SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Kansas City Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.6%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
LA Chargers vs Chiefs	-10.5*-1.2+10.5		-2.9*-0.6+2.9		+1.6*-0.3-1.6		-1.2-0.0+1.2
Raiders vs LA Rams	-1.1*+0.3+1.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	-1.1*-0.1+1.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.1*-0.2+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets	+0.3*+0.1-0.3		+0.2*+0.3-0.2
NY Giants vs Jaguars	+0.3*+0.3-0.3		+0.1*+0.2-0.1		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Ravens vs Bills	+0.2*-0.5-0.2		+0.1*+0.0-0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins					-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans					-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers					+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Colts vs Bengals					+0.1*+0.2-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Steelers vs Chiefs	-8.8*+0.0+8.7		-3.0*-0.2+3.0		+1.6*+0.1-1.6		-1.1*+0.0+1.1
Redskins vs Colts	+0.4+1.5-0.4		+0.2*+0.2-0.2				+0.0+0.1-0.0
Bills vs LA Chargers	+0.5*-0.2-0.5		-0.1*+0.5+0.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Saints vs Browns	+0.3*+0.5-0.3		+0.2*+0.1-0.2		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
49ers vs Lions					-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chiefs finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15	-16						In		Yes		100																No		459	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		98.4	%	98	2															No		62
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		98.7		99	1			0												No		2,516	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.9		99	1			0												No		446
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		93.6		94	6	0		1												No		11,579
		12	-	2	-	2	In		88.6		89	11															No		44
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		88.9		89	10	0		1												No		2,136	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		74.6		75	20	2	0	4	0											No		37,703
		11	-	3	-	2	In		73.7		74	19			7												No		175
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		60.7		61	29	4	0	7	0											No		6,346
		10	-	3	-	3	In		70.0		70	20	10														No		10
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	36.7		37	37	11	1	13	1	0	0									No		90,346
		10	-	4	-	2	In		36.2		36	37	9	1	15	1											No		478
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		17.9		18	37	20	3	20	3	0	0									No		13,997
		9	-	4	-	3	In		8.3		8	38	17		38												No		24
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.0		6.1		6	22	26	9	24	10	2	0	0	0							No		165,561
		9	-	5	-	2	97.6		5.2		5	21	27	8	27	10	2	0									No		1,025	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.7		0.9		1	9	24	15	23	20	6	1	0								No		23,487
		8	-	5	-	3	88.6		2.3		2	11	20	11	18	25	9		2								No		44
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.6		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		237,235
		8	-	6	-	2	69.5		No			3	13	19	12	24	20	9	2	0		0					No		1,514	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	36.6		No			0	3	15	3	14	27	23	11	3	0	0					No		30,043
		7	-	6	-	3	39.6		No				4	17	4	15	23	28	6	2	2						No		53
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.6		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0	0	No		266,160
		7	-	7	-	2	13.5		No				0	9	1	4	13	22	24	17	9	2	0				No		1,686	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.6		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0	0	No		30,211
		6	-	7	-	3	5.6		No					4		2	4	15	17	30	22	6	2				No		54
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.4		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0	No		236,328
		6	-	8	-	2	1.0		No					1			0	2	6	16	25	25	17	5	1	0	No		1,517	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	0	3	12	25	31	21	7	1	No		23,146
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No												7	34	37	17	5		No		41
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	4	12	25	31	22	6	0.2	%	165,393
		5	-	9	-	2	0.3		No					0					0	1	4	11	26	33	20	6	0.1		938	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out		No												0	2	11	30	39	18	2.0		13,947
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													6	12	12	41	29	17.6		17
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0							0	1	4	18	41	37	11.3		90,537
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													0	2	19	37	41	10.1		445	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No														1	6	33	61	31.9		6,457	*
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No														0	2	23	75	51.6		37,868
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															3	18	80	57.0		186
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	10	89	75.4		2,160	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	93	85.4		11,593
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																9	91	82.4		34
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	94.6		467	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.1		2,507	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																	100	Yes		61
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																0	100	99.3		307	*
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		145	*

Total:							37.6	%	6.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
LA Chargers vs Chiefs	+2.3+0.1-2.3
Cardinals vs Redskins	-0.1-0.2+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Ravens vs Bills	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	+0.1*-0.1-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Steelers vs Chiefs	+2.1-0.1-2.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.0-0.2+0.0
49ers vs Lions	-0.1-0.1+0.1
Bears vs Seahawks	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15	-16						100
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	98		2
14		14	-	2	-	0	97	1	1						0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	3	1						0
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	6	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	86	2	11
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	77	12	10	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	51	23	19	1	2		0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	54	19	18	1					7
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	32	29	27	2	4		0		7	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	10	60	20		10
11		11	-	5	-	0	11	26	27	10	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	14	22	27	10	9	0	1		14	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	16	19	18	18	2	3	0	17	3	3	0	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3		8	25	13	17				29	8
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	10	1	2	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	5	6	15	17	10	8	0	16	10	9	1	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	9	9	15	13	3	8	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		2		11	11	9	9	2	11	7	18	7	9		2
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	13	14	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2				3	2	10	10	8	2	10	10	14	15	9	4	2	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	3	4	11	0	3	1	13	11	20	19	10	4	1	0	0		0
		7	-	6	-	3						4	6	11		4	2	13	15	19	19	6	2
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						0	2	7		1	0	4	2	5	12	16	17	13	10	6	3	1	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0		0	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								4				2				2	4	13	31	28	9	2	2	2	2
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	14	10	5	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2								1								0	1	2	6	10	14	15	18	15	10	4	3	1	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0											0	0	1	4	10	19	24	22	14	6	1	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																						5	10	15	37	12	15	7
6		6	-	10	-	0								0												0	0	0	2	5	11	17	21	20	14	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0														1	1	5	12	19	18	20	14	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																							0	0	1	3	10	21	29	23	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																											6	18	24	18	18	18
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	1	3	9	20	30	27	11
		4	-	10	-	2																										0	2	9	21	26	33	10
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																											0	1	6	22	39	32
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	11	35	52
		3	-	11	-	2																												1		10	32	57
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																												0	0	2	22	75
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	14	85
		2	-	12	-	2																															18	82
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																														0	5	95
2		2	-	14	-	0																														0	3	97
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																																100
1		1	-	15	-	0																															1	99
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3