Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Pittsburgh Penguins Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Lost to Dallas Stars 1-3, playoff odds down 3.6 to 21.9%

15 points 6 11-3

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+4.6+4.1+4.2-0.9*-0.7-5.1		+0.7+0.6+0.4-0.3*-0.2-0.7		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1*-0.1-0.5
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes					+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Pittsburgh Penguins finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

114	-139						In		Yes		100																78	*
113		47	11		-	4	In		77.8	%	89	11															9	*
112		47	12		-	3	In		60.0		100																5	*
111		46	12		-	4	In		89.3		93	4	4														28	*
110		45	12		-	5	In		71.8		77	8	15														39	*
109		45	13		-	4	In		64.4		82	5	12														73	*
108		44	13		-	5	In		58.6		73	13	13														128	*
107		44	14		-	4	In		41.4		61	16	20	1	2												191	*
106		43	14		-	5	In		31.7		51	20	25	1	2												334	*
105		43	15		-	4	In		21.1		45	22	30	1	2												478	*
104		42	15		-	5	In		15.2		37	26	31	1	4		0										801	*
103		42	16		-	4	In		7.5		26	28	37	2	7		0	0									1,077	*
102		41	16		-	5	In		4.2		19	26	40	5	10	0	1										1,536	*
101		41	17		-	4	In		1.2		12	28	40	6	14	0	2	0									2,245	*
100		40	17		-	5	In		0.5		8	21	38	11	19	0	2	0									3,205	*
99		39	17		-	6	100.0	%	0.2		4	19	33	14	24	1	5	0	0								4,271	*
98		39	18		-	5	100.0		No		2	15	26	18	29	2	8	1	0								5,893	*
97		38	18		-	6	100.0		0.0		1	11	19	20	33	4	12	1	0								7,656	*
96		38	19		-	5	99.9		No		0	7	12	20	33	7	17	3	0	0							9,819	*
95		37	19		-	6	99.5		No		0	4	7	19	30	11	23	5	0	0							12,458	*
94		37	20		-	5	98.8		No		0	3	3	16	24	16	27	10	1	0							15,153	*
93		36	20		-	6	96.4		No			1	1	12	17	19	30	15	3	0	0	0					18,330	*
92		36	21		-	5	91.8		No			1	0	8	10	20	30	23	7	1	0	0					22,117	*
91		35	21		-	6	82.7		No			0	0	5	5	19	25	28	13	3	1	0					25,624	*
90		35	22		-	5	69.4		No			0	0	3	2	15	18	30	21	8	2	0	0				29,567	*
89		34	22		-	6	52.7		No			0		1	1	11	12	27	27	15	5	1	0	0			33,161	*
88		34	23		-	5	34.9		No			0		1	0	7	6	21	30	22	10	3	0	0			37,038	*
87		33	23		-	6	20.6		No			0		0	0	4	3	13	26	28	17	6	1	0	0		40,039	*
86		33	24		-	5	10.3		No			0		0	0	2	1	7	19	29	25	13	4	1	0		42,607	*
85		32	24		-	6	4.5		No					0		1	0	3	12	24	29	20	8	2	0	0	44,504	*
84		32	25		-	5	1.7		No					0		0	0	1	6	17	28	27	15	4	1	0	46,224	*
83		31	25		-	6	0.6		No					0		0	0	0	2	10	23	30	23	9	2	0	46,568	*
82		31	26		-	5	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	5	16	29	29	16	4	0	46,025	*
81		30	26		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	0	2	10	23	32	23	9	1	45,216	*
80		30	27		-	5	0.0		No							0		0	0	1	5	16	30	30	15	3	43,097	*
79		29	27		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	10	26	34	22	5	41,280	*
78		29	28		-	5	Out		No										0	0	1	6	19	35	30	9	37,683	*
77		28	28		-	6	Out		No											0	0	3	13	32	37	16	34,285	*
76		28	29		-	5	Out		No											0	0	1	8	27	42	23	31,005	*
75		27	29		-	6	Out		No												0	1	4	20	43	32	26,987	*
74		27	30		-	5	Out		No													0	2	14	42	41	23,367	*
73		26	30		-	6	Out		No												0	0	1	10	39	50	19,713	*
72		26	31		-	5	Out		No													0	0	6	33	60	16,318	*
71		25	31		-	6	Out		No													0	0	4	28	68	13,500	*
70		25	32		-	5	Out		No													0	0	2	23	74	10,840	*
69		24	32		-	6	Out		No														0	1	18	81	8,790	*
68		24	33		-	5	Out		No															1	14	86	6,635	*
67		23	33		-	6	Out		No															0	9	90	5,198	*
66		23	34		-	5	Out		No															0	7	93	3,783	*
65		22	34		-	6	Out		No															0	4	96	2,776	*
64		22	35		-	5	Out		No															0	4	96	2,080	*
63		21	35		-	6	Out		No																3	97	1,399	*
62		21	36		-	5	Out		No																2	98	1,041	*
61		20	36		-	6	Out		No																1	99	690	*
60		20	37		-	5	Out		No																1	99	453	*
59		19	37		-	6	Out		No																0	100	313	*
15	-58						Out		No																	100	610	*

Total:							21.9	%	0.1	%	0	1	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	9	10	11	12	12	874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-1.0-0.9-0.9+0.2+0.1+1.1
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.1*-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	-0.0+0.2-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0*-0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0*+0.1+0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.1+0.1-0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

114	-139						100
113		47	11		-	4	78	11	11
112		47	12		-	3	60	40
111		46	12		-	4	89	4	4		4
110		45	12		-	5	72	5	8		15
109		45	13		-	4	64	18	5		12
108		44	13		-	5	59	15	13		13
107		44	14		-	4	41	19	16		20		1		2
106		43	14		-	5	32	19	20	1	25	1	1		2
105		43	15		-	4	21	24	21	1	28	2	1		2
104		42	15		-	5	15	22	24	2	29	2	1		4				0
103		42	16		-	4	8	18	25	3	32	5	2	0	6	0			0		0
102		41	16		-	5	4	15	20	6	32	8	4	0	10	0	0		1
101		41	17		-	4	1	10	20	8	28	12	6	0	13	0	0		2		0
100		40	17		-	5	1	7	12	9	21	17	11	0	17	2	0		2		0
99		39	17		-	6	0	4	9	10	13	19	14	1	21	3	1		5	0	0		0
98		39	18		-	5		2	5	9	7	19	16	2	22	7	2		8	0	1		0
97		38	18		-	6	0	1	3	8	3	16	16	4	21	12	4	0	11	1	1		0
96		38	19		-	5		0	1	6	1	11	13	7	16	17	7	0	15	2	3	0	0	0
95		37	19		-	6		0	0	4	0	7	10	9	10	21	11	1	17	5	5	0	0	0
94		37	20		-	5		0	0	2	0	3	6	10	4	20	13	2	18	9	9	1	1	0
93		36	20		-	6			0	1		1	3	9	1	16	14	5	14	16	13	2	3	0	0	0
92		36	21		-	5			0	1		0	1	7	0	10	10	9	9	21	17	6	7	1	0	0
91		35	21		-	6				0		0	0	5	0	5	7	12	4	21	15	13	12	4	1	0	0
90		35	22		-	5				0		0	0	3	0	2	3	12	1	17	10	20	15	10	4	1	0	0
89		34	22		-	6				0			0	1		1	1	10	0	12	5	23	14	16	11	5	1	0	0	0
88		34	23		-	5				0			0	1		0	0	7	0	6	1	20	9	17	18	12	6	2	0	0	0
87		33	23		-	6				0				0		0	0	4	0	3	0	13	3	11	19	21	15	8	3	1	0	0
86		33	24		-	5				0				0		0	0	2		1	0	7	1	4	12	20	22	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
85		32	24		-	6								0			0	1		0		3	0	1	5	12	20	23	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
84		32	25		-	5								0				0		0		1	0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	12	5	1	0	0
83		31	25		-	6								0				0		0		0		0	0	1	4	11	20	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
82		31	26		-	5												0		0		0		0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	5	1	0	0
81		30	26		-	6												0				0				0	0	1	5	12	21	26	20	11	3	1	0
80		30	27		-	5												0				0				0	0	0	1	5	13	23	27	20	9	2	0
79		29	27		-	6												0									0	0	0	2	6	16	26	26	17	6	1
78		29	28		-	5																					0	0	0	1	3	9	20	29	25	11	2
77		28	28		-	6																							0	0	1	4	13	26	31	20	5
76		28	29		-	5																								0	0	2	7	20	32	29	10
75		27	29		-	6																									0	0	3	13	30	36	17
74		27	30		-	5																									0	0	1	8	24	41	26
73		26	30		-	6																										0	1	4	18	42	36
72		26	31		-	5																										0	0	2	12	39	47
71		25	31		-	6																											0	1	8	34	57
70		25	32		-	5																											0	0	4	29	66
69		24	32		-	6																											0	0	2	23	74
68		24	33		-	5																												0	2	17	81
67		23	33		-	6																													1	13	87
66		23	34		-	5																													0	9	90
65		22	34		-	6																													0	6	94
64		22	35		-	5																													0	5	95
63		21	35		-	6																														4	96
62		21	36		-	5																														2	98
61		20	36		-	6																														1	99
60		20	37		-	5																														1	99
59		19	37		-	6																														1	99
54	-58																																				100
53		17	41		-	4																														5	95
15	-52																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	2	3	2	4	2	3	3	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	9