-6-330.0No13153931271031No200
88-8-014.70.000191413222316820000No820,059
7-7-214.2No1905122324168210No5,233*
7.57-8-13.7No030028202823113000No92,930
6-7-33.0No3212202227104No167
77-9-01.3No010002716242517710No728,806
6-8-21.0No102616252517710No4,476*
6.56-9-10.3No0000311253121710.0%71,902
5-8-3OutNo3131336278No117
66-10-00.1No000131124322260.3505,330
5-9-20.0No00031125322360.23,004*
5.55-10-10.0No0002103039192.242,763
4-9-3OutNo103144151.281
55-11-00.0No0000417413812.1273,037
4-10-2OutNo00315414111.51,490*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326232.819,307
3-10-3OutNo435726.123
44-12-0OutNo002227653.3111,885
3-11-2OutNo01227755.7524
3.53-12-1OutNo0108976.86,266*
33-13-0OutNo0069486.533,410
2-12-2OutNo39785.5138*
2.52-13-1OutNo29894.21,370*
22-14-0OutNo19997.86,849
1-13-2OutNo100Yes20
1.51-14-1OutNo100Yes185
11-15-0OutNo010099.7940*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes430*
Total:37.5%6.2%66666666666666663.1%4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Cardinals vs Redskins+1.8-0.3-2.4
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.1-0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.0-0.1+0.1
Packers vs Bears-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.0+0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.0+0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Lions vs NY Jets+0.0*+0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Redskins vs Colts-1.8+0.3+2.3
Packers vs Vikings-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1+0.0+0.1
LA Rams vs Cardinals+0.1+0.0-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.0*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-0991
14.514-1-1100
1414-2-098110
13.513-2-195320
1313-3-087750001
12-2-28974
12.512-3-177139001
1212-4-0532319120300
11-3-2522419113
11.511-4-132292624006000
10-3-3213924313
1111-5-0122627911010121100
10-4-21226281011011010
10.510-5-12172018172301732000
9-4-31628171921622
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-207718178811589110
9.59-6-101099151329151736100
8-5-3128131110281521361
99-7-000221010821111121410520000
8-6-2002211118210111215104100
8.58-7-1003511031141120181031000
7-6-313693271723141331
88-8-0000117010426111516141163100000
7-7-211700426111616141173100
7.57-8-100300002613212318931000
6-7-312115112216241151
77-9-000100000125101417171510621000
6-8-2010025913181715106210
6.56-9-10001391824221462000
5-8-313151219271473
66-10-000000251017212015720
5-9-200025917212115720
5.55-10-1000139212924112
4-9-3111144122101
55-11-00000013819302812
4-10-2002819293011
4.54-11-10015204133
3-10-3264826
44-12-0002103553
3-11-22103256
3.53-12-1022177
33-13-0011387
2-12-211486
2.52-13-10694
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333