Washington Capitals Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Lost to Chicago Blackhawks 2-6, playoff odds down 3.7 to 21%

16 points 6 11-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-4.6-1.1*-0.6+3.9+4.0+4.4		-0.2-0.2-0.1+0.3+0.1+0.3		-0.5-0.1*-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Washington Capitals finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

113	-138						In		Yes		100																78	*
112		46	11		-	4	In		93.3	%	93	7															15	*
111		46	12		-	3	In		68.2		82	18															22	*
110		44	11		-	6	In		67.7		74	13	13														31	*
109		44	12		-	5	In		64.8		72	7	20														54	*
108		44	13		-	4	In		51.4		72	15	13														111	*
107		43	13		-	5	In		47.0		63	19	17	1	1												181	*
106		43	14		-	4	In		30.6		53	22	24		0												258	*
105		42	14		-	5	In		20.6		42	26	29	1	2		0										461	*
104		42	15		-	4	In		13.6		37	24	34	1	4		0										677	*
103		41	15		-	5	In		7.7		26	27	38	3	6		0										949	*
102		41	16		-	4	In		3.8		19	27	40	3	11	0	1										1,465	*
101		40	16		-	5	In		1.5		14	25	38	6	14	0	2	0									2,117	*
100		39	16		-	6	In		0.4		7	23	38	10	19	0	3	0									2,952	*
99		39	17		-	5	In		0.0		4	19	33	14	24	1	5	0									4,115	*
98		38	17		-	6	In		0.0		2	15	26	18	28	2	8	1									5,337	*
97		38	18		-	5	99.9	%	No		1	10	20	20	33	4	12	1	0								7,190	*
96		37	18		-	6	99.8		No		0	7	12	21	31	7	18	3	0								9,419	*
95		37	19		-	5	99.4		No		0	4	6	19	30	12	22	5	1	0							11,782	*
94		36	19		-	6	98.6		No		0	2	3	16	23	15	28	10	1	0	0						14,706	*
93		36	20		-	5	96.5		No		0	1	1	12	17	19	30	16	3	0	0						17,995	*
92		35	20		-	6	91.2		No		0	1	0	8	10	20	29	22	7	1	0	0					21,558	*
91		35	21		-	5	81.9		No			0	0	5	5	19	25	28	14	3	1	0					25,141	*
90		34	21		-	6	68.7		No			0	0	3	2	15	19	30	21	8	2	0	0				29,072	*
89		34	22		-	5	51.2		No			0	0	1	1	11	11	27	27	15	5	1	0	0			32,850	*
88		33	22		-	6	34.0		No			0		1	0	7	6	20	29	23	11	3	0	0	0		37,064	*
87		33	23		-	5	19.7		No			0		0	0	4	3	12	25	28	18	7	1	0	0		40,077	*
86		32	23		-	6	9.8		No					0	0	2	1	7	19	28	25	13	4	1	0		42,931	*
85		32	24		-	5	4.2		No			0		0		1	0	3	11	23	29	21	9	2	0	0	45,055	*
84		31	24		-	6	1.6		No					0		1	0	1	6	17	28	27	16	5	1	0	46,103	*
83		31	25		-	5	0.4		No					0		0	0	0	2	10	22	30	23	10	2	0	47,171	*
82		30	25		-	6	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	5	15	28	29	17	5	0	46,704	*
81		30	26		-	5	0.0		No							0		0	0	2	9	23	31	24	9	1	45,866	*
80		29	26		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	1	4	16	30	31	16	3	43,271	*
79		29	27		-	5	Out		No										0	0	2	9	25	35	23	5	41,143	*
78		28	27		-	6	Out		No											0	1	5	18	35	31	10	38,810	*
77		28	28		-	5	Out		No										0	0	0	3	12	31	37	16	34,713	*
76		27	28		-	6	Out		No											0	0	1	8	26	41	24	31,059	*
75		27	29		-	5	Out		No												0	0	4	20	43	33	27,529	*
74		26	29		-	6	Out		No												0	0	2	14	42	42	23,831	*
73		26	30		-	5	Out		No													0	1	9	38	52	20,045	*
72		25	30		-	6	Out		No													0	0	6	33	61	16,654	*
71		25	31		-	5	Out		No														0	4	28	68	13,611	*
70		24	31		-	6	Out		No												0	0	0	2	22	76	10,767	*
69		24	32		-	5	Out		No														0	1	17	81	8,841	*
68		23	32		-	6	Out		No														0	0	13	87	6,594	*
67		23	33		-	5	Out		No															0	9	90	4,933	*
66		22	33		-	6	Out		No															0	6	94	3,763	*
65		22	34		-	5	Out		No															0	4	96	2,779	*
64		21	34		-	6	Out		No																4	96	2,032	*
63		21	35		-	5	Out		No																3	97	1,456	*
62		21	36		-	4	Out		No															0	1	99	1,021	*
61		20	36		-	5	Out		No																1	99	631	*
60		19	36		-	6	Out		No																	100	490	*
59		19	37		-	5	Out		No																0	100	310	*
58		19	38		-	4	Out		No																1	99	195	*
57		18	38		-	5	Out		No																1	99	117	*
55	-56						Out		No																	100	116	*
54		17	40		-	4	Out		No																4	96	23	*
16	-53						Out		No																	100	99	*

Total:							21.0	%	0.1	%	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	10	11	12	12	874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+1.0+0.2*+0.1-0.9-0.9-0.9
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.1*-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	-0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

113	-138						100
112		46	11		-	4	93		7
111		46	12		-	3	68	14	18
110		44	11		-	6	68	6	13		13
109		44	12		-	5	65	7	7		20
108		44	13		-	4	51	21	15		12	1
107		43	13		-	5	47	16	19		17	1	1		1
106		43	14		-	4	31	22	22		24	1			0
105		42	14		-	5	21	21	25	2	26	3	1		2				0
104		42	15		-	4	14	23	22	2	31	3	1		4				0
103		41	15		-	5	8	18	23	4	31	7	3		6	0			0
102		41	16		-	4	4	15	20	7	32	8	3		10	0	0		1
101		40	16		-	5	2	12	17	8	24	14	6		13	1	0		2		0
100		39	16		-	6	0	6	13	10	20	18	10	0	17	2	0		3	0	0
99		39	17		-	5	0	4	8	11	13	21	13	1	20	4	1		5	0	0
98		38	17		-	6	0	2	5	10	6	20	16	2	21	7	2		8	0	1
97		38	18		-	5		1	2	8	3	17	16	4	20	13	4	0	11	1	1		0
96		37	18		-	6		0	1	6	1	11	13	8	14	17	7	0	15	3	3	0	0
95		37	19		-	5		0	0	4	0	6	9	10	9	21	11	1	17	5	5	0	1	0
94		36	19		-	6		0	0	2	0	3	5	10	3	20	13	3	18	11	9	1	1	0	0
93		36	20		-	5		0	0	1		1	3	10	1	16	13	6	13	17	14	2	3	0	0
92		35	20		-	6		0		1		0	1	7	0	10	10	10	8	21	16	6	7	2	0	0	0
91		35	21		-	5				0		0	0	5	0	5	7	12	3	22	14	13	12	5	1	0	0
90		34	21		-	6				0		0	0	3		2	3	12	1	17	9	21	15	10	4	1	0	0	0
89		34	22		-	5				0		0	0	1		1	1	10	0	11	4	23	14	16	12	5	2	0	0	0
88		33	22		-	6				0			0	1		0	0	7	0	6	1	19	8	16	19	14	7	2	1	0	0
87		33	23		-	5				0				0		0	0	4		3	0	12	3	10	18	20	17	8	3	1	0			0
86		32	23		-	6								0		0	0	2		1	0	6	1	4	11	19	22	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
85		32	24		-	5				0				0			0	1		0	0	3	0	1	4	11	19	23	20	11	5	1	0	0
84		31	24		-	6								0				1		0		1	0	0	1	4	10	19	24	20	13	5	2	0	0	0
83		31	25		-	5								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	4	10	18	24	22	13	5	1	0	0
82		30	25		-	6												0		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	10	19	25	22	13	5	1	0	0
81		30	26		-	5												0				0			0	0	0	1	4	11	20	26	21	12	4	1	0
80		29	26		-	6												0								0	0	0	1	5	13	22	27	20	9	2	0
79		29	27		-	5																					0	0	0	2	6	16	26	27	17	6	1
78		28	27		-	6																						0	0	0	2	8	20	29	26	12	2
77		28	28		-	5																							0	0	1	4	12	26	32	21	5
76		27	28		-	6																								0	0	1	7	19	33	29	11
75		27	29		-	5																									0	0	3	12	30	36	18
74		26	29		-	6																									0	0	1	7	24	41	27
73		26	30		-	5																										0	1	4	17	41	37
72		25	30		-	6																										0	0	2	11	39	48
71		25	31		-	5																										0	0	1	7	34	58
70		24	31		-	6																										0	0	0	5	28	67
69		24	32		-	5																												0	2	23	75
68		23	32		-	6																												0	1	17	82
67		23	33		-	5																												0	1	13	87
66		22	33		-	6																													0	9	91
65		22	34		-	5																													0	7	93
64		21	34		-	6																													0	5	95
63		21	35		-	5																														3	97
62		21	36		-	4																													0	2	98
61		20	36		-	5																														1	99
60		19	36		-	6																														0	100
59		19	37		-	5																														0	100
58		19	38		-	4																														1	99
57		18	38		-	5																														2	98
55	-56																																				100
54		17	40		-	4																														4	96
16	-53																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	3	2	4	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	6	6	6	7	8	8	9