SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Jacksonville Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-7.3*+0.7+7.3		-2.3*+0.0+2.3		+1.6*-0.2-1.6		-0.8*+0.1+0.8
Dolphins vs Titans	+0.8*+0.2-0.8				+0.1*+0.2-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans	+0.8*-0.0-0.8				+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals	-0.6*+0.1+0.6		+0.1*+0.2-0.1		-0.2*-0.1+0.2
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.4*+0.2+0.4		-0.2*+0.1+0.2				-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.3*-0.6+0.4		-0.2*-0.2+0.2
Lions vs NY Jets	+0.3*-0.1-0.3		+0.2*-0.3-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs			-0.1*-0.0+0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons					-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Browns vs Steelers					+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Ravens vs Bills					+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins					+0.1*+0.2-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Jaguars vs Patriots	+8.8*-0.5-8.8		+3.0*-0.1-3.0		-1.6*-0.3+1.6		+1.1*-0.0-1.1
Redskins vs Colts	+1.1*-0.1-1.1		+0.1*-0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns	+0.4*+0.5-0.4		+0.2*+0.2-0.2				+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers			+0.1*-0.0-0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1		+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Buccaneers vs Eagles					+0.1*+0.0-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Jaguars finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		141	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.4	%	99	1															No		326	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		65
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.0		99	1															No		2,507	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.2		98	2															No		509
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		93.3		93	6	0		1												No		11,421
		12	-	2	-	2	In		97.8		98				2												No		45
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.5		89	10	0		1												No		2,175	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		74.6		75	20	2	0	4	0											No		37,727
		11	-	3	-	2	In		66.5		66	26	2		5												No		179
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		59.7		60	31	4	0	6	0											No		6,352
		10	-	3	-	3	In		83.3		83	17															No		12
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	37.0		37	37	12	1	13	1	0										No		90,292
		10	-	4	-	2	In		42.9		43	35	10	1	11	0											No		478
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		18.4		18	37	20	3	19	3	0										No		14,104
		9	-	4	-	3	In		14.3		14	25	25	7	25	4											No		28
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.0		6.1		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		165,986
		9	-	5	-	2	97.9		6.3		6	25	26	10	21	9	2	0	0								No		997	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.3		0.9		1	9	24	15	23	20	7	1	0								No		23,459
		8	-	5	-	3	In		No			9	27	24	27	12											No		33
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.4		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		236,802
		8	-	6	-	2	67.9		No			1	12	16	14	24	20	10	2	0							No		1,518
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	36.9		No			0	4	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	1	0					No		30,235
		7	-	6	-	3	33.3		No				2	11	7	13	33	24	9								No		54	*
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.7		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	17	8	2	0	0	0	0	No		266,145
		7	-	7	-	2	13.8		No				0	9	1	4	13	23	25	15	8	2	0	0			No		1,736	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	9	21	28	23	11	3	0	0		No		30,369
		6	-	7	-	3	6.8		No					7			2	16	9	30	25	7	5				No		44
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0	No		236,019
		6	-	8	-	2	1.6		No					2		0	0	2	7	15	25	24	17	7	1	0	No		1,496	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.2		No					0				0	0	3	12	26	31	21	7	1	No		23,598
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											3	11	17	43	14	11		No		35
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0			0	0	0	1	3	12	25	32	21	6	0.2	%	165,483
		5	-	9	-	2	Out		No											1	3	12	24	31	22	7	0.3		957
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	11	30	39	18	1.9		14,125
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													6	12	35	41	6	No		17
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	1	4	18	40	37	11.2		90,139
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No												0	1	4	17	42	37	10.8		501	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	1	7	33	60	31.0		6,386	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	3	22	75	52.0		37,502
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															3	19	79	54.9		193
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	10	90	76.5		2,191	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	85.7		11,611
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																7	93	93.1		29
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	94.4		500	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.5		2,445	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																	100	Yes		65
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																0	100	Yes		313
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1	Out		No																17	83	83.3		6
0		0	-	16	-	0	Out		No																	100	Yes		138

Total:							37.5	%	6.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Giants vs Jaguars	+2.0-0.2-2.0
Dolphins vs Titans	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Browns vs Steelers	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bills	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Eagles vs Falcons	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Panthers vs Cowboys	+0.0*+0.2-0.0
Cardinals vs Redskins	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Jaguars vs Patriots	-2.1-0.0+2.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Saints vs Browns	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	1	1
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	97	2	1
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	95	3	2
13		13	-	3	-	0	85	8	6	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	93	4							2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	77	13	9	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	51	23	19	1	2		0		4	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	51	15	26		2				5
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	31	29	29	2	4	0	0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	25	58	8	8
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	26	27	10	11	1	1	0	12	1	1	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	13	30	27	8	9	0	1		10	1	0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	19	18	18	2	3	0	17	3	3		0
		9	-	4	-	3	4	11	14	11	25		7		14	11	4
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	9	1	2	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	6	7	19	17	9	9	1	13	8	8	1	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	9	9	15	13	3	8	15	17	3	7	1	0
		8	-	5	-	3				9	6	21	21	3	3	24	12
9		9	-	7	-	0	0	0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	15	10	5	2	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2				1	2	10	9	7	1	13	11	13	15	11	5	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	4	5	10	0	3	1	14	10	20	18	10	3	1	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						2	4	7		7	2	11	9	24	19	13	2
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						0	1	7		1	0	4	1	6	11	15	17	13	11	7	4	1	0		0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	17	9	3	1	0		0
		6	-	7	-	3								7							2	7	7	9	16	25	16	7	5
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	14	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2								2				0				0	0	2	5	10	14	17	18	15	10	5	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0											0	0	1	3	10	19	24	22	14	5	1	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																						3	14	17	20	9	31	6
6		6	-	10	-	0								0											0	0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2																						0	1	6	11	18	18	20	15	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																							0	0	1	3	10	22	29	23	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																									6		12	6	29	41	6
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	1	3	9	20	30	27	11
		4	-	10	-	2																									0	1	2	8	17	33	28	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																										0	0	1	6	22	39	31
		3	-	10	-	3																													9	9	55	27
4		4	-	12	-	0																										0	0	0	2	11	35	52
		3	-	11	-	2																													2	13	30	55
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	21	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																												0	0	1	13	86
		2	-	12	-	2																															7	93
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																															6	94
2		2	-	14	-	0																															2	98
1	-1.5																																					100
0	.5	0	-	15	-	1																															17	83
0		0	-	16	-	0																																100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3