SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Chicago Playoff Chances 2018-2019

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%

0-0-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week. Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Packers vs Bears	-9.2+1.1+12.1		-2.7*-0.0+3.5		+1.3-0.4-1.7		-1.0+0.1+1.4
Lions vs NY Jets	-1.0*+0.1+1.3		-0.1*-0.1+0.2		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	-0.7*+0.0+0.9		+0.0*+0.3-0.1		-0.1*+0.0+0.1		-0.0*+0.0+0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.3*+0.2+0.4		-0.1*+0.4+0.2		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Broncos vs Seahawks	+0.3*+0.2-0.4		+0.1*-0.1-0.1		+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.3*+0.1-0.3		+0.1*-0.0-0.2		+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins	+0.1*-0.2-0.2		+0.1*-0.3-0.1		-0.1*-0.1+0.1
Ravens vs Bills					+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Saints vs Buccaneers					+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans					-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans					-0.1*+0.1+0.1

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Conf	100.0*	1st Pick	100.0*	Average seed
Bears vs Seahawks	+7.6-2.2-10.0		+2.5-0.9-3.2		-1.5*+0.1+2.0		+1.0-0.2-1.2
49ers vs Lions	+0.7*-0.3-1.0				+0.1*+0.1-0.1		+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Redskins vs Colts	-0.3*-0.0+0.4		-0.2*-0.1+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns	-0.3*+0.1+0.4		-0.2*-0.0+0.2				-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles			+0.1*-0.0-0.1		-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants					+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots					+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers					-0.1*+0.2+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Bears finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in				Chance will finish regular season at seed																1st
TW		W	-	L	-	T	playoffs		Conf		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Pick		Count

15.5	-16						In		Yes		100																No		420	*
15		15	-	1	-	0	In		99.5	%	100	0															No		876
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	In		Yes		100																No		195
14		14	-	2	-	0	In		99.2		99	1			0												No		6,894
		13	-	1	-	2	In		Yes		100																No		18
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	In		98.3		98	2			0												No		1,435	*
13		13	-	3	-	0	In		94.0		94	5	0		0												No		33,532
		12	-	2	-	2	In		96.5		97	3															No		143
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	In		89.1		89	9	0		1												No		6,088	*
12		12	-	4	-	0	In		75.8		76	19	1	0	3	0											No		111,002
		11	-	3	-	2	In		76.6		77	18	2		4	0											No		504	*
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	In		61.3		61	29	3	0	6	0											No		19,214
		10	-	3	-	3	In		52.6		53	32	5		11												No		19
11		11	-	5	-	0	100.0	%	37.7		38	37	11	1	13	1	0	0									No		271,181
		10	-	4	-	2	In		39.1		39	39	11	1	9	1											No		1,497	*
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	99.9		19.1		19	37	19	3	19	2	0										No		42,790
		9	-	4	-	3	In		21.0		21	36	15	5	20	4											No		81
10		10	-	6	-	0	98.1		6.4		6	23	26	9	24	10	2	0	0	0							No		505,937
		9	-	5	-	2	98.3		6.7		7	24	26	8	23	10	2	0									No		3,014	*
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1	92.8		0.9		1	9	24	15	24	20	6	1	0								No		71,791
		8	-	5	-	3	94.9		0.7		1	10	24	17	21	22	4	1									No		136
9		9	-	7	-	0	68.9		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	23	19	9	3	0	0	0	0				No		729,388
		8	-	6	-	2	70.0		0.1		0	2	12	18	13	25	19	8	2	1							No		4,553	*
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1	37.1		0.0		0	0	4	15	3	15	26	23	11	3	0	0	0				No		92,786
		7	-	6	-	3	37.7		No			1	4	16	4	13	24	23	10	5							No		183
8		8	-	8	-	0	14.7		No			0	1	9	1	4	13	22	23	17	8	2	0	0	0		No		821,189
		7	-	7	-	2	13.9		No				1	8	0	5	12	22	24	17	7	2	0		0		No		5,254	*
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1	3.7		No				0	3	0	0	2	8	20	28	23	11	3	0	0	0	No		93,051
		6	-	7	-	3	3.2		No					3			3	9	18	28	25	9	4				No		155
7		7	-	9	-	0	1.3		No				0	1	0	0	0	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0	No		727,325
		6	-	8	-	2	1.1		No					1			0	1	6	16	25	27	16	7	1	0	No		4,511	*
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1	0.2		No					0				0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1	No		71,758
		5	-	8	-	3	Out		No										1	3	11	23	29	24	9	1	No		123
6		6	-	10	-	0	0.1		No					0				0	0	1	3	12	24	32	22	6	0.3	%	505,290
		5	-	9	-	2	0.1		No					0					0	1	2	11	25	32	22	7	0.3		3,130	*
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1	Out		No											0	0	2	10	29	39	19	2.2		42,653
		4	-	9	-	3	Out		No													2	8	27	43	21	3.2		63
5		5	-	11	-	0	0.0		No					0							0	0	4	17	41	38	12.0		271,835
		4	-	10	-	2	Out		No													1	4	16	41	39	13.2		1,525	*
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1	Out		No													0	1	6	33	61	32.2		19,196
		3	-	10	-	3	Out		No														3	6	42	48	33.3		33
4		4	-	12	-	0	Out		No													0	0	2	22	76	53.0		111,520
		3	-	11	-	2	Out		No														0	3	22	75	54.0		563	*
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1	Out		No														0	0	10	89	76.1		6,274	*
3		3	-	13	-	0	Out		No														0	0	6	94	86.7		33,675
		2	-	12	-	2	Out		No																3	97	89.2		120
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1	Out		No															0	2	98	95.5		1,460	*
2		2	-	14	-	0	Out		No																1	99	97.5		7,030
		1	-	13	-	2	Out		No																	100	92.9		14
0	-1.5						Out		No																	100	Yes		1,552	*

Total:							37.5	%	6.2	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	3.1	%	4,632,976

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6	100.0*	Lottery seed
Packers vs Bears	+2.0-0.3-2.6
Lions vs NY Jets	+0.1*+0.0-0.1
Vikings vs 49ers	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Patriots vs Texans	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Saints vs Buccaneers	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Dolphins vs Titans	-0.0*+0.0+0.1
Ravens vs Bills	+0.0-0.0-0.1
NY Giants vs Jaguars	-0.0*-0.1+0.0
Raiders vs LA Rams	+0.0*-0.1-0.0

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13	100.0*	Lottery seed
Bears vs Seahawks	-1.9+0.4+2.4
49ers vs Lions	-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles	-0.1+0.0+0.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants	+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers	-0.0*+0.1+0.1
Jaguars vs Patriots	+0.0-0.0-0.1
Packers vs Vikings	-0.0+0.1+0.0
LA Rams vs Cardinals	*+0.0+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TW		W	-	L	-	T	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32

15.5	-16						100
15		15	-	1	-	0	100		0
14	.5	14	-	1	-	1	100
14		14	-	2	-	0	98	1	1						0
		13	-	1	-	2	100
13	.5	13	-	2	-	1	96	2	2						0
13		13	-	3	-	0	87	7	5	0	0				0
		12	-	2	-	2	90	7	3
12	.5	12	-	3	-	1	77	12	9	0	0				1
12		12	-	4	-	0	53	23	19	1	1	0	0		3	0	0
		11	-	3	-	2	56	21	18	0	2				4		0
11	.5	11	-	4	-	1	33	28	27	2	3	0	0		6	0	0
		10	-	3	-	3	21	32	26	5	5				11
11		11	-	5	-	0	12	26	28	9	11	0	1	0	12	1	1	0	0	0
		10	-	4	-	2	12	27	29	10	11	0	1		8	1	1
10	.5	10	-	5	-	1	2	17	20	18	17	2	3	0	17	2	2	0	0
		9	-	4	-	3	1	20	15	21	14	1	5		15	5	4
10		10	-	6	-	0	0	6	6	17	17	9	8	1	15	9	9	1	2	0	0
		9	-	5	-	2	0	6	6	18	18	8	8	1	16	7	9	1	2	0
9	.5	9	-	6	-	1		1	0	9	9	15	13	2	9	15	17	3	6	1	0	0
		8	-	5	-	3		1		10	9	15	17		7	13	19	3	4	1
9		9	-	7	-	0		0	0	2	2	10	10	8	2	11	11	12	14	10	5	2	0	0	0	0
		8	-	6	-	2		0	0	2	2	10	11	7	2	11	12	13	15	9	4	1	0
8	.5	8	-	7	-	1		0		0	0	3	5	11	0	3	2	14	11	20	18	10	3	1	0	0	0
		7	-	6	-	3				1		4	4	12		4	1	12	9	15	22	10	4	2
8		8	-	8	-	0				0	0	1	1	7	0	1	0	4	2	6	11	15	16	14	11	6	3	1	0	0	0	0
		7	-	7	-	2						1	1	7		0	0	5	2	7	11	15	17	15	10	6	3	1	0	0
7	.5	7	-	8	-	1						0	0	3		0		0	0	0	0	2	6	13	21	23	18	9	3	1	0	0	0
		6	-	7	-	3								3								3	6	15	21	23	14	10	4		1
7		7	-	9	-	0						0	0	1		0		0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5	10	14	17	17	15	10	6	2	1	0	0	0
		6	-	8	-	2							0	1							0	0	0	2	5	9	14	18	17	15	11	6	2	0	0
6	.5	6	-	9	-	1								0											0	0	1	3	9	18	24	22	14	6	2	0	0
		5	-	8	-	3																					1	2	7	24	29	19	11	5	2
6		6	-	10	-	0								0											0	0	0	0	2	5	10	17	21	20	15	7	2	0
		5	-	9	-	2								0													0	0	1	4	11	16	21	22	15	7	2	0
5	.5	5	-	10	-	1																							0	0	0	3	9	21	29	24	11	2
		4	-	9	-	3																										3	11	14	27	29	13	3
5		5	-	11	-	0								0															0	0	0	0	2	8	19	30	28	12
		4	-	10	-	2																									0	0	3	8	19	27	29	13
4	.5	4	-	11	-	1																										0	0	1	6	20	41	32
		3	-	10	-	3																													12	18	36	33
4		4	-	12	-	0																											0	0	2	10	35	53
		3	-	11	-	2																												0	2	8	36	54
3	.5	3	-	12	-	1																												0	0	2	22	76
3		3	-	13	-	0																												0	0	1	12	87
		2	-	12	-	2																														1	10	89
2	.5	2	-	13	-	1																														0	4	95
2		2	-	14	-	0																														0	2	98
		1	-	13	-	2																															7	93
0	-1.5																																					100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3