SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Sometimes I
forget the point

Cincinnati Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Colts vs Bengals	-7.8+0.8+10.2		-2.8*+0.2+3.7		+1.3-0.4-1.8		-0.9+0.1+1.2
Ravens vs Bills	-0.5*+0.3+0.7		+0.1*+0.1-0.2		-0.1*+0.1+0.2
NY Giants vs Jaguars	+0.3*+0.2-0.4		+0.2*+0.4-0.2				+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets	+0.3*-0.0-0.4		+0.1*-0.1-0.2				+0.0*-0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	-0.3*-0.1+0.4		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	-0.3*-0.1+0.4		-0.1*-0.0+0.2		-0.1*-0.2+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Dolphins vs Titans	+0.1*-0.3-0.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons					+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys					-0.1*-0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Bengals vs Ravens	+9.1-2.4-11.9		+2.4-0.8-3.2		-1.5*+0.1+1.9		+1.0-0.2-1.4
Saints vs Browns	+1.0*+0.0-1.3		+0.1*-0.1-0.2		+0.1*+0.0-0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs	-0.7*+0.4+0.9		+0.0*+0.0-0.1		-0.1*+0.1+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts	+0.3*+0.2-0.4		+0.2*+0.0-0.2		+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.0*+0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers					+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Dolphins					+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles					-0.1*-0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bengals finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		413	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.8	%	100	0															No		949	*
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		98.9		99	1															No		184
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.1		99	1															No		6,950
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		22
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.8		99	1			0												No		1,375
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		94.1		94	5	0		1												No		33,534
		12	-	2	-	2	In		94.4		94	6															No		124
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		90.1		90	9	0		1												No		6,279	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		75.8		76	19	1	0	3	0											No		111,563
		11	-	3	-	2	In		78.5		78	18	1		3												No		525
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		61.6		62	29	3	0	6	0											No		18,936
		10	-	3	-	3	In		63.0		63	30	4		4												No		27
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	37.8		38	37	11	1	13	1	0	0									No		271,923
		10	-	4	-	2	99.9		37.5		38	38	12	1	11	1	0										No		1,541
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		19.2		19	37	19	3	19	2	0										No		42,540
		9	-	4	-	3	In		16.9		17	44	17	3	20												No		71
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.1		6.3		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0								No		506,402
		9	-	5	-	2	98.6		5.5		6	24	26	8	26	9	1	0	0								No		2,975	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.7		1.0		1	9	24	15	24	20	6	1	0	0							No		71,532
		8	-	5	-	3	96.5		1.4		1	6	22	18	29	21	2	1									No		142
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.9		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0					No		727,564
		8	-	6	-	2	69.8		0.2		0	2	13	19	13	23	19	9	2	0	0						No		4,636	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.3		No			0	4	15	3	15	26	22	11	3	0	0	0				No		92,896
		7	-	6	-	3	32.5		No				3	14	3	12	28	28	9	3							No		154
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.7		0.0		0	0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	16	8	2	0	0	0		No		819,803
		7	-	7	-	2	13.5		No			0	1	8	0	4	13	22	24	16	9	2	0				No		5,238	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0		No		92,832
		6	-	7	-	3	6.1		No					5		1		5	24	23	24	14	4	1			No		164
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	2	0	No		727,936
		6	-	8	-	2	1.2		No				0	1		0	0	1	6	16	25	27	16	6	2	0	No		4,564	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.3		No					0				0	0	3	11	25	31	22	7	1	0.0	%	72,171
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No											2	9	25	34	25	5		No		122
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	11	25	32	22	6	0.3		505,505
		5	-	9	-	2	0.0		No					0					0	0	3	12	25	31	23	6	0.3		3,094
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	0.0		No					0						0	0	2	10	29	39	19	2.1		42,805
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													1	7	30	35	27	2.9		105
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0						0	0	0	4	17	41	38	11.9		272,557
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													1	3	17	40	39	11.8		1,508
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	0	6	32	61	32.5		19,075
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No															9	27	64	45.5		22
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	22	76	53.0		111,881
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No															2	22	76	57.1		571
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No															0	11	89	75.9		6,257	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No															0	6	94	86.8		33,384
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																6	94	84.6		136
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No																2	98	95.1		1,456	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No															0	1	99	97.8		7,035	*
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1	Out		No																0	100	99.5		206	*
0	-1						Out		No																	100	Yes		1,292	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colts vs Bengals	+1.8-0.3-2.4
Dolphins vs Titans	-0.1+0.1+0.1
Panthers vs Cowboys	-0.0+0.1+0.1
Eagles vs Falcons	+0.0-0.1-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Lions vs NY Jets	-0.0*+0.1+0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bengals vs Ravens	-2.0+0.4+2.6
Saints vs Browns	-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
NY Jets vs Dolphins	+0.1-0.0-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Redskins vs Colts	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	99	0	0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	98	1	1
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	1	1
		13	-	1	-	2	95	5
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	3	1						0
13		13	-	3	-	0	86	8	5	0	0				1
		12	-	2	-	2	90	5	6
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	78	12	9	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	53	22	19	1	1	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	54	25	17	1	1				3
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	33	29	27	2	3	0	0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	41	22	30		4				4
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	26	27	9	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	26	29	9	11	1	1		10	1	1		0
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	20	17	18	2	3	0	17	2	2	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3		17	21	23	17		3		14	6
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	9	1	2	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	5	6	17	18	8	7	1	17	9	9	0	1	0	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	0	1	0	9	9	15	13	2	9	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		1	1	5	10	12	14	4	8	21	18	4	2	1
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	14	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0		2	2	11	10	9	2	11	11	12	14	10	4	1	0	0	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1				0	0	4	4	11	0	3	1	14	11	20	18	10	3	1	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3						3	3	11		3	1	12	12	23	18	10	3	1	1
8		8	-	8	-	0		0		0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2				0	0	1	1	7		0	0	4	2	6	11	16	17	15	10	6	3	1	0	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	0	2	5	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3							1	5				1			1	1	4	13	18	24	20	8	5	1
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0		0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	10	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2						0	0	1				0			0	0	0	2	5	10	14	17	18	15	9	6	2	1	0	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0										0	0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																						4	8	19	25	26	13	4
6		6	-	10	-	0								0											0	0	0	0	2	5	10	17	21	20	15	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0													0	1	2	5	10	18	20	21	15	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1								0															0	0	1	3	9	21	29	25	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																										1	9	21	22	30	15	3
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	1	2	8	19	30	28	12
		4	-	10	-	2																								0	0	0	2	8	19	30	28	12
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																											0	1	5	20	41	32
		3	-	10	-	3																														27	27	45
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	10	35	53
		3	-	11	-	2																											0	0	1	10	31	57
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																													0	2	22	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																													0	1	12	87
		2	-	12	-	2																															15	85
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																															5	95
2		2	-	14	-	0																														0	2	98
1	.5	1	-	14	-	1																															0	100
0	-1																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3