St. Louis Blues Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Lost to Nashville Predators 0-2, playoff odds down 6.9 to 54.7%

23 points 11 8-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-5.2*-0.9-1.2+3.8+4.1+4.4		-1.4-0.5-0.4+1.0+1.2+1.2		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.4-0.5+0.2-0.5+0.1-0.5				+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.4-0.1-0.3-0.0-0.0+0.3				-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets					-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes					-0.0*-0.1-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights					-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the St. Louis Blues finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-147						In		Yes		100																79	*
121		47	11		-	4	In		87.5	%	88	13															8	*
119	-120						In		Yes		100																45	*
118		45	12		-	5	In		91.4		97		3														35	*
117		45	13		-	4	In		98.6		99		1														70	*
116		44	13		-	5	In		96.1		99		1														128	*
115		43	13		-	6	In		95.0		99		1														221	*
114		43	14		-	5	In		91.0		98	1	0		0												321	*
113		43	15		-	4	In		88.9		96	0	3														540	*
112		42	15		-	5	In		87.2		96	1	3														713	*
111		42	16		-	4	In		76.5		92	2	6		0												1,146	*
110		41	16		-	5	In		71.9		91	2	7														1,639	*
109		41	17		-	4	In		64.4		86	3	10		0												2,214	*
108		40	17		-	5	In		53.7		80	4	16		1												3,137	*
107		39	17		-	6	In		42.8		73	6	19	0	1		0										4,379	*
106		39	18		-	5	In		32.1		65	8	25	0	2		0										5,821	*
105		38	18		-	6	In		22.4		56	10	29	0	4		0										7,765	*
104		38	19		-	5	In		14.6		47	12	34	0	6		0										9,816	*
103		37	19		-	6	In		7.9		36	14	39	1	10		1	0									12,502	*
102		37	20		-	5	In		3.9		27	14	42	1	13	0	2	0									15,365	*
101		36	20		-	6	100.0	%	1.4		19	15	42	3	19	0	3	0	0								18,404	*
100		36	21		-	5	100.0		0.5		11	13	40	5	25	0	5	0	0								21,871	*
99		35	21		-	6	100.0		0.1		6	11	35	7	31	0	9	1	0								25,666	*
98		35	22		-	5	99.9		0.0		3	9	27	9	34	1	14	2	0	0							29,489	*
97		34	22		-	6	99.7		0.0		1	6	19	11	36	3	20	4	0	0							33,164	*
96		34	23		-	5	99.3		0.0		1	4	11	12	34	5	26	7	1	0							36,470	*
95		33	23		-	6	98.2		No		0	2	6	10	29	8	31	12	2	0							39,929	*
94		33	24		-	5	95.8		No		0	1	3	8	21	10	34	18	4	0	0	0					42,823	*
93		32	24		-	6	91.2		No		0	1	1	5	14	12	33	26	8	1	0	0					44,756	*
92		32	25		-	5	82.7		No			0	0	3	7	12	29	31	14	3	0	0					45,823	*
91		31	25		-	6	70.0		No			0	0	2	3	10	22	33	21	7	1	0	0				46,644	*
90		31	26		-	5	52.8		No			0	0	1	1	7	13	31	28	14	4	1	0	0			46,079	*
89		30	26		-	6	35.8		No			0		0	0	4	7	24	31	21	9	2	0	0	0		45,143	*
88		30	27		-	5	20.4		No					0	0	2	3	15	28	28	16	6	1	0	0		43,402	*
87		29	27		-	6	10.3		No					0	0	1	1	8	21	29	24	12	3	0	0		40,776	*
86		29	28		-	5	4.5		No					0		0	0	4	13	25	29	19	7	1	0		37,886	*
85		28	28		-	6	1.5		No					0	0	0	0	1	7	18	29	27	14	3	0		34,372	*
84		28	29		-	5	0.5		No							0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1		30,996	*
83		27	29		-	6	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	6	18	31	29	13	2		27,046	*
82		27	30		-	5	0.0		No							0		0	0	2	11	26	34	21	5		23,339	*
81		26	30		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	1	6	20	35	29	9		19,665	*
80		26	31		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	14	32	37	14		16,594	*
79		25	31		-	6	Out		No										0	0	1	8	27	41	22		13,526	*
78		25	32		-	5	Out		No											0	0	5	21	43	31		11,012	*
77		24	32		-	6	Out		No												0	2	14	41	42		8,676	*
76		24	33		-	5	Out		No												0	1	10	39	50		6,686	*
75		23	33		-	6	Out		No													1	6	33	60		5,129	*
74		23	34		-	5	Out		No													0	4	28	68		3,670	*
73		22	34		-	6	Out		No														2	22	76		2,798	*
72		22	35		-	5	Out		No													0	1	16	83		2,075	*
71		21	35		-	6	Out		No														0	14	86		1,421	*
70		21	36		-	5	Out		No														0	8	92		1,000	*
69		20	36		-	6	Out		No														0	8	92		696	*
68		20	37		-	5	Out		No															5	95		482	*
67		19	37		-	6	Out		No															5	95		288	*
66		19	38		-	5	Out		No															1	99		183	*
65		18	38		-	6	Out		No															1	99		128	*
23	-64						Out		No																100		289	*

Total:							54.7	%	1.8	%	5	3	8	3	10	4	12	11	9	8	7	7	6	5	4		874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	+1.1+0.3+0.3-0.8-0.8-0.9
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.1
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.1+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0+0.1
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.1+0.0+0.0*-0.0+0.0+0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

122	-147						100
121		47	11		-	4	88		13
119	-120						100
118		45	12		-	5	91	6			3
117		45	13		-	4	99				1
116		44	13		-	5	96	3			1
115		43	13		-	6	95	4			1
114		43	14		-	5	91	7	1		0				0
113		43	15		-	4	89	8	0		3
112		42	15		-	5	87	9	1		3
111		42	16		-	4	77	16	2		6				0
110		41	16		-	5	72	19	2		7
109		41	17		-	4	64	22	3	0	10	0			0
108		40	17		-	5	54	26	4	0	16	0			1
107		39	17		-	6	43	31	6	0	19	0	0		1				0
106		39	18		-	5	32	33	7	1	24	1	0		2				0
105		38	18		-	6	22	34	9	1	28	2	0		4				0
104		38	19		-	5	15	32	10	2	31	3	0		6	0			0
103		37	19		-	6	8	28	11	3	33	6	1		10	0			1		0
102		37	20		-	5	4	23	10	5	33	9	1	0	13	0	0		2		0
101		36	20		-	6	1	17	9	6	28	13	3	0	19	0	0		3	0	0		0
100		36	21		-	5	1	11	6	7	23	18	4	0	24	1	0		5	0	0		0
99		35	21		-	6	0	6	4	7	15	20	7	0	28	3	0		9	0	1		0
98		35	22		-	5	0	3	2	6	8	19	8	1	29	6	1	0	14	0	2		0	0
97		34	22		-	6	0	1	1	5	3	15	9	3	26	10	3	0	19	1	4	0	0	0
96		34	23		-	5	0	1	0	4	1	11	7	4	20	14	5	0	24	2	7	0	1	0
95		33	23		-	6		0	0	2	0	6	5	5	12	16	7	0	28	3	12	0	2	0
94		33	24		-	5		0	0	1	0	3	3	5	6	15	9	1	27	7	18	0	4	0	0	0
93		32	24		-	6		0	0	1	0	1	1	4	2	12	9	3	22	11	24	1	8	1	0	0
92		32	25		-	5				0		0	0	3	0	7	7	5	14	15	28	4	14	3	0	0
91		31	25		-	6				0		0	0	2	0	3	4	6	7	15	25	9	21	8	2	0	0
90		31	26		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	1	2	5	2	11	17	14	25	15	5	1	0	0
89		30	26		-	6				0			0	0		0	1	4	0	7	8	16	23	23	13	5	1	0	0		0
88		30	27		-	5								0		0	0	2	0	3	2	12	14	24	22	13	5	1	0	0	0
87		29	27		-	6								0		0	0	1		1	1	7	6	17	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
86		29	28		-	5								0			0	0		0	0	4	2	8	17	23	22	14	7	2	1	0	0
85		28	28		-	6								0		0		0		0	0	1	0	2	7	16	23	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
84		28	29		-	5												0		0		0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
83		27	29		-	6												0		0		0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
82		27	30		-	5												0				0		0	0	0	2	6	14	22	25	18	9	3	1	0
81		26	30		-	6												0								0	0	2	7	14	23	25	18	8	3	0	0
80		26	31		-	5																					0	0	2	7	16	24	25	17	7	1	0
79		25	31		-	6																					0	0	1	2	9	18	27	25	14	4	0
78		25	32		-	5																						0	0	1	4	11	23	28	22	10	1
77		24	32		-	6																								0	1	5	15	27	29	18	4
76		24	33		-	5																							0	0	0	2	9	22	33	26	7
75		23	33		-	6																									0	1	4	16	31	35	14
74		23	34		-	5																									0	0	2	9	27	39	22
73		22	34		-	6																										0	1	5	20	40	34
72		22	35		-	5																											0	2	14	41	43
71		21	35		-	6																												1	9	36	53
70		21	36		-	5																												0	5	31	64
69		20	36		-	6																												0	3	24	72
68		20	37		-	5																													2	20	78
67		19	37		-	6																													1	15	85
66		19	38		-	5																														8	92
65		18	38		-	6																														5	95
64		18	39		-	5																														3	97
63		18	40		-	4																														2	98
23	-62																																				100

Total:							2	3	1	1	4	4	2	1	6	4	2	1	8	4	7	3	6	5	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1