Cleveland Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Browns vs Steelers+9.1-2.0-11.9
+2.5-0.8-3.2
-1.5*-0.2+1.9
+1.0-0.2-1.4
Colts vs Bengals+0.5*+0.7-0.7
-0.1+0.4+0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.0+0.1-0.0
Ravens vs Bills-0.5*-0.2+0.7
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
-0.1*+0.2+0.2
Lions vs NY Jets+0.3*-0.4-0.4
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.1+0.4
-0.1*-0.0+0.2
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.0+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.3*+0.5-0.4
+0.1*+0.1-0.2
+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*-0.1+0.4
-0.1*+0.3+0.2
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*-0.2-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1*+0.1+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Saints vs Browns-6.5+1.0+8.5
-2.1*+0.3+2.7
+1.3-0.4-1.8
-0.7+0.1+1.0
Steelers vs Chiefs-0.7*+0.0+0.9
-0.1*-0.0+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*-0.2-0.4
+0.1*-0.2-0.2
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Dolphins+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Titans vs Texans+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Browns finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
14.5-16InYes100No1,510*
1414-2-0In99.0%9910No7,068
13-1-2InYes100No20
13.513-2-1In98.59810No1,430*
1313-3-0In94.0945001No33,432
12-2-2In96.99721No130
12.512-3-1In89.489901No6,343*
1212-4-0In75.976191030No111,605
11-3-2In77.9781912No534
11.511-4-1100.0%61.6622840600No19,078
10-3-3In60.0603244No25
1111-5-0100.037.7383711113100No273,393
10-4-299.940.14037911210No1,555
10.510-5-199.919.219371931920No42,849
9-4-3In11.31144201204No71
1010-6-098.16.46232692410200No506,214
9-5-298.56.7723251024910No3,085*
9.59-6-192.80.919241523206100No71,639
8-5-392.21.6272910202562No128
99-7-069.00.102121813231993000No726,400
8-6-269.00.1021317142320920No4,555*
8.58-7-137.2No04153152623113000No92,981
7-6-338.6No416216292192No171
88-8-014.7No019141322231682000No819,907
7-7-213.5No180413232417720No5,254*
7.57-8-13.7No030028202823113000No92,234
6-7-33.4No3113182624123No147
77-9-01.3No0100027162425177100.0%728,957
6-8-21.2No1002616262517610No4,496*
6.56-9-10.2No00031125312171No71,416
5-8-3OutNo21131281892No119
66-10-00.1No0000131125322260.3505,594
5-9-20.0No0031124322370.43,019*
5.55-10-10.0No0002102939192.242,530
4-9-3OutNo3103029291.377
55-11-00.0No000417413812.0272,960
4-10-2OutNo00416413913.41,505*
4.54-11-1OutNo006326232.519,042
3-10-3OutNo69137237.532
44-12-0OutNo002227653.2111,230
3-11-2OutNo3207750.3517*
3.53-12-1OutNo0109076.76,299
2-11-3OutNo10071.414
33-13-0OutNo0069486.333,454
2-12-2OutNo49689.7126
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.61,374*
22-14-0OutNo019997.46,930
1-13-2OutNo100Yes21
0-1.5OutNo10099.81,506*
Total:37.5%6.3%66666666666666663.1%4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Browns vs Steelers-2.0+0.3+2.7
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons+0.0*-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Colts vs Bengals+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Saints vs Browns+1.8-0.3-2.3
Steelers vs Chiefs+0.1-0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Dolphins-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Titans vs Texans+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts-0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-01000
14.514-1-1991
1414-2-097210
13.513-2-196310
1313-3-086850001
12-2-289821
12.512-3-176139001
1212-4-05422191100300
11-3-2552317112
11.511-4-133292624006000
10-3-3402024844
1111-5-01226289100101211000
10-4-21427261090111110
10.510-5-1217201817230163200
9-4-311212317311814
1010-6-0066171798116991200
9-5-207617179911698110
9.59-6-101099151329151736100
8-5-32169209281223262
99-7-000221010821111121410510000
8-6-202211107211111215951000
8.58-7-1003411031141119181041000
7-6-3441221151318179311
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-211700426121616141163100
7.57-8-100300000261321231893100
6-7-31313315252020811
77-9-0001000001251014171715106210000
6-8-2100125914171715105210
6.56-9-1000139182422146200
5-8-31313162427134
66-10-000000251017212015720
5-9-2000025916232115720
5.55-10-1000039202924112
4-9-31410212227131
55-11-000012819302812
4-10-2003818302713
4.54-11-10015204132
3-10-39193438
44-12-0002103553
3-11-20193950
3.53-12-1022177
33-13-0011386
2-12-22990
2.52-13-1496
22-14-00397
1.51-14-1100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333