SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Being true to yourself,
80’s style

Buffalo Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

Add your own league!

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Ravens vs Bills	-7.8+0.8+10.2		-2.8*-0.2+3.7		+1.4-0.4-1.8		-0.9+0.1+1.2
Lions vs NY Jets	+1.0*-0.5-1.3		+0.1*+0.0-0.2		+0.1*-0.2-0.1		+0.1-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans	-0.7*+0.4+0.9				-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.7*+0.2+0.9		+0.0*-0.0-0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1		-0.0+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.3*-0.0+0.4		-0.1*-0.2+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.3*-0.1+0.4		-0.1*+0.2+0.2				-0.0*-0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	+0.3*-0.0-0.4		+0.1*+0.1-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs	+0.1*-0.1-0.2		+0.1*-0.0-0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Colts vs Bengals	+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.1*-0.3-0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers					-0.1*+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Bills vs LA Chargers	+7.6-1.4-9.9		+2.5-0.7-3.3		-1.5*-0.1+2.0		+0.9-0.1-1.2
Jaguars vs Patriots	+0.7*-0.1-0.9				+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Saints vs Browns	+0.3*-0.3-0.4		+0.1*-0.1-0.2				+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts	+0.3*-0.5-0.3		+0.1*-0.1-0.2		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
49ers vs Lions					+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Bengals vs Ravens					+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks					-0.1*-0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bills finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

16		16	-	0	-	0	In		99.8	%	100	0															No		410
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		12
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.9		100	0															No		904
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		203
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		98.9		99	1			0												No		6,874	*
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.5		99	1			0												No		1,433	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		94.0		94	5	0		1												No		33,698
		12	-	2	-	2	In		94.1		94	5			1												No		119
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.0		89	10	0		1												No		6,238	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		75.6		76	19	1	0	3	0											No		111,223
		11	-	3	-	2	In		78.8		79	17	2		2												No		467
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		61.2		61	29	4	0	6	0											No		19,263	*
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	37.7		38	37	11	1	13	1	0	0									No		272,313
		10	-	4	-	2	In		37.5		37	35	12	1	13	1											No		1,514
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		19.3		19	37	20	3	19	2	0										No		42,730
		9	-	4	-	3	In		19.4		19	30	19	3	24	4											No		67
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.1		6.4		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		505,970
		9	-	5	-	2	97.9		6.8		7	23	26	9	24	9	2	0									No		2,995	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.6		0.9		1	9	24	15	24	20	6	1	0	0							No		71,837
		8	-	5	-	3	88.2		0.8		1	6	26	17	21	18	10	1	1								No		119
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.9		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		727,095
		8	-	6	-	2	70.0		0.1		0	3	13	18	13	24	19	9	2	0							No		4,642	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.3		No			0	4	15	3	15	26	22	11	3	0	0					No		92,784
		7	-	6	-	3	41.6		No				4	14	6	19	22	19	14	3	1						No		161
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.6		0.0		0	0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	17	8	2	0	0	0		No		820,471
		7	-	7	-	2	13.8		No				1	8	1	4	13	22	24	17	8	2	0	0			No		5,204	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0	0	No		92,344
		6	-	7	-	3	6.1		No					6		1	2	6	19	31	22	11	3				No		180
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0	No		728,980
		6	-	8	-	2	1.2		No				0	1		0	0	2	6	16	25	25	17	7	1	0	No		4,538	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	No		71,750
		5	-	8	-	3	0.8		No					1					1	5	12	28	27	16	8	2	No		132
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	1	3	11	25	31	22	6	0.3	%	505,620
		5	-	9	-	2	0.1		No					0						1	3	10	25	33	21	7	0.3		3,073	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0.0		No					0						0	0	2	10	30	39	19	2.1		42,262
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No														15	24	42	18	No		71
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	0	4	17	40	38	12.0		272,792
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													0	4	18	40	39	11.4		1,507	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	0	6	33	61	33.2		19,020
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No															4	17	78	26.1		23
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	22	76	53.1		111,879
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No														0	2	22	76	53.1		559
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	10	90	77.0		6,237	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	87.0		33,254
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No															1	3	96	87.9		124
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	94.9		1,404	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.6		6,994
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																5	95	Yes		21
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																1	99	97.9		195
0	-1						Out		No																	100	99.6		1,271	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ravens vs Bills	+1.8-0.3-2.4
Lions vs NY Jets	-0.1-0.0+0.1
LA Chargers vs Chiefs	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Patriots vs Texans	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Colts vs Bengals	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	-0.0*-0.0+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bills vs LA Chargers	-1.8+0.2+2.4
Jaguars vs Patriots	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Bengals vs Ravens	+0.1*-0.1-0.1
49ers vs Lions	+0.1-0.1-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks	-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns	-0.0+0.1+0.0
Redskins vs Colts	+0.0*+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

16		16	-	0	-	0	100		0
15	.5	15	-	0	-	1	92	8
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	97	2	1						0
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	2	1						0
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	5	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	87	8	5						1
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	76	13	10	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	53	22	19	1	1	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	52	27	17		2				2
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	33	29	27	2	4	0	0		6	0	0
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	26	28	9	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	11	26	27	9	11	1	1		12	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	20	17	18	2	3	0	16	2	2	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	3	16	18	12	15	4	3		22	1	4
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	9	1	2	0	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	7	7	16	17	9	8	0	15	9	8	1	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	0	1	0	9	9	15	13	2	9	15	16	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		1		6	5	21	13	4	7	14	12	6	9	2	1
9		9	-	7	-	0	0	0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	14	10	5	2	0	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0		3	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	14	10	4	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	3	5	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						4	5	9		6	4	15	11	19	14	7	5	2
8		8	-	8	-	0		0		0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						1	1	7		1	0	4	2	6	12	15	15	15	11	6	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0		0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								6				1				2	3	13	27	21	16	7	4	2
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	10	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2						0		1				0			0	0	0	2	5	10	13	17	18	14	11	5	2	1	0	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0										0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3								1													1	4	18	14	27	14	11	8	1
6		6	-	10	-	0								0				0							0	0	0	0	2	5	10	17	21	20	15	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0														1	2	4	11	16	22	20	16	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1								0															0	0	1	3	9	20	29	25	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																										3	13	17	25	30	13
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	0	2	8	19	30	28	12
		4	-	10	-	2																									0	1	2	8	18	30	29	11
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																										0	0	1	5	20	41	33
		3	-	10	-	3																													4	26	43	26
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	10	35	53
		3	-	11	-	2																													2	10	35	53
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																												0	0	2	21	77
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	12	87
		2	-	12	-	2																														2	10	88
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																															5	95
2		2	-	14	-	0																															2	98
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															2	98
1		1	-	15	-	0																															1	99
0	-0.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3