Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Beat Florida Panthers 3-1, playoff odds up 1.7 to 94.8%

35 points 17 4-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-4.1*-0.5-0.7+3.6+4.1+3.6		-1.8-0.7-0.9+1.3+1.2+1.4		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.4
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes					-0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0-0.0-0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes					-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0*+0.0+0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers					-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0*-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay Lightning finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

126	-155						In		Yes		100																305	*
125		43	13		-	4	In		99.3	%	99	1															143	*
123	-124						In		99.8		100																617	*
122		41	14		-	5	In		99.8		100		0														615	*
121		41	15		-	4	In		Yes		100																893	*
120		40	15		-	5	In		99.4		100	0															1,363	*
119		40	16		-	4	In		99.2		99	1	0														1,989	*
118		39	16		-	5	In		98.8		99	0	0														2,753	*
117		39	17		-	4	In		97.9		99	1	0														3,834	*
116		38	17		-	5	In		97.5		98	1	0														5,191	*
115		38	18		-	4	In		95.5		98	2	0														6,898	*
114		37	18		-	5	In		94.1		97	3	0														8,886	*
113		37	19		-	4	In		91.2		95	4	1														11,400	*
112		36	19		-	5	In		87.1		93	6	1														14,390	*
111		35	19		-	6	In		82.2		90	8	2														17,639	*
110		35	20		-	5	In		75.7		87	11	2		0												20,962	*
109		34	20		-	6	In		68.1		83	14	3	0	0												24,642	*
108		34	21		-	5	In		58.1		77	18	5	0	0												28,734	*
107		33	21		-	6	In		48.3		71	22	7	0	0												32,817	*
106		33	22		-	5	In		37.3		63	28	9	0	0												36,612	*
105		32	22		-	6	In		27.2		55	32	12	0	0												39,786	*
104		32	23		-	5	In		17.5		46	37	16	1	1		0										42,998	*
103		31	23		-	6	In		10.2		37	41	19	2	1		0										44,436	*
102		31	24		-	5	In		5.4		28	44	23	3	2	0	0	0									46,493	*
101		30	24		-	6	In		2.3		20	45	26	6	3	0	0										47,276	*
100		30	25		-	5	In		0.8		13	44	27	9	5	0	0	0									47,186	*
99		29	25		-	6	In		0.2		8	41	27	14	8	0	1	0									46,229	*
98		29	26		-	5	In		0.0		4	36	25	21	12	1	1	0									44,285	*
97		28	26		-	6	100.0	%	0.0		2	30	21	26	16	2	3	0	0								42,221	*
96		28	27		-	5	100.0		No		1	23	15	31	19	5	5	1	0								38,762	*
95		27	27		-	6	99.9		No		0	17	10	33	21	9	8	1	0	0							35,284	*
94		27	28		-	5	99.6		No		0	11	6	32	20	16	12	3	0	0							31,524	*
93		26	28		-	6	98.7		No		0	7	3	28	17	22	16	6	1	0	0						27,777	*
92		26	29		-	5	96.4		No			4	1	23	12	27	19	11	3	0	0						23,922	*
91		25	29		-	6	90.8		No			2	0	17	7	28	19	17	7	2	0	0					20,221	*
90		25	30		-	5	81.0		No			1	0	10	3	27	17	22	13	5	1	0					16,892	*
89		24	30		-	6	66.5		No			0	0	6	1	22	12	24	21	10	3	0	0	0			13,894	*
88		24	31		-	5	48.7		No			0		3	0	16	8	21	26	17	7	1	0	0			11,059	*
87		23	31		-	6	31.4		No			0		2	0	10	4	15	26	24	13	4	1	0			8,630	*
86		23	32		-	5	17.4		No			0		1		6	2	9	22	28	21	9	3	0	0		6,765	*
85		22	32		-	6	8.8		No					0		3	1	4	14	26	27	17	6	1	0		5,085	*
84		22	33		-	5	3.7		No					0		2	0	1	8	20	28	25	12	3	0	0	3,855	*
83		21	33		-	6	1.4		No							1		1	4	14	26	28	18	7	1	0	2,804	*
82		21	34		-	5	0.7		No							0		0	1	7	18	28	26	15	3	0	1,993	*
81		20	34		-	6	0.1		No					0					0	2	12	25	31	21	7	1	1,418	*
80		20	35		-	5	Out		No										0	1	6	18	35	26	13	2	936	*
79		20	36		-	4	Out		No											1	3	8	29	34	20	5	680	*
78		19	36		-	5	Out		No											0	1	9	18	33	31	7	437	*
77		19	37		-	4	Out		No												1	4	12	34	35	14	288	*
76		18	37		-	5	Out		No													2	8	22	47	22	180	*
75		17	37		-	6	Out		No														5	13	48	34	121	*
74		17	38		-	5	Out		No														1	10	43	46	70	*
73		16	38		-	6	Out		No															8	45	48	40	*
72		17	40		-	3	Out		No														7		36	57	14	*
71		16	40		-	4	Out		No														10			90	10	*
70		16	41		-	3	Out		No																29	71	7	*
69		16	42		-	2	Out		No																50	50	4	*
68		14	41		-	5	Out		No																50	50	2
35	-67						Out		No																	100	73	*

Total:							94.8	%	20.1	%	31	24	12	10	6	5	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.9-0.8-0.8
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.1
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+0.1+0.0+0.1-0.0*+0.1-0.1
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	+0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.1-0.0+0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

126	-155						100
125		43	13		-	4	99		1
124		43	14		-	3	100
123		42	14		-	4	100	0
122		41	14		-	5	100				0
121		41	15		-	4	100
120		40	15		-	5	99	0	0
119		40	16		-	4	99	0	1		0
118		39	16		-	5	99	1	0		0
117		39	17		-	4	98	1	1		0
116		38	17		-	5	97	1	1		0
115		38	18		-	4	96	2	2		0
114		37	18		-	5	94	3	3		0
113		37	19		-	4	91	4	4		1
112		36	19		-	5	87	6	6	0	1
111		35	19		-	6	82	8	8	0	2
110		35	20		-	5	76	11	11	0	2	0			0
109		34	20		-	6	68	15	14	0	3	0	0		0
108		34	21		-	5	58	19	18	0	5	0	0		0
107		33	21		-	6	48	23	22	0	7	0	0		0
106		33	22		-	5	37	26	27	1	8	0	0		0
105		32	22		-	6	27	28	30	2	12	1	0		0
104		32	23		-	5	18	29	34	3	14	2	1		1	0			0
103		31	23		-	6	10	27	36	6	16	3	2		1	0			0
102		31	24		-	5	5	23	34	9	17	6	3	0	2	0	0		0		0
101		30	24		-	6	2	18	31	14	17	9	6	0	3	0	0		0
100		30	25		-	5	1	13	26	18	14	13	9	0	5	0	0		0	0	0
99		29	25		-	6	0	8	19	22	10	17	13	1	7	1	0		1	0	0
98		29	26		-	5	0	4	12	24	6	18	18	2	9	3	1	0	1	0	0
97		28	26		-	6	0	2	7	22	3	18	20	5	10	6	2	0	2	0	0		0
96		28	27		-	5		1	4	19	1	14	20	11	9	10	5	0	4	1	1	0	0
95		27	27		-	6		0	2	15	0	10	17	16	6	15	9	1	6	2	1	0	0	0
94		27	28		-	5		0	1	11	0	6	11	21	3	17	13	2	7	4	3	0	0	0
93		26	28		-	6		0	0	7		3	6	22	1	16	15	7	8	8	5	1	1	0	0
92		26	29		-	5			0	4		1	3	20	0	12	14	13	5	13	8	3	3	1	0
91		25	29		-	6			0	2		0	1	16	0	7	10	18	3	16	9	8	6	2	0	0	0
90		25	30		-	5				1		0	0	10		3	6	21	1	16	8	14	10	6	2	1	0	0
89		24	30		-	6				0		0	0	6		1	3	20	0	12	4	20	10	12	7	3	1	0		0
88		24	31		-	5				0				3		0	1	15	0	8	1	20	8	14	15	10	4	1	0	0
87		23	31		-	6				0				2		0	0	10		4	0	15	3	10	17	18	13	6	2	0	0	0
86		23	32		-	5				0				1			0	6		2	0	9	1	4	11	19	20	16	8	3	1	0	0
85		22	32		-	6								0				3		1		4	0	1	5	12	20	22	17	9	3	1	0	0
84		22	33		-	5								0				2		0		1		0	1	5	12	19	24	19	10	4	1	0	0
83		21	33		-	6												1				1			0	1	5	13	22	21	18	11	5	1	0
82		21	34		-	5												0				0				0	1	5	14	20	24	20	11	4	1	0
81		20	34		-	6								0											0		0	2	5	12	22	25	20	9	3	0	0
80		20	35		-	5																						0	1	5	15	25	27	17	7	2	0
79		20	36		-	4																							0	3	6	17	23	28	17	5	2
78		19	36		-	5																								1	2	8	23	24	28	11	2
77		19	37		-	4																								0	1	4	14	25	34	18	4
76		18	37		-	5																										1	8	18	36	30	7
75		17	37		-	6																										1		14	29	36	21
74		17	38		-	5																												6	16	47	31
73		16	38		-	6																												10	8	45	38
72		17	40		-	3																												7	7	43	43
71		16	40		-	4																										10				20	70
70		16	41		-	3																														29	71
69		16	42		-	2																														50	50
68		14	41		-	5																														50	50
35	-67																																				100

Total:							20	11	16	8	7	6	6	4	3	3	3	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0