Carolina Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Panthers vs Cowboys+8.9*-0.2-8.9
+3.0*-0.0-3.0
-1.6-0.5+1.7
+1.1+0.1-1.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.8*+0.4-0.8
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars-0.4*-0.1+0.4
-0.2*-0.1+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams+0.3*-0.1-0.3
+0.2*+0.0-0.2
Lions vs NY Jets-0.3*+0.2+0.3
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks+0.3*-0.1-0.3
+0.2*-0.0-0.2
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Colts vs Bengals+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bills-0.1*+0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Falcons vs Panthers-10.5*+0.0+10.5
-3.0*-0.2+3.0
+1.6-0.5-1.6
-1.2+0.0+1.2
Saints vs Browns-1.2*+0.1+1.2
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.8*+0.6+0.8
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Redskins vs Colts-0.4*+0.3+0.4
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bears vs Seahawks+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs-0.1*-0.1+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*-0.1-0.1
-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Panthers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
14.5-16InYes100No540*
1414-2-0In99.2%9910No2,490
13-1-2InYes100No10
13.513-2-1In97.69820No496*
1313-3-0In94.094500No11,623
12-2-2In97.4973No39
12.512-3-1In89.389901No2,091*
1212-4-0In74.775202030No37,948
11-3-2In75.1752015No169
11.511-4-1In60.060294060No6,546
10-3-3In66.7672211No9
1111-5-0100.0%36.737371211310No90,597
10-4-2In38.13835101150No478
10.510-5-1100.018.418362032030No14,034
9-4-3In15.8165316511No19
1010-6-098.06.16232692410200No166,041
9-5-298.47.572228823102No1,002*
9.59-6-192.10.919231523207100No23,125
8-5-387.5No2114141820112No56
99-7-068.30.1021218132319930000No236,311
8-6-271.90.10214201323178300No1,560*
8.58-7-136.9No04153152623113100No30,250
7-6-345.7No2112302217114No46
88-8-014.6No0191413222316820000No265,549
7-7-214.3No1914152223176210No1,701*
7.57-8-13.8No04002920282311300No30,012
6-7-31.8No221116213316No57
77-9-01.4No01002716252516710No236,327
6-8-21.3No0101615262418610No1,407
6.56-9-10.3No00031225312171No23,471
5-8-3OutNo3151842183No33
66-10-00.1No000131225312160.3%166,199
5-9-2OutNo03132633205No1,005
5.55-10-10.0No0002113138181.913,856
4-9-3OutNo48363616No25
55-11-00.0No0000418413611.290,025
4-10-2OutNo1318403910.6502
4.54-11-1OutNo016336030.96,473
3-10-3OutNo11226744.49
44-12-0OutNo02227551.637,950
3-11-2OutNo11207852.5181
3.53-12-1OutNo0128876.22,136*
33-13-0OutNo069485.711,485
2-12-2OutNo39794.738
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.9508*
22-14-0OutNo19997.52,521
1-13-2OutNo10088.99
1.51-14-1OutNo10096.151
11-15-0OutNo010099.7339*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes139*
Total:37.5%6.3%66666666666666663.1%1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Panthers vs Cowboys-2.1-0.1+2.1
Colts vs Bengals+0.1+0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins+0.0*+0.1-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Falcons vs Panthers+2.3-0.1-2.3
Saints vs Browns+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks+0.1*-0.1-0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15-16100
14.514-1-1991
1414-2-098110
13-1-2100
13.513-2-194420
1313-3-08685000
12-2-29083
12.512-3-17712901
1212-4-0512319120300
11-3-252232015
11.511-4-1312927240600
1111-5-01126271011010121100
10-4-2122627810111410
10.510-5-1217191818230173300
9-4-316213216511
1010-6-00661717981159912000
9-5-217716189711589010
9.59-6-11098151328151737100
8-5-32141113271116494
99-7-000221010821111131510520000
8-6-2022121182101112139410
8.58-7-100441103214111918104100
7-6-3211222871511174
88-8-0001170104261115161411631000
7-7-211710427111616161152100
7.57-8-100300000261421231893100
6-7-3224921262575
77-9-00010000125101417171410521000
6-8-2001115815191615105210
6.56-9-10001410182422146200
5-8-3331224181821
66-10-000000251117212014720
5-9-2024111919221552
5.55-10-10001310212924102
4-9-341224281616
55-11-000013920302711
4-10-20141018263111
4.54-11-10016214131
44-12-0002113652
3-11-22133352
3.53-12-1022176
33-13-0011386
2-12-2595
2.52-13-1496
22-14-0397
1.51-14-1496
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333