Baltimore Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.6%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Bills+8.8*-0.1-8.8
+3.1*-0.6-3.0
-1.6*-0.5+1.7
+1.1+0.0-1.1
Colts vs Bengals+0.6*-0.8-0.6
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Lions vs NY Jets+0.4*-0.7-0.4
+0.2*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.4*+0.4+0.4
-0.2*+0.4+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.5-0.3
+0.2*+0.3-0.2
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.5+0.3
-0.2*-0.1+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1*+0.2+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Bengals vs Ravens-10.5*-1.0+10.5
-3.0*-0.2+3.0
+1.6*-0.1-1.6
-1.2*-0.1+1.2
Saints vs Browns+1.2*-0.2-1.2
+0.2*-0.4-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs-0.8*-0.6+0.8
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*-0.2-0.3
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Titans vs Texans-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ravens finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
15-16InYes100No457*
14.514-1-1In98.6%991No73
1414-2-0In99.2991No2,504
13-1-2InYes100No7
13.513-2-1In98.0982No495
1313-3-0In93.794600No11,648
12-2-2InYes100No35
12.512-3-1In88.1881001No2,219*
1212-4-0In74.775202030No37,607
11-3-2In78.879174No170*
11.511-4-1In60.060304060No6,377
10-3-3In75.075178No12
1111-5-0100.0%36.637371111310No90,592
10-4-2In36.23638100141No461
10.510-5-199.918.218372031930No14,037
9-4-3In14.314241943No21
1010-6-098.06.16222692410200No165,793
9-5-298.96.97222511231110No966
9.59-6-192.60.919231523216100No23,246
8-5-390.23.9410298221882No51
99-7-068.60.1021218132319930000No236,741
8-6-270.90.1021319142319820No1,425*
8.58-7-137.00.0004153152623113000No29,966
7-6-341.8No272013182479No55
88-8-014.7No019141322231682000No266,704
7-7-214.1No181413222715620No1,637*
7.57-8-13.8No04002820282311300No30,153
6-7-32.3No227213519122No43
77-9-01.4No01002716252516710No236,380
6-8-20.5No10151726251862No1,491*
6.56-9-10.3No000031125322171No23,335
5-8-3OutNo2192331196No48
66-10-00.1No000141225312160.3%165,732
5-9-2OutNo131025342070.3991
5.55-10-10.0No0002103039182.014,021
4-9-3OutNo9413218No22
55-11-0OutNo000418413611.189,983
4-10-2OutNo1417384113.4539
4.54-11-1OutNo06336131.66,284
3-10-3OutNo9276436.411
44-12-0OutNo03227551.837,556
3-11-2OutNo13197851.9156
3.53-12-1OutNo00118974.72,107
2-11-3OutNo100Yes4
33-13-0OutNo069485.611,806
2-12-2OutNo138877.148
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.9469
22-14-0OutNo19997.52,469
1-13-2OutNo100Yes7
0-1.5OutNo10099.1534*
Total:37.6%6.3%66666666666666663.1%1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Bills-2.1-0.1+2.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Lions vs NY Jets-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Bengals vs Ravens+2.3+0.1-2.3
Saints vs Browns-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1-0.1+0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Redskins vs Colts-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-01000
14.514-1-1991
1414-2-09811
13.513-2-19442
1313-3-086860000
12-2-2919
12.512-3-1741410001
1212-4-05223191200300
11-3-261181524
11.511-4-1312928240600
10-3-33342888
1111-5-0112527101111121100
10-4-21026251310101321
10.510-5-1216191819231733000
9-4-3141014145385
1010-6-006617179811591012000
9-5-2077161691011581011
9.59-6-11098161339151746100
8-5-34101416881416210
99-7-00022101082111112141052000
8-6-20221110921211111494200
8.58-7-10004511031141119181031000
7-6-327911131113131552
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-21271041611161713117310
7.57-8-10030000261321231893100
6-7-32272128161652
77-9-00010000125101417171410521000
6-8-21125714191915115200
6.56-9-10001410182422145100
5-8-32171921231522
66-10-0000000251117212014720
5-9-200241117221917610
5.55-10-10001310213024102
4-9-35518272718
55-11-000013920302711
4-10-2121019282713
4.54-11-1015214132
3-10-39183636
44-12-0002113552
3-11-211103652
3.53-12-1022375
33-13-011386
2-12-222177
2.52-13-1496
22-14-00298
1.51-14-1100
11-15-0298
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333