SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

What might
today bring

Detroit Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Lions vs NY Jets	+7.3*-0.1-7.3		+2.3*-0.6-2.3		-1.6*-0.3+1.6		+0.8*+0.0-0.8
Vikings vs 49ers	-0.8*+0.1+0.8				-0.1*-0.0+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.4*-0.8-0.4		+0.2*+0.1-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.3*-0.1-0.3		+0.1*+0.3-0.1		+0.1*+0.2-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.3*+0.0+0.3		-0.2*-0.2+0.2
Cardinals vs Redskins	+0.2*-0.1-0.2		+0.1*-0.1-0.1		-0.1*+0.2+0.1		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Patriots vs Texans					-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills					+0.1*+0.3-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans					-0.1*+0.2+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
49ers vs Lions	-8.9*-0.9+8.9		-3.0*-0.3+3.0		+1.6*-0.2-1.6		-1.1-0.0+1.1
Bears vs Seahawks	-0.9*+0.5+0.9				-0.1*+0.1+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.4*-0.1+0.4		-0.2*-0.1+0.2
Saints vs Browns	-0.3*+0.3+0.3		-0.2*-0.5+0.2
Bills vs LA Chargers					-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots					+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Falcons vs Panthers					+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants					-0.1*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lions finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		99.3	%	99	1															No		135
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		3
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.7		100	0															No		344	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		65
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.4		99	1															No		2,518	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.6		99	1															No		512	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		94.1		94	5	0		1												No		11,399
		12	-	2	-	2	In		93.3		93	4	2														No		45
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		88.9		89	9	0		1												No		2,141	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		74.4		74	20	2	0	3	0											No		37,427
		11	-	3	-	2	In		76.7		77	15	3	1	5												No		172
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		60.6		61	29	4	0	6	0											No		6,367
		10	-	3	-	3	In		11.1		11	67	11		11												No		9
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	36.6		37	37	11	1	13	1	0										No		90,319
		10	-	4	-	2	In		39.3		39	36	11	0	13	0											No		514
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		18.0		18	37	21	3	19	3	0										No		14,340
		9	-	4	-	3	In		19.2		19	35	19	4	19	4											No		26
10		10	-	6	-	0	97.9		6.1		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0	0							No		165,804
		9	-	5	-	2	98.2		5.7		6	23	26	9	25	9	2										No		950	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.4		0.8		1	9	24	15	23	20	7	1	0								No		23,433
		8	-	5	-	3	In		No			11	38	3	27	22											No		37
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.4		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		237,019
		8	-	6	-	2	69.1		No			2	14	17	13	23	20	8	2	0							No		1,448
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	36.8		No			0	3	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	0	0					No		30,203
		7	-	6	-	3	31.5		No				4	15	2	11	30	28	11								No		54
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.7		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0		No		265,978
		7	-	7	-	2	15.2		No			0	1	8	1	5	12	22	24	17	7	2	0	0			No		1,715	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	29	23	11	3	0	0		No		30,435
		6	-	7	-	3	2.0		No					2				10	31	22	27	6	2				No		49
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.4		No				0	1		0	0	2	7	16	25	25	16	7	1	0	No		236,736
		6	-	8	-	2	1.1		No					1			0	2	6	16	26	24	16	7	1	0	No		1,509	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	1	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	No		23,183
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No												10	19	38	23	8	2	No		48
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	12	25	31	22	6	0.2	%	165,420
		5	-	9	-	2	0.2		No					0						0	2	13	25	31	23	5	0.5		1,004	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	11	29	39	18	1.9		13,870
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No											5			5	32	32	27	No		22
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	1	4	18	41	37	11.3		90,325
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													1	3	18	45	32	11.4		510	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	1	7	33	60	30.6		6,445	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	23	75	51.3		37,716
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															1	24	75	52.9		170
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	10	89	76.1		2,114	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	85.8		11,463
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																	100	84.4		32
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	96.2		470	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.0		2,464	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																2	98	96.8		62
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																0	100	99.7		327
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		137	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lions vs NY Jets	-2.0-0.1+2.0
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.0+0.2-0.0
Cardinals vs Redskins	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills	+0.0*+0.2-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
49ers vs Lions	+2.1+0.1-2.1
Bears vs Seahawks	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Falcons vs Panthers	+0.1*-0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	99		1
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	100
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	2	1
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	3	1
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	5	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	89	4	4		2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	76	13	9		0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	52	23	20	1	2	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	53	24	14	1	3		1		5
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	30	30	27	2	4		0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3		11	67		11				11
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	25	27	10	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	28	26	10	11	0	0		12	1	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	16	19	18	18	2	3	0	16	2	3	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	4	15	15	19	15	4	4		15	4	4
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	10	1	2	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	6	7	17	17	9	9	0	16	10	8	1	2
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	9	8	16	13	2	8	14	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3				11	11	27	3		16	11	22
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	13	14	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2				2	2	12	9	7	2	12	12	12	15	9	5	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	3	5	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						4	4	11		2		11	20	9	28	11
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2				0		1	2	7		1	0	5	2	6	12	15	15	15	11	6	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0		0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								2							2	4	6	6	37	14	14	12	2
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1				0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	14	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2								1							0		0	2	5	10	13	16	19	14	11	6	1	0	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0											0	0	1	3	10	18	25	22	14	5	1	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																							10	15	21	35	13	4	2
6		6	-	10	-	0								0												0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0														0	2	5	10	15	22	22	14	6	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																							0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	10	2
		4	-	9	-	3																										9		23	27	23	18
5		5	-	11	-	0								0																0	0	1	3	9	20	30	27	11
		4	-	10	-	2																										0	3	8	21	31	25	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																										0	0	1	6	21	40	31
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	11	36	51
		3	-	11	-	2																												1		8	39	53
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	3	21	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	13	86
		2	-	12	-	2																															16	84
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																															4	96
2		2	-	14	-	0																															3	97
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															3	97
1		1	-	15	-	0																															0	100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3