SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Miami Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Dolphins vs Titans	+8.9*-0.5-8.8		+2.9*-0.3-2.9		-1.6*-0.4+1.6		+1.1*+0.0-1.1
Lions vs NY Jets	+1.1*-0.9-1.1		+0.1*-0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.7*+0.7+0.7				-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Ravens vs Bills	+0.6*+0.2-0.6		-0.1*+0.1+0.1		+0.2*-0.1-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.3*-0.1+0.3		-0.2*-0.2+0.2		-0.1*-0.2+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	+0.3*-0.1-0.3		+0.1*+0.3-0.1		+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.2*-0.2+0.2		-0.1*-0.1+0.2
Vikings vs 49ers					-0.1*+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins	-10.5*-0.2+10.5		-2.9*-0.2+2.9		+1.6*-0.3-1.6		-1.2*+0.0+1.2
Jaguars vs Patriots	+0.7*-0.3-0.7				+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	-0.6*-0.1+0.6		+0.1*-0.1-0.1		-0.2*+0.3+0.2		-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Saints vs Browns	+0.3*+0.2-0.3		+0.2*-0.1-0.2
Redskins vs Colts	+0.2*+0.1-0.2		+0.2*+0.0-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks					-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bengals vs Ravens					-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders					+0.1*+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dolphins finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		136	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.7	%	100	0															No		309
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		84
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.1		99	1															No		2,497	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		97.2		97	3			0												No		495
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		93.7		94	6	0		1												No		11,403
		12	-	2	-	2	In		98.0		98	2															No		51
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.8		90	9	0		1												No		2,139	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		74.6		75	20	2	0	3	0											No		37,693
		11	-	3	-	2	In		77.2		77	18	1	1	3												No		180
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		60.2		60	30	4	0	6	0											No		6,414
		10	-	3	-	3	In		62.5		63	25	13														No		8
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	36.7		37	37	12	1	13	1	0	0									No		90,289
		10	-	4	-	2	In		41.7		42	35	11	0	11	1											No		535
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.8		18.2		18	37	20	3	19	3	0	0									No		13,897
		9	-	4	-	3	In		17.4		17	52	9	4	17												No		23
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.0		6.1		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0	0							No		165,804
		9	-	5	-	2	98.2		6.7		7	24	25	8	25	9	2	0									No		967
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.1		0.9		1	9	24	15	23	20	7	1	0								No		23,587
		8	-	5	-	3	97.0		No			6	33	6	24	27	3										No		33
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.4		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0	0				No		236,782
		8	-	6	-	2	70.6		0.2		0	3	12	18	14	24	20	8	2	0	0						No		1,498	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.0		No			0	3	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	0	0					No		30,360
		7	-	6	-	3	48.3		No				3	16	5	24	21	22	3	5							No		58
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.6		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	17	8	2	0	0	0		No		266,352
		7	-	7	-	2	14.6		No				1	9	1	4	14	21	24	15	8	3	0				No		1,738	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.6		No				0	3		0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	1	0	0	No		29,964
		6	-	7	-	3	1.7		No					2			3	8	22	33	22	7	3				No		60
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	25	24	16	7	1	0	No		235,968
		6	-	8	-	2	1.3		No					1			0	2	6	16	24	26	17	7	1	0	No		1,565	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.2		No					0				0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	No		23,471
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											3	5	28	38	18	8		No		39
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	12	25	31	22	6	0.3	%	165,663
		5	-	9	-	2	0.1		No					0					0	0	3	11	27	32	21	6	0.2		1,023	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0.0		No					0						0	0	2	11	30	39	18	2.0		13,844
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													3	9	34	40	14	No		35
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	0	4	18	41	37	11.2		90,373
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													1	3	18	44	35	10.0		542
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No														1	6	33	60	30.4		6,415
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No																27	73	36.4		11
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	3	23	75	51.9		37,830
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															2	26	72	51.4		179
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	9	90	77.5		2,145	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	85.4		11,428
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																7	93	81.8		44
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	95.7		490	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.6		2,547
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	Yes		13
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																2	98	98.3		60
0	-1						Out		No																	100	99.8		447	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Dolphins vs Titans	-2.1-0.0+2.1
Lions vs NY Jets	-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Patriots vs Texans	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	-0.0*-0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins	+2.3-0.0-2.3
Bengals vs Ravens	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bears vs Seahawks	-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	97	2	1
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	94	3	3						0
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	6	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	92	6	2
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	76	14	8	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	52	23	20	1	2	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	56	21	17	1	1		1		3
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	30	30	27	3	4	0	0		6	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	25	27	10	11	1	1	0	12	1	1	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	30	27	8	10	1	0		10	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	16	19	18	18	2	3	0	17	3	3	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3		17	26	26	9		4		17
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	16	9	8	1	15	9	10	1	2	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	7	6	17	17	8	8	1	17	9	9	1	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	9	8	16	12	3	8	15	17	4	7	1	0
		8	-	5	-	3				6	6	27	3	3	12	12	21	6	3
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	15	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0		3	2	10	10	8	2	11	10	14	12	11	5	1	0		0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	3	4	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						3	5	10		5	2	22	5	19	19	7	2
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7		1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						1	2	7		1	0	4	2	7	10	16	17	14	10	7	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3				0		0	0	1	6	13	22	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								2								2	10	8	30	22	22	2	3
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	14	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2								1								0	0	2	5	10	15	19	18	13	9	5	2	1
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0										0	0	0	1	3	9	18	25	22	14	6	2	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																					3		8	15	18	28	26		3
6		6	-	10	-	0								0											0	0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0													0	0	1	4	12	18	20	22	14	6	1	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1								0														0	0	0	1	3	10	21	29	24	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																									3	3	11	29	26	17	11
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	1	3	9	20	30	27	11
		4	-	10	-	2																										1	4	10	18	30	27	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																											0	1	6	22	41	30
		3	-	10	-	3																														18	45	36
4		4	-	12	-	0																										0	0	0	2	11	35	52
		3	-	11	-	2																													2	14	33	51
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	20	78
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	14	85
		2	-	12	-	2																															18	82
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																															4	96
2		2	-	14	-	0																															2	98
		1	-	13	-	2																																100
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															2	98
1		1	-	15	-	0																															0	100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3