San Francisco Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 37.5%
0-0-0

How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did last week and who we should root for this week.   Explain

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
Vikings vs 49ers-8.8*-0.9+8.8
-3.0*-0.5+3.0
+1.6*-0.3-1.6
-1.1*-0.1+1.1
Broncos vs Seahawks+1.2*-0.4-1.2
+0.1*-0.1-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams+1.0*+0.6-1.0
+0.1*+0.3-0.1
+0.1*+0.0-0.1
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Cardinals vs Redskins-0.6*+0.1+0.6
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
-0.2*+0.1+0.2
NY Giants vs Jaguars-0.4*+0.5+0.4
-0.2*+0.4+0.2
-0.1*+0.1+0.1
Lions vs NY Jets-0.3*+0.7+0.3
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
-0.1*+0.2+0.1
-0.0*+0.1+0.0
Saints vs Buccaneers+0.1*-0.2-0.1
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Conf100.0*1st Pick100.0*Average seed
49ers vs Lions+8.9*-0.5-8.9
+3.0-0.7-3.0
-1.7*-0.1+1.7
+1.1-0.0-1.1
Bears vs Seahawks+0.7*-0.2-0.7
+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Redskins vs Colts-0.4*+0.5+0.4
-0.2*+0.5+0.2
-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Saints vs Browns-0.3*+0.3+0.3
-0.2*+0.0+0.2
Cowboys vs NY Giants+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1*+0.4+0.1
+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Steelers vs Chiefs+0.1*-0.3-0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.1*-0.2-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the 49ers finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed1st
TWW-L-TplayoffsConf12345678910111213141516PickCount
15.5-16InYes100No152*
1515-1-0In99.7%1000No329*
14.514-1-1InYes100No67
1414-2-0In99.29910No2,493
13-1-2InYes100No11
13.513-2-1In98.8991No509
1313-3-0In93.694601No11,486
12-2-2In94.7955No38
12.512-3-1In88.6891001No2,104*
1212-4-0In74.975202030No37,566
11-3-2In73.9741925No142
11.511-4-1In60.761294060No6,499
10-3-3In37.5383825No8
1111-5-0100.0%36.837371211310No90,205
10-4-2In36.63739111120No483
10.510-5-199.918.018372031930No13,982
9-4-3In11.81241181218No17
1010-6-097.96.262326924102000No164,761
9-5-297.67.2722279231020No1,003
9.59-6-192.30.919231624207100No23,817
8-5-394.3No926920316No35
99-7-068.40.1021218132319930000No236,467
8-6-268.3No212191422191020No1,512*
8.58-7-137.0No0315315262311300No30,377
7-6-331.4No2186614311482No51
88-8-014.6No019141322231782000No266,886
7-7-214.3No181412222516820No1,607*
7.57-8-13.8No04002821282311300No30,449
6-7-31.9No224272723124No52
77-9-01.4No010027162425167100.0%236,179
6-8-21.4No1002717242615610No1,493*
6.56-9-10.3No00031125312171No23,543
5-8-3OutNo1433221938No36
66-10-00.1No000141225312160.2165,525
5-9-2OutNo031225332160.51,014*
5.55-10-10.0No0002112939192.114,057
4-9-3OutNo2936297No14
55-11-00.0No0000418413611.390,288
4-10-2OutNo0519383812.9528
4.54-11-1OutNo006355930.46,463
3-10-3OutNo831733.36
44-12-0OutNo002237551.737,784
3-11-2OutNo287248.3180
3.53-12-1OutNo0109077.02,215*
33-13-0OutNo069485.711,458
2-12-2OutNo29881.042
2.52-13-1OutNo29894.4504*
22-14-0OutNo19997.72,485
1-13-2OutNo100Yes4
0-1.5OutNo10099.6562*
Total:37.5%6.3%66666666666666663.1%1,517,488

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Games Above .500
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/6100.0*Lottery seed
Vikings vs 49ers+2.1+0.1-2.1
Broncos vs Seahawks-0.1*+0.0+0.1
Raiders vs LA Rams-0.1*-0.2+0.1
Saints vs Buccaneers+0.1*+0.1-0.1
Lions vs NY Jets-0.0*-0.1+0.0
If winner is:HomeTieAway
Week of 9/13100.0*Lottery seed
49ers vs Lions-2.1+0.0+2.1
Cowboys vs NY Giants+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Buccaneers vs Eagles-0.1*+0.2+0.1
Bills vs LA Chargers+0.1*-0.1-0.1
Bears vs Seahawks-0.1*-0.0+0.1
Steelers vs Chiefs+0.0*-0.1-0.0
Redskins vs Colts+0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TWW-L-T1234567891011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132
15.5-16100
1515-1-09910
14.514-1-1991
1414-2-098110
13-1-2100
13.513-2-19531
1313-3-08686001
12-2-28785
12.512-3-175131001
1212-4-05223191200300
11-3-2542017225
11.511-4-13229262400600
10-3-313253825
1111-5-01126271011010121100
10-4-21224271210011110
10.510-5-1216191718230172300
9-4-312356181218
1010-6-00661716991159912000
9-5-21761616108115810020
9.59-6-11088151339151737100
8-5-391799119316
99-7-000221010821111121410520000
8-6-22210118212101216104300
8.58-7-100341103113112018103100
7-6-32612666221414104
88-8-00011701042611151614116310000
7-7-2117000416121617131162100
7.57-8-100300000261321231893100
6-7-3241213232313622
77-9-000100001251014171714105210000
6-8-210026913171715106210
6.56-9-1000149182422145200
5-8-311193122143
66-10-00000251117212014720
5-9-20241116202315620
5.55-10-10001310212924102
4-9-321212929
55-11-0000013920302711
4-10-20131017282813
4.54-11-1015224130
44-12-00002113552
3-11-21143748
3.53-12-1022077
33-13-0011386
2-12-221781
2.52-13-10594
22-14-0298
1.51-14-1199
11-15-00100
0-0.5100
Total:33333333333333333333333333333333