SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Detroit Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Lions vs NY Jets	+6.4-1.8-8.3		+1.9-0.8-2.5		-1.5-0.3+2.0		+0.7-0.1-1.0
Vikings vs 49ers	-0.7*+0.3+0.9				-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.3*-0.3+0.4		-0.1*+0.2+0.2				-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.3*-0.4-0.4		+0.1*-0.0-0.2		+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.3*-0.5-0.3		+0.1*-0.1-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Cardinals vs Redskins			+0.1*+0.0-0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys			+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Patriots vs Texans					-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans					-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills					+0.1*+0.0-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
49ers vs Lions	-7.8+1.2+10.3		-2.7*+0.0+3.6		+1.4-0.5-1.8		-1.0+0.2+1.2
Bears vs Seahawks	-0.7*+0.0+1.0				-0.0*+0.1+0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.3*+0.3+0.4		-0.1*-0.0+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns	-0.3*+0.2+0.3		-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants			+0.1*-0.1-0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots					+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Panthers					+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers					-0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Lions finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		435	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.9	%	100	0															No		891
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		193
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.2		99	1	0		0												No		7,081	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.3		98	1	0		0												No		1,382	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		94.0		94	5	0		1												No		33,325
		12	-	2	-	2	In		92.2		92	6			2												No		128
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.1		89	9	0		1												No		6,414	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	100.0	%	75.8		76	19	1	0	3	0	0										No		111,787
		11	-	3	-	2	In		77.4		77	20	1	0	2												No		526
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		61.2		61	29	4	0	6	0											No		18,915
		10	-	3	-	3	In		64.3		64	29			7												No		28
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0		37.8		38	37	11	1	12	1	0										No		272,749
		10	-	4	-	2	In		38.1		38	38	11	1	11	1											No		1,508
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		19.2		19	37	19	3	19	2	0										No		42,887
		9	-	4	-	3	In		23.0		23	38	13	7	15	5											No		61
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.1		6.4		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		505,032
		9	-	5	-	2	98.3		6.3		6	24	28	9	23	8	2	0									No		3,080	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.7		0.9		1	9	24	15	24	20	6	1	0	0							No		71,767
		8	-	5	-	3	96.3		0.7		1	8	28	14	26	19	3		1								No		136
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.9		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		728,676
		8	-	6	-	2	70.1		0.1		0	2	13	18	13	24	19	8	2	0	0						No		4,525	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.3		0.0		0	0	3	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	0	0					No		93,204
		7	-	6	-	3	35.3		No			1	4	13	4	13	29	23	8	4	1						No		173	*
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.6		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	17	8	2	0	0	0		No		820,452
		7	-	7	-	2	14.4		No			0	1	9	0	4	13	23	23	17	8	2	0				No		5,269	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0	0	No		92,590
		6	-	7	-	3	5.3		No					5			2	6	22	28	19	15	2				No		170
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	1	0	No		728,028
		6	-	8	-	2	1.2		No					1			0	2	6	15	25	25	16	7	2	0	No		4,591	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.2		No					0				0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	No		71,598
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											3	10	24	27	24	11	1	No		125
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	11	25	31	22	6	0.3	%	504,728
		5	-	9	-	2	0.0		No					0						0	4	11	24	32	22	7	0.1		3,043	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0.0		No					0						0	0	2	10	29	39	19	2.1		42,809
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													1	9	34	37	18	1.5		67
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	0	4	17	41	38	12.0		271,803
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													0	3	18	40	39	13.0		1,552	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No														0	6	33	61	31.9		19,114
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No																19	81	41.9		31
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	22	76	53.1		111,588
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															2	21	77	48.8		521
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	10	89	76.5		6,188	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	86.3		33,695
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																4	96	90.4		135	*
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No															0	1	99	95.8		1,367	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.6		7,111	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																	100	99.5		193
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																0	100	99.8		868	*
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	99.8		437	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Lions vs NY Jets	-1.8+0.3+2.3
Vikings vs 49ers	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.0-0.1+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills	+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.0+0.1-0.0
Panthers vs Cowboys	-0.0-0.1+0.0
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
49ers vs Lions	+1.9-0.4-2.4
Bears vs Seahawks	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Falcons vs Panthers	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots	+0.0+0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	-0.0*+0.0+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	98	2
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	1	1		0				0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	2	1		0				0
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	5	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	84	9	6						2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	77	12	9	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	53	23	19	1	1	0	0		3	0	0		0
		11	-	3	-	2	53	25	19	1	1		0		2
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	33	29	27	2	4	0	0		6	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	26	28	9	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	25	28	10	11	0	1		10	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	20	18	17	2	3	0	16	2	2	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	3	20	23	15	11	2	7		15		5
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	16	9	9	1	2	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	6	6	18	19	9	8	1	15	8	8	0	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	0	1	0	9	9	15	13	2	9	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		1	1	7	11	17	12	2	13	14	18	1	3		1
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	15	10	5	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0	0	2	2	11	10	8	2	11	11	13	14	9	5	2	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1		0		0	0	3	5	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	3	1	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3				1		4	4	9		4	1	12	12	20	17	12	2	2
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2				0		1	1	8		0	0	4	2	6	12	15	16	14	10	7	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								5								3	4	13	19	23	22	8	2	1
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	10	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2							0	1								0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	11	5	2	1	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0										0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																					1	2	10	17	22	26	18	5		1
6		6	-	10	-	0								0											0	0	0	0	2	5	10	17	21	20	15	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0													0	0	2	5	10	16	22	21	14	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1								0															0	0	1	3	9	20	29	25	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																									1	3	12	16	22	33	10	1
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	0	2	8	19	30	28	12
		4	-	10	-	2																										1	2	8	19	29	28	13
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																										0	0	1	5	20	42	32
		3	-	10	-	3																												3		3	52	42
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	10	35	53
		3	-	11	-	2																												0	3	11	37	49
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	21	77
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	13	86
		2	-	12	-	2																														1	9	90
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																														0	4	96
2		2	-	14	-	0																														0	2	98
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															1	99
1		1	-	15	-	0																															0	100
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																																100
0		0	-	16	-	0																															0	100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3