Buffalo Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.4%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Ravens vs Bills-8.8*-0.7+8.8
-3.0-0.7+3.0
+1.7*-0.3-1.7
-1.1-0.0+1.1
Lions vs NY Jets+1.1*-0.1-1.1
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
+0.1*-0.4-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans-0.8*-0.0+0.8
-0.1*+0.4+0.1
-0.1-0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans-0.8*+0.1+0.8
-0.1*+0.3+0.1
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars+0.4*-0.3-0.4
+0.2*-0.2-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.3*+1.1+0.3
-0.1*-0.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.3*+0.1+0.3
-0.2*+0.1+0.2
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
LA Chargers vs Chiefs-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.1*-0.2+0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Bills vs LA Chargers+8.8*-0.7-8.7
+3.0-0.7-3.0
-1.7*-0.3+1.7
+1.1-0.0-1.1
Jaguars vs Patriots+0.8*-0.2-0.8
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Saints vs Browns+0.4*+0.0-0.4
+0.2*+0.0-0.2
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts+0.3*-0.8-0.3
+0.2*+0.1-0.2
+0.1*+0.2-0.1
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Bengals vs Ravens+0.1*-0.1-0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*+0.2-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bills finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
14.5-16InYes100No528*
1414-2-0In98.9%9910No2,487
13-1-2In90.09010No10
13.513-2-1In98.49810No488*
1313-3-0In93.694601No11,578
12-2-2In97.4973No39
12.512-3-1In88.9891001No2,089*
1212-4-0100.0%75.0752020300No37,522
11-3-2In74.3742114No187
11.511-4-1In59.159304060No6,437
10-3-3In50.05031613No16
1111-5-0100.036.837371211310No90,371
10-4-2In35.3354191130No490
10.510-5-199.818.2183620319300No13,953
9-4-3In28.6293225114No28
1010-6-098.06.06232692410200No165,352
9-5-298.25.9622279241120No980*
9.59-6-191.90.81924152320710No23,322
8-5-397.82.2211162029202No45
99-7-068.60.1021218132319930000No235,991
8-6-267.10.10212181223219210No1,491*
8.58-7-136.5No0315315272311300No30,040
7-6-335.5No3133163216133No62
88-8-014.6No019141322231682000No266,458
7-7-214.0No01914132224167200No1,702
7.57-8-13.6No03002920282311300No30,301
6-7-36.5No522101132326No62
77-9-01.4No010002716242516610No236,651
6-8-21.3No102616252617510No1,499
6.56-9-10.3No00031126312071No23,487
5-8-3OutNo391443293No35
66-10-00.1No000141225312160.2%165,890
5-9-2OutNo131127312260.4971
5.55-10-10.0No0002113039182.014,056
4-9-3OutNo13265210No31
55-11-00.0No000418413711.190,769
4-10-2OutNo0217443711.6474
4.54-11-1OutNo006326131.06,522
3-10-3OutNo89253.813
44-12-0OutNo002237551.637,612
3-11-2OutNo13187954.5198
3.53-12-1OutNo0118974.82,069*
33-13-0OutNo069386.011,597
2-12-2OutNo29878.041
2.52-13-1OutNo29895.5468
22-14-0OutNo19997.62,525
1-13-2OutNo100Yes6
1.51-14-1OutNo100Yes66
11-15-0OutNo010099.7337*
0-0.5OutNo100Yes142*
Total:37.4%6.2%66666666666666663.1%1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Ravens vs Bills+2.1+0.0-2.1
Lions vs NY Jets-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans+0.1+0.1-0.1
Patriots vs Texans+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers-0.1*-0.1+0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs-0.1+0.0+0.1
Colts vs Bengals-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Broncos vs Seahawks+0.0*-0.1-0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
Bills vs LA Chargers-2.1+0.0+2.1
Bengals vs Ravens+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.1+0.0+0.1
49ers vs Lions+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Redskins vs Colts+0.0*+0.2-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-01000
14.514-1-1100
1414-2-098110
13.513-2-195310
1313-3-08686001
12-2-29083
12.512-3-1761310001
1212-4-05223191203000
11-3-24827202131
11.511-4-13029283400600
10-3-31931256613
1111-5-01125271011110121100
10-4-2112529129011300
10.510-5-12161917182301733000
9-4-3291418214114
1010-6-00661716981159912000
9-5-2156161988114910020
9.59-6-1109815132915163710
8-5-3211791829201822
99-7-000221010821111121410520000
8-6-202210108210101317105100
8.58-7-100341103113112018103100
7-6-333103313112713103
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-201171042611151715105310
7.57-8-10030000261321231893100
6-7-352816182713102
77-9-000100000125101417171410521000
6-8-210035101417181594200
6.56-9-100001410182422136200
5-8-3331414172020333
66-10-000000251117212014720
5-9-200251118192014720
5.55-10-1001310212924102
4-9-363232236
55-11-000013920302711
4-10-2031118292712
4.54-11-1016204231
3-10-3153154
44-12-00002113652
3-11-21283555
3.53-12-1022375
33-13-00011386
2-12-22278
2.52-13-1496
22-14-0298
1.51-14-1100
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333