SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

New York Giants Playoff Chances 2018 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.03 to 0.4%

1-7-0 .125

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

Week of 11/8	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
Tampa Bay 3 Washington 16	-0.1		+0.0
Philadelphia 20 Dallas 27	+0.1		-0.0
Kansas City 26 Arizona 14			+0.1
Chicago 34 Detroit 22			+0.1
Green Bay 31 Miami 12			-0.0
LA Rams 36 Seattle 31			+0.0
Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16			+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs NY Giants	-0.3*-0.0+0.3		-0.7+0.1+0.7

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/15	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants vs Tampa Bay	+0.4*Out-0.4		+0.7*+0.1-0.7
New Orleans vs Philadelphia	+0.1*+0.3-0.1		+0.0*+0.1-0.0
Washington vs Houston	-0.1*Out+0.1
Detroit vs Carolina			-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Arizona vs Oakland			-0.1+0.1+0.1
Atlanta vs Dallas			+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the NY Giants finish out the regular season. Explain

									100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

9		8	-	0	-	0	55.6	%			5	19	5	26	30	12	2	0							2,763
8	.5	7	-	0	-	1	44.4					33		11	22	22	11								18
8		7	-	1	-	0	4.8				0	3	0	2	10	23	31	22	8	1	0				21,112
7	.5	6	-	1	-	1	1.7					2			3	14	23	34	23	2	1				120
7		6	-	2	-	0	0.1					0			0	1	5	17	29	29	16	4	0	0	73,313
6	.5	5	-	2	-	1	Out										0	5	16	35	32	10	2		379
6		5	-	3	-	0	Out									0	0	0	3	13	30	33	17	3	147,045
5	.5	4	-	3	-	1	Out												0	3	15	41	31	11	582
5		4	-	4	-	0	Out												0	0	5	22	43	30	183,007
4	.5	3	-	4	-	1	Out														1	9	41	49	611
4		3	-	5	-	0	Out													0	0	3	25	72	146,571
3	.5	2	-	5	-	1	Out															1	11	88	319
3		2	-	6	-	0	Out															0	4	95	74,027
2	.5	1	-	6	-	1	Out																2	98	128
2		1	-	7	-	0	Out																0	100	20,629
1	-1.5						Out																	100	2,704	*

Total:							0.4	%			0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	4	6	10	14	21	38	673,328

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Week of 11/8	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cleveland 28 Atlanta 16	+0.1
Oakland 6 LA Chargers 20	-0.1
Chicago 34 Detroit 22	-0.1
Cincinnati 14 New Orleans 51	-0.1
Kansas City 26 Arizona 14	-0.1
Pittsburgh 52 Carolina 21	+0.1
Tampa Bay 3 Washington 16	-0.1
LA Rams 36 Seattle 31	-0.0
Tennessee 34 New England 10	-0.0
Indianapolis 29 Jacksonville 26	+0.0
Philadelphia 20 Dallas 27	+0.0
NY Jets 10 Buffalo 41	+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
San Francisco vs NY Giants	+1.4-0.1-1.4

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 11/15	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants vs Tampa Bay	-1.3+0.0+1.4
LA Chargers vs Denver	-0.1-0.7+0.1
Detroit vs Carolina	+0.2*+0.0-0.2
Indianapolis vs Tennessee	+0.0+0.2-0.0
New Orleans vs Philadelphia	+0.0-0.2-0.0
Jacksonville vs Pittsburgh	-0.0-0.2+0.0
Chicago vs Minnesota	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Washington vs Houston	-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Baltimore vs Cincinnati	+0.0*+0.3-0.0
Seattle vs Green Bay	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

9		8	-	0	-	0					0	5	3	16	0	5	6	20	26	15	3	1	0
8	.5	7	-	0	-	1								33				11	22	17	6	11
8		7	-	1	-	0						0	0	3		0	0	2	2	9	19	24	21	13	5	2	0	0
7	.5	6	-	1	-	1								2								3	17	28	24	21	5
7		6	-	2	-	0								0						0	0	0	1	4	9	16	21	21	15	8	3	1	0	0	0
6	.5	5	-	2	-	1																			0	1	5	13	24	27	16	11	2	1
6		5	-	3	-	0																			0	0	0	1	4	10	17	23	22	14	7	2	0	0
5	.5	4	-	3	-	1																									3	8	24	27	23	10	4
5		4	-	4	-	0																							0	0	0	1	5	14	25	29	19	5
4	.5	3	-	4	-	1																											0	2	14	30	39	14
4		3	-	5	-	0																											0	0	3	14	39	44
3	.5	2	-	5	-	1																														3	36	60
3		2	-	6	-	0																													0	1	14	85
2	.5	1	-	6	-	1																															11	89
2		1	-	7	-	0																															2	98
1	.5	0	-	7	-	1																																100
1		0	-	8	-	0																															0	100

Total:											0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	5	6	7	9	12	15	24