SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sports Club Stats, which I have open
in like seven browser tabs always
-Katie Baker

Arizona Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Cardinals vs Redskins	+7.6-1.7-9.9		+2.5-0.9-3.3		-1.5*-0.0+2.0		+0.9-0.2-1.2
Raiders vs LA Rams	+1.0*+0.0-1.3		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	+1.0*-0.0-1.3		+0.1*+0.3-0.2		+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	+0.7*-0.1-0.9				+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.3*+0.1+0.4		-0.2*+0.0+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets	-0.3*+0.1+0.4		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons					+0.1*+0.2-0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
LA Rams vs Cardinals	-9.3+1.3+12.2		-2.7*+0.1+3.6		+1.3-0.4-1.7		-1.0+0.2+1.4
Bears vs Seahawks	+0.7*+0.3-1.0				+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.0-0.1
49ers vs Lions	-0.7*+0.2+0.9				-0.1*+0.1+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.3*-0.0+0.4		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns	-0.3*+0.4+0.4		-0.1*+0.2+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Falcons vs Panthers			+0.1*-0.2-0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers					+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs					+0.1*-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Cardinals finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		418	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.9	%	100	0															No		924
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		172
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.1		99	1			0												No		6,839	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		97.8		98	2	0		0												No		1,401	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		93.9		94	5	0		1												No		33,665
		12	-	2	-	2	In		99.2		99	1															No		119
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.5		89	9	0		1												No		6,268	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		75.8		76	19	1	0	3	0											No		111,740
		11	-	3	-	2	In		77.2		77	20	2		2												No		543
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		61.3		61	29	4	0	6	0											No		19,208
		10	-	3	-	3	In		70.0		70	17			13												No		30
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	37.8		38	37	11	1	12	1	0	0									No		272,460
		10	-	4	-	2	In		39.3		39	37	10	1	12	1											No		1,477
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		19.0		19	37	19	3	19	2	0	0									No		42,717
		9	-	4	-	3	In		13.7		14	51	12		19	4											No		73
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.1		6.5		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		505,893
		9	-	5	-	2	98.1		7.0		7	23	25	9	25	9	2	0									No		3,039	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.9		0.9		1	9	24	15	24	20	6	1	0	0							No		71,812
		8	-	5	-	3	94.7		1.8		2	15	28	13	20	17	4	1	1								No		114
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.9		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0	0				No		727,992
		8	-	6	-	2	69.7		0.1		0	2	13	18	13	24	20	8	3	0							No		4,604	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.3		0.0		0	0	4	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	0	0					No		93,297
		7	-	6	-	3	41.8		No			1	5	17	5	15	24	22	9	3	1						No		177
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.7		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0		No		821,246
		7	-	7	-	2	14.5		No			0	1	9	0	5	12	22	24	17	8	2	1	0			No		5,160	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0		No		91,772
		6	-	7	-	3	2.4		No					2			4	9	20	24	24	13	3	1			No		169
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	2	0	0.0	%	728,211
		6	-	8	-	2	1.2		No					1		0	0	2	6	15	26	25	17	6	1	0	No		4,634	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	No		71,836
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											1	5	30	29	26	7	2	No		112
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	12	25	31	22	6	0.3		504,779
		5	-	9	-	2	Out		No										0	0	2	11	25	32	23	7	0.5		3,076	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	10	29	39	19	2.3		42,781
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No														12	21	41	26	7.6		66
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	0	4	17	41	38	12.0		272,356
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No												0	1	3	17	41	38	11.9		1,473
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	0	5	32	62	33.1		18,968
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No														3	7	34	55	34.5		29
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	22	76	53.1		110,967
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															1	20	79	56.0		550
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	10	90	76.3		6,247	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	86.5		33,519
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																6	94	90.0		140
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	95.0		1,334	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.7		7,025	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																	100	99.5		196	*
1		1	-	15	-	0	Out		No																0	100	99.8		922	*
0	-0.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		426	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Cardinals vs Redskins	-1.8+0.3+2.4
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons	+0.1+0.1-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	-0.1*+0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
LA Rams vs Cardinals	+2.0-0.3-2.7
Bears vs Seahawks	-0.1-0.0+0.1
49ers vs Lions	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Falcons vs Panthers	-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs	+0.0+0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	100	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	1	1						0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	95	3	2		0				0
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	5	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	92	8	1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	76	13	9	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	53	22	19	1	1		0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	54	23	19	1	2				2
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	32	29	27	2	4		0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	43	27	17						13
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	26	27	9	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	28	26	10	9	0	1		11	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	20	17	17	2	3	0	17	2	2	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	1	12	33	18	11	1			16	3	4
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	16	9	9	1	2	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	7	6	17	17	8	8	1	16	9	8	0	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	0	1	0	9	9	15	13	2	9	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		2	1	14	13	15	11	3	4	16	11	6	4	1	1
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	14	10	5	1	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0	0	2	2	11	10	7	2	11	11	13	15	9	4	1	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1		0		0	0	3	5	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	3	1	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3				1		5	6	11		5	1	15	8	21	13	12	3	1
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2				0		1	1	7		0	0	4	2	6	12	14	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								2							1	2	6	16	21	20	18	12	2			1
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	10	6	2	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2								1				0		0		0	0	2	4	10	14	17	18	15	11	5	2	1	0	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0											0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																					2	4	6	16	27	23	13	5	3
6		6	-	10	-	0								0										0	0	0	0	0	2	5	10	17	21	21	15	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2																					0	0	2	5	10	16	22	21	15	7	2	1
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																							0	0	1	3	9	21	29	24	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																											8	15	27	33	9	8
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	0	2	8	19	30	28	12
		4	-	10	-	2																									0	0	3	10	17	28	31	12
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																										0	0	1	5	20	41	33
		3	-	10	-	3																												7	7	24	28	34
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	10	35	53
		3	-	11	-	2																													1	8	35	56
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	22	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																												0	0	1	13	87
		2	-	12	-	2																														1	9	90
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																														0	5	95
2		2	-	14	-	0																														0	2	98
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															1	99
1		1	-	15	-	0																															0	100
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3