SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Holy capitalism Batman,
we’re in the Wall Street Journal

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Beat Carolina Hurricanes 3-2, playoff odds up 5.6 to 46.6%

22 points 11 11-0

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+4.4+3.8+3.7-1.2-1.3-5.4		+0.4+0.1+0.3-0.1-0.2-0.4		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.2-0.6
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.5-1.0-0.5+0.2-0.1+0.2				-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.1-0.3-0.4-0.8-0.6-0.3				+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.1-0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning					+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals					-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0+0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres					-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild					-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Toronto Maple Leafs finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

117	-142						In		Yes		100																99	*
116		45	11		-	4	In		95.7	%	96		4														23	*
115		44	11		-	5	In		Yes		100																37	*
114		43	11		-	6	In		89.6		92	4	4														48	*
113		43	12		-	5	In		88.2		98	2															85	*
112		43	13		-	4	In		83.6		91	2	8														159	*
111		42	13		-	5	In		79.7		88	7	5														237	*
110		42	14		-	4	In		68.0		80	9	11														428	*
109		41	14		-	5	In		64.1		76	12	12														596	*
108		41	15		-	4	In		56.0		72	11	17		0												930	*
107		40	15		-	5	In		45.5		65	17	18	0	1												1,330	*
106		40	16		-	4	In		32.8		57	19	23	0	0												1,915	*
105		39	16		-	5	In		24.8		49	24	25	1	2												2,665	*
104		39	17		-	4	In		16.7		39	26	31	1	3		0										3,839	*
103		38	17		-	5	In		9.2		29	26	37	3	5		0										5,315	*
102		38	18		-	4	In		4.8		22	27	38	5	8	0	0										6,825	*
101		37	18		-	5	In		1.7		14	27	41	7	10	0	1										8,918	*
100		37	19		-	4	In		0.7		9	24	38	11	16	0	1	0									11,512	*
99		36	19		-	5	In		0.1		5	21	35	16	20	1	2	0									14,378	*
98		36	20		-	4	In		0.0		3	17	29	20	25	2	4	0									17,562	*
97		35	20		-	5	100.0	%	No		1	13	22	24	29	4	7	0	0								21,187	*
96		34	20		-	6	99.9		No		0	9	15	26	31	7	11	1	0								24,990	*
95		34	21		-	5	99.7		No		0	6	9	25	30	12	16	3	0	0							29,047	*
94		33	21		-	6	99.2		No		0	4	5	21	26	17	21	6	1	0							32,604	*
93		33	22		-	5	98.0		No		0	2	2	17	20	22	25	10	2	0	0	0					36,458	*
92		32	22		-	6	94.6		No			1	1	12	13	25	27	16	5	1	0		0				39,469	*
91		32	23		-	5	88.5		No			0	0	8	7	24	25	23	9	2	0	0	0				42,671	*
90		31	23		-	6	77.5		No			0	0	5	3	21	21	28	16	5	1	0	0	0			44,979	*
89		31	24		-	5	62.5		No			0	0	2	1	16	15	28	24	11	3	0	0				46,983	*
88		30	24		-	6	45.2		No			0		1	0	11	9	24	28	18	7	1	0	0			47,416	*
87		30	25		-	5	28.8		No			0		1	0	7	4	17	28	25	13	4	1	0	0		47,325	*
86		29	25		-	6	16.1		No					0	0	4	2	10	23	29	21	9	2	0	0		45,788	*
85		29	26		-	5	7.6		No			0		0	0	2	1	5	16	28	27	16	5	1	0		44,445	*
84		28	26		-	6	3.1		No					0		1	0	2	9	21	30	23	11	3	0	0	42,020	*
83		28	27		-	5	1.1		No					0		0	0	1	5	15	26	29	18	6	1	0	38,582	*
82		27	27		-	6	0.3		No					0		0	0	0	2	8	20	30	25	12	3	0	34,898	*
81		27	28		-	5	0.1		No					0		0		0	1	4	13	27	30	19	6	1	31,677	*
80		26	28		-	6	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	8	21	31	26	11	2	27,777	*
79		26	29		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	4	14	29	32	17	4	24,024	*
78		25	29		-	6	Out		No										0	0	2	8	23	35	25	7	20,375	*
77		25	30		-	5	Out		No											0	1	4	17	34	32	12	16,868	*
76		24	30		-	6	Out		No												0	2	11	30	39	18	13,689	*
75		24	31		-	5	Out		No												0	1	6	24	42	27	10,936	*
74		23	31		-	6	Out		No												0	0	4	18	42	35	8,814	*
73		23	32		-	5	Out		No													0	2	13	40	45	6,722	*
72		22	32		-	6	Out		No													0	1	9	36	54	4,894	*
71		22	33		-	5	Out		No														0	5	30	64	3,786	*
70		21	33		-	6	Out		No														0	3	27	70	2,652	*
69		21	34		-	5	Out		No														0	2	20	78	2,020	*
68		20	34		-	6	Out		No															1	16	83	1,436	*
67		20	35		-	5	Out		No															1	11	88	960	*
66		20	36		-	4	Out		No															0	8	92	684	*
65		19	36		-	5	Out		No															0	9	91	424	*
64		18	36		-	6	Out		No																5	95	285	*
63		18	37		-	5	Out		No																3	97	186	*
62		17	37		-	6	Out		No																5	95	129	*
61		17	38		-	5	Out		No																2	98	61	*
22	-60						Out		No																	100	178	*

Total:							46.6	%	0.6	%	2	3	4	6	7	8	8	9	9	8	8	7	7	6	5	3	874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.9-0.9-0.8+0.3+0.3+1.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.0*+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.1+0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0+0.0+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

117	-142						100
116		45	11		-	4	96				4
115		44	11		-	5	100
114		43	11		-	6	90	2	4		4
113		43	12		-	5	88	9	2
112		43	13		-	4	84	7	2		8
111		42	13		-	5	80	8	7		5
110		42	14		-	4	68	12	9		11
109		41	14		-	5	64	12	12	0	12
108		41	15		-	4	56	16	11	0	17	0			0
107		40	15		-	5	45	19	16	0	18	0	0		1
106		40	16		-	4	33	24	19	0	22	1	0		0
105		39	16		-	5	25	24	23	1	24	1	1		2
104		39	17		-	4	17	22	24	2	29	2	1		3	0			0
103		38	17		-	5	9	20	23	4	31	6	3		5				0
102		38	18		-	4	5	17	22	5	31	8	5		7	0	0		0
101		37	18		-	5	2	12	20	7	28	13	7	0	10	0	0		1
100		37	19		-	4	1	9	15	9	22	16	11	0	15	1	0		1		0
99		36	19		-	5	0	5	11	11	15	20	15	1	18	3	1		2	0	0
98		36	20		-	4	0	3	7	10	8	21	18	2	19	6	2	0	4	0	0
97		35	20		-	5		1	3	9	4	18	19	4	19	10	4	0	6	0	0		0
96		34	20		-	6		0	2	7	1	14	18	8	15	15	7	0	10	1	1	0	0
95		34	21		-	5		0	1	5	0	8	14	11	10	20	11	1	13	3	3	0	0	0
94		33	21		-	6		0	0	3	0	5	8	13	5	21	15	2	14	7	5	0	1	0
93		33	22		-	5		0	0	2	0	2	4	13	2	18	16	6	13	12	9	1	2	0	0	0
92		32	22		-	6			0	1		1	2	10	0	12	14	10	9	18	13	4	5	1	0		0
91		32	23		-	5			0	0		0	1	8	0	7	9	15	5	21	14	9	8	3	0	0	0
90		31	23		-	6			0	0		0	0	5		3	5	16	2	19	11	17	13	7	2	0	0	0
89		31	24		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	1	2	14	0	14	5	22	14	13	7	3	1	0	0
88		30	24		-	6				0			0	1		0	1	10	0	9	2	22	10	16	15	9	3	1	0	0
87		30	25		-	5				0				1		0	0	7	0	4	0	17	5	13	19	18	11	5	1	0	0	0
86		29	25		-	6								0		0	0	4		2	0	10	1	6	14	20	20	13	6	2	0	0	0
85		29	26		-	5				0				0		0	0	2		1	0	5	0	2	7	15	22	22	15	7	2	1	0	0
84		28	26		-	6								0				1		0		2	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
83		28	27		-	5								0				0		0		1	0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
82		27	27		-	6								0				0		0		0			0	0	2	7	15	23	24	17	9	3	0	0	0
81		27	28		-	5								0				0				0			0	0	0	2	7	15	24	24	17	8	2	0	0
80		26	28		-	6												0				0				0	0	0	2	8	17	25	24	16	6	1	0
79		26	29		-	5												0									0	0	1	3	9	19	27	24	13	4	0
78		25	29		-	6																					0		0	1	4	12	23	29	21	9	1
77		25	30		-	5																							0	0	1	6	16	28	29	16	4
76		24	30		-	6																							0	0	0	2	9	23	33	25	7
75		24	31		-	5																									0	1	5	16	32	33	13
74		23	31		-	6																								0	0	0	2	10	27	39	22
73		23	32		-	5																										0	1	5	21	42	31
72		22	32		-	6																										0	0	3	15	40	41
71		22	33		-	5																											0	1	9	37	53
70		21	33		-	6																												0	6	32	61
69		21	34		-	5																												0	3	25	71
68		20	34		-	6																													2	20	78
67		20	35		-	5																													1	14	85
66		20	36		-	4																													0	12	88
65		19	36		-	5																													0	10	90
64		18	36		-	6																														5	95
63		18	37		-	5																														4	96
62		17	37		-	6																														6	94
61		17	38		-	5																														2	98
22	-60																																				100

Total:							1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	5	3	6	3	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2