SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Miami Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0
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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Dolphins vs Titans+7.7-1.7-10.1
+2.5-0.8-3.3
-1.5*-0.0+2.0
+1.0-0.1-1.3
Lions vs NY Jets+1.0*-0.2-1.3
+0.1*-0.1-0.2
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.7*+0.3+0.9
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.5*+0.2-0.7
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.2
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.1+0.4
-0.1*+0.3+0.2
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*+0.4+0.4
-0.1*+0.3+0.2
-0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.2*+0.3-0.3
+0.1*-0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.1*-0.0+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins-9.2+1.2+12.1
-2.7*-0.1+3.5
+1.3-0.3-1.7
-1.0+0.2+1.4
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.7*+0.0-1.0
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers-0.5*-0.2+0.6
+0.1*-0.2-0.2
-0.1*+0.2+0.2
Saints vs Browns+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.2*-0.0-0.2
+0.0-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*+0.2-0.4
+0.1*+0.2-0.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.1*-0.1+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*+0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dolphins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No428*
1515-1-0In99.8%1000No904*
14.514-1-1InYes100No177
1414-2-0In99.19910No7,109*
13.513-2-1In98.49810No1,495
1313-3-0In94.1945001No33,366
12-2-2In90.59191No116
12.512-3-1In89.289901No6,184*
1212-4-0In75.776201030No111,191
11-3-2In76.2762013No554
11.511-4-1In61.361293060No19,104
10-3-3In51.6524233No31
1111-5-0100.0%37.9383711112100No272,146
10-4-2In38.93937111121No1,456
10.510-5-199.918.919372031920No42,331
9-4-3In24.62533183183No61
1010-6-098.16.462326924102000No506,090
9-5-298.46.1624259241010No2,969
9.59-6-192.60.919241523206100No72,033
8-5-389.4No92413222174No141
99-7-068.90.1021218132319930000No727,669
8-6-269.70.10212191324199200No4,514*
8.58-7-137.0No0315315262311300No93,276
7-6-341.1No1518412271894No168
88-8-014.70.00019141322231682000No820,756
7-7-213.7No0181414232416720No5,323*
7.57-8-13.7No030028202823113000No92,794
6-7-34.1No4111212623123No170
77-9-01.3No010002716242516710No728,195
6-8-21.3No1002716252617610No4,450*
6.56-9-10.2No00031125312171No71,156
5-8-3OutNo13112827245No131
66-10-00.1No000131224322260.3%505,342
5-9-20.0No0031025312470.42,969*
5.55-10-10.0No0002103039192.142,601
4-9-3OutNo4102337274.271
55-11-00.0No0000417413811.9272,690
4-10-2OutNo0415423913.11,492
4.54-11-1OutNo006326232.819,267
3-10-3OutNo8316230.826
44-12-0OutNo002227653.3111,826
3-11-2OutNo3207753.9495
3.53-12-1OutNo0108977.66,186*
33-13-0OutNo069486.733,337
2-12-2OutNo69485.6139
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.31,417*
22-14-0OutNo019997.47,109*
1.51-14-1OutNo19999.4179
11-15-0OutNo010099.8910
0-0.5OutNo100Yes432*
Total:37.5%6.2%66666666666666663.1%4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Dolphins vs Titans-1.9+0.2+2.5
Lions vs NY Jets-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.0*-0.1+0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs-0.0+0.1+0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
NY Jets vs Dolphins+2.0-0.3-2.6
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Raiders+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens-0.1-0.0+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.0+0.0-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.0+0.1+0.0
Redskins vs Colts+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
1616-0-01000
15.515-0-1100
1515-1-09910
14.514-1-1100
1414-2-097210
13.513-2-196210
1313-3-087850001
12-2-284691
12.512-3-177139001
1212-4-0532219110300
11-3-2552119013
11.511-4-13229272300600
10-3-3262639333
1111-5-0122628910010121100
10-4-21227281010011111
10.510-5-1217201818230163200
9-4-3321161616231623
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-206718178811699110
9.59-6-101099151329151736100
8-5-3961811261619283
99-7-000221010821111121410510000
8-6-2002210118211111315104100
8.58-7-1003411032131120181041000
7-6-31551341111018217311
88-8-000011701042611151614116310000
7-7-20011701042612151515117310
7.57-8-100300000261321231893100
6-7-31471115252311211
77-9-000100000125101417171510621000
6-8-21000025914181715106210
6.56-9-100000139182423146200
5-8-31691528161672
66-10-000000251017212015720
5-9-2000151117202214720
5.55-10-1000139202925112
4-9-31110212725104
55-11-000002819302812
4-10-2002918302813
4.54-11-10015204133
44-12-00002103553
3-11-2393454
3.53-12-10022078
33-13-00011387
2-12-211386
2.52-13-10595
22-14-00397
1.51-14-1199
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333
Updated Saturday, 2023-10-21 11:15 PM Eastern (GMT-04:00)