SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Atlanta Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Eagles vs Falcons	-8.8*-0.7+8.8		-3.0*-0.3+3.0		+1.6*-0.4-1.6		-1.1*-0.0+1.1
Panthers vs Cowboys	-0.9*-1.2+0.9				-0.1*+0.2+0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.4*-0.4-0.4		+0.2*-0.1-0.2				+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets	-0.3*-0.3+0.3		-0.1*+0.3+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.3*+0.5-0.3		+0.1*+0.2-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.3*+1.2+0.3		-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1		-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Ravens vs Bills					-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Packers vs Bears					-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Colts vs Bengals					+0.1*-0.2-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Falcons vs Panthers	+10.5*-0.7-10.5		+2.9-0.8-2.9		-1.6*-0.2+1.6		+1.2-0.0-1.2
Saints vs Browns	-1.2*+0.2+1.2		-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles	-0.8*+1.0+0.8				-0.1*-0.2+0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.4*-0.2+0.4		-0.2*+0.1+0.2		-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
LA Rams vs Cardinals					+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Packers vs Vikings					-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs					-0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Falcons finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

14.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		560	*
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.0	%	99	1			0												No		2,448
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		8
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.0		98	2															No		511	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		93.7		94	6	0		1												No		11,496
		12	-	2	-	2	In		97.7		98	2															No		44
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.4		89	10	0		1												No		2,100
		11	-	2	-	3	In		60.0		60	40															No		5
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		74.9		75	20	2	0	3	0											No		37,715
		11	-	3	-	2	In		78.3		78	17	1		4												No		175
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		59.4		59	30	4	0	6	0											No		6,414
		10	-	3	-	3	In		60.0		60	30			10												No		10
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	36.5		37	37	12	1	13	1	0										No		89,879
		10	-	4	-	2	99.8		35.1		35	38	13	0	13		0										No		484
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		18.5		18	36	20	3	20	3	0										No		13,975
		9	-	4	-	3	In		16.7		17	46	17	4	17												No		24
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.0		6.1		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		165,869
		9	-	5	-	2	98.0		7.1		7	22	24	10	24	11	2	0									No		906	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.5		0.9		1	9	24	15	24	20	6	1	0	0							No		23,706
		8	-	5	-	3	89.2		2.7		3	5	16	16	32	16	11										No		37
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.5		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		236,915
		8	-	6	-	2	68.3		No			2	12	18	12	24	20	8	3	1							No		1,447	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	36.3		No			0	4	15	3	14	26	23	11	3	1	0					No		30,369
		7	-	6	-	3	26.9		No				2	12	2	12	29	25	13	4	2						No		52
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.6		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0		No		266,021
		7	-	7	-	2	13.7		No				1	8	1	4	12	22	24	17	8	3	1	0			No		1,701	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	4	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0		No		30,303
		6	-	7	-	3	5.1		No					5			3	3	17	27	24	17	3				No		59
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.4		No				0	1		0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0	No		236,554
		6	-	8	-	2	1.6		No				0	1		0	0	1	7	16	23	26	18	5	2	0	No		1,480	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	0	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	No		23,187
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											4	12	31	25	20	8		No		51
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	4	12	25	31	21	6	0.2	%	165,307
		5	-	9	-	2	0.2		No					0						1	4	10	24	32	22	7	0.3		988
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out		No												0	2	11	30	39	19	1.6		13,910
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No														13	35	35	17	4.3		23
5		5	-	11	-	0	Out		No											0	0	0	4	18	41	37	11.1		90,563
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													1	2	17	39	41	10.0		499
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No														0	6	34	60	31.2		6,509
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No															8	25	67	25.0		12
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No														0	2	22	75	52.1		37,812
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															2	23	75	48.8		164
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No														0	0	10	89	76.2		2,025	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	85.4		11,679
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																5	95	90.2		41
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	94.5		470	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	96.7		2,420
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		11
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																1	99	98.7		78
0	-1						Out		No																	100	Yes		472	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Eagles vs Falcons	+2.1+0.1-2.1
Panthers vs Cowboys	+0.1+0.2-0.1
Ravens vs Bills	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Packers vs Bears	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Colts vs Bengals	+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Falcons vs Panthers	-2.3+0.1+2.3
Saints vs Browns	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Packers vs Vikings	-0.1+0.1+0.1
LA Rams vs Cardinals	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles	+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs	-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Redskins vs Colts	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	100	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	99	1
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	1	1						0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94	4	2
13		13	-	3	-	0	85	8	6	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	95	2		2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	76	13	10		0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	52	23	19	1	2	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	56	22	17	1	1				4
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	30	29	28	2	4	0	0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	30	30	30						10
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	25	27	10	11	1	1	0	12	1	1	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	24	29	9	12	1	0		12	1			0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	18	18	18	2	3		17	2	3	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	4	13	33	13	13	4	4		17
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	9	1	2	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2		7	5	17	15	9	9	1	15	9	10	1	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	9	8	15	13	3	9	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		3		5	5	11	16		11	22	16		11
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	15	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2				2	2	10	10	8	1	10	10	14	15	9	5	2	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	3	4	11	0	3	1	13	11	20	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						2	4	8		2		12	10	27	29	2	6
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						1	1	7		1	0	4	2	6	12	16	17	14	11	6	2	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								5								2	5	12	27	24	12	10	3
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1				0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	14	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2						0		1				0				0	0	2	5	10	14	18	19	13	11	5	2	1	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0											0	0	1	4	10	19	24	22	13	6	1	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																							14	22	20	24	14	6	2
6		6	-	10	-	0								0												0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0													0	1	1	5	10	17	21	21	14	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																							0	0	0	3	10	21	30	24	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																										4	13	17	26	22	13	4
5		5	-	11	-	0																							0	0	0	1	3	9	20	30	27	11
		4	-	10	-	2																										0	1	10	19	28	31	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																											0	1	6	22	40	31
		3	-	10	-	3																													8	8	58	25
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	11	35	52
		3	-	11	-	2																													2	12	38	49
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	21	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	14	85
		2	-	12	-	2																															10	90
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																															6	94
2		2	-	14	-	0																															3	97
		1	-	13	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															1	99
0	-1																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3