SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Kansas City Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0
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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
LA Chargers vs Chiefs-9.2+1.3+12.1
-2.7*+0.2+3.5
+1.3-0.4-1.7
-1.0+0.2+1.4
Broncos vs Seahawks-1.0*-0.1+1.3
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-1.0*-0.5+1.3
-0.1*-0.1+0.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.4-0.4
+0.2*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets+0.3*+0.4-0.4
+0.1*-0.1-0.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bills+0.1*-0.3-0.2
+0.1*-0.3-0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.1*+0.0+0.1
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins-0.1*+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Steelers vs Chiefs-7.7+0.9+10.2
-2.7*-0.0+3.6
+1.4-0.6-1.8
-0.9+0.2+1.2
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.5-0.8-0.6
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.0-0.1-0.0
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*+0.3-0.4
+0.1*+0.2-0.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns+0.2*+0.3-0.3
+0.1*-0.0-0.2
+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks+0.1*-0.1-0.1
49ers vs Lions-0.1*+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Chiefs finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No421*
1515-1-0In99.8%1000No929*
14.514-1-1InYes100No185
1414-2-0In99.29910No7,045
13-1-2InYes100No27
13.513-2-1In98.39820No1,400*
1313-3-0In94.194501No33,452
12-2-2In92.5928No133
12.512-3-1In89.890901No6,272*
1212-4-0In75.575201030No111,180
11-3-2In76.3761913No545
11.511-4-1In60.561294060No19,237*
1111-5-0100.0%37.8383711113100No273,857
10-4-2In37.63839102111No1,507
10.510-5-199.919.019371931920No42,504
9-4-3In23.52440153154No68
1010-6-098.16.462326924102000No505,023
9-5-298.37.372426823920No3,097*
9.59-6-192.91.019241524206100No72,104
8-5-395.10.8114251624165No122
99-7-069.00.102121813231993000No726,862
8-6-270.80.20312191324198200No4,472*
8.58-7-137.1No031531526231130000No92,868
7-6-341.0No4173172124131No156
88-8-014.7No019141322231682000No819,975
7-7-214.4No1904132324177200No5,252*
7.57-8-13.7No03002820282311300No92,656
6-7-35.0No5392229201111No179
77-9-01.3No0100027162425177100.0%727,353
6-8-20.8No102715242517710No4,567*
6.56-9-10.2No0000311253121710.072,114
5-8-30.7No13121727337No146
66-10-00.1No000131225322260.3507,313
5-9-2OutNo031226302270.33,039*
5.55-10-1OutNo002103039192.142,306
4-9-3OutNo11112440211.470
55-11-00.0No0000417413812.0271,858
4-10-2OutNo0316404012.81,499*
4.54-11-1OutNo006336132.319,009
3-10-3OutNo4177843.523
44-12-0OutNo002227653.5111,913
3-11-2OutNo2227753.3531*
3.53-12-1OutNo0108976.56,244*
33-13-0OutNo069486.733,299
2-12-2OutNo89287.9141
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.21,451*
22-14-0OutNo19997.47,056*
1.51-14-1OutNo100Yes181
11-15-0OutNo010099.5911*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes424*
Total:37.5%6.3%66666666666666663.1%4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
LA Chargers vs Chiefs+2.0-0.3-2.7
Raiders vs LA Rams+0.1+0.1-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks+0.1+0.0-0.1
Ravens vs Bills-0.1+0.1+0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Colts vs Bengals+0.1-0.1-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers+0.0*+0.1-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.0-0.1-0.0
Lions vs NY Jets-0.0-0.1+0.0
Cardinals vs Redskins-0.0*+0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Steelers vs Chiefs+1.9-0.4-2.4
Bears vs Seahawks+0.0-0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns+0.0-0.1-0.0
49ers vs Lions-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-09900
14.514-1-1991
1414-2-098210
13-1-2964
13.513-2-195320
1313-3-08775001
12-2-281118
12.512-3-177139001
1212-4-05322191100300
11-3-25522191130
11.511-4-13228272400600
1111-5-012262710100101211000
10-4-2132530910021111
10.510-5-12172017172301722000
9-4-34191326963154
1010-6-00661717981169912000
9-5-207717179811498120
9.59-6-101099151329151636100
8-5-311131212142101414241
99-7-00002210108211111214105200000
8-6-2003210118211111214104100
8.58-7-1003411031141120181031000
7-6-34611321581919103
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-21170042612151614116210
7.57-8-100300000251321231893100
6-7-35114141723209611
77-9-0001000001251014171715106210000
6-8-210012510151717151062100
6.56-9-100001391824221462000
5-8-311372419261253
66-10-000000251017212015720
5-9-200141217202215720
5.55-10-100139202925112
4-9-347213020161
55-11-0000012819302812
4-10-202719302813
4.54-11-1015214132
3-10-345243
44-12-0002103553
3-11-2183853
3.53-12-1022177
33-13-0011287
2-12-221088
2.52-13-10595
22-14-00397
1.51-14-1100
11-15-0199
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333
Updated Saturday, 2023-10-21 11:15 PM Eastern (GMT-04:00)