Minnesota Wild Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Beat Ottawa Senators 3-2 (so), playoff odds up 3 to 32.2%

21 points 10 11-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-5.5-1.2-1.5+4.2+4.0+4.7		-0.9-0.3*-0.2+0.9+0.7+0.8		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.4+0.5
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.5+0.4+0.1-0.7-1.1-0.5				+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning					-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues					+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Minnesota Wild finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

115	-141						In		98.2	%	100																113	*
114		44	11		-	5	In		93.8		97		3														32	*
113		44	12		-	4	In		86.4		97		3														59	*
112		43	12		-	5	In		83.2		96		4														95	*
111		42	12		-	6	In		83.3		92	2	6														144	*
110		42	13		-	5	In		73.9		90	3	7														245	*
109		42	14		-	4	In		64.6		86	3	11		0												413	*
108		41	14		-	5	In		52.9		81	4	14		1												554	*
107		41	15		-	4	In		43.9		75	5	20		1												883	*
106		40	15		-	5	In		34.7		68	8	22	0	1		0										1,344	*
105		40	16		-	4	In		23.6		59	10	28	0	3		0										1,959	*
104		39	16		-	5	In		15.6		48	11	34	0	6		0										2,757	*
103		39	17		-	4	In		8.8		38	14	38	1	10		1										3,877	*
102		38	17		-	5	100.0	%	4.1		27	14	42	1	14		1	0	0								5,291	*
101		38	18		-	4	100.0		1.8		19	13	43	2	19	0	3	0	0								6,955	*
100		37	18		-	5	100.0		0.6		12	13	40	4	25	0	6	1	0								8,941	*
99		37	19		-	4	99.9		0.1		7	11	34	6	30	1	10	1	0								11,488	*
98		36	19		-	5	99.8		0.0		3	9	27	8	34	1	15	3	0	0							14,335	*
97		35	19		-	6	99.6		No		1	6	19	10	35	2	21	5	0	0							17,423	*
96		35	20		-	5	98.8		No		0	4	11	11	33	4	26	9	1	0	0						21,241	*
95		34	20		-	6	97.4		No		0	2	6	9	27	7	32	14	2	0	0						24,911	*
94		34	21		-	5	94.5		No		0	1	3	7	20	9	34	21	5	0	0						28,439	*
93		33	21		-	6	89.0		No		0	0	1	5	12	10	33	28	10	1	0	0					32,263	*
92		33	22		-	5	79.2		No			0	0	3	6	10	27	32	17	4	0	0					36,292	*
91		32	22		-	6	65.1		No			0	0	1	3	8	20	33	25	8	2	0	0				39,946	*
90		32	23		-	5	48.1		No			0	0	1	1	5	12	29	31	16	5	1	0	0			43,104	*
89		31	23		-	6	31.7		No			0	0	0	0	3	6	21	31	24	10	3	0	0			44,774	*
88		31	24		-	5	17.5		No			0		0	0	2	3	13	28	29	18	6	1	0	0		46,644	*
87		30	24		-	6	8.5		No					0	0	1	1	7	20	29	25	13	4	0	0		47,360	*
86		30	25		-	5	3.3		No					0	0	0	0	3	12	25	30	21	8	2	0		47,522	*
85		29	25		-	6	1.1		No							0	0	1	6	17	29	28	15	4	0		46,088	*
84		29	26		-	5	0.4		No							0	0	0	2	10	24	31	23	8	1		44,541	*
83		28	26		-	6	0.1		No							0	0	0	1	5	17	30	30	14	2		42,187	*
82		28	27		-	5	0.0		No								0	0	0	2	10	26	35	22	5		38,843	*
81		27	27		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	1	6	19	35	30	9		35,195	*
80		27	28		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	13	32	37	15		31,508	*
79		26	28		-	6	Out		No										0	0	1	8	27	41	23		27,709	*
78		26	29		-	5	Out		No											0	0	4	21	43	32		23,983	*
77		25	29		-	6	Out		No											0	0	2	15	42	41		20,369	*
76		25	30		-	5	Out		No												0	1	10	38	51		16,662	*
75		24	30		-	6	Out		No												0	0	6	34	60		13,779	*
74		24	31		-	5	Out		No													0	4	28	69		10,861	*
73		23	31		-	6	Out		No													0	2	23	75		8,445	*
72		23	32		-	5	Out		No													0	1	18	81		6,792	*
71		22	32		-	6	Out		No														1	13	86		5,047	*
70		22	33		-	5	Out		No														0	10	89		3,895	*
69		21	33		-	6	Out		No														0	7	92		2,682	*
68		21	34		-	5	Out		No														0	5	95		1,999	*
67		20	34		-	6	Out		No														0	4	96		1,439	*
66		20	35		-	5	Out		No															2	98		977	*
65		19	35		-	6	Out		No															1	99		651	*
64		19	36		-	5	Out		No															1	99		447	*
63		19	37		-	4	Out		No															0	100		295	*
62		18	37		-	5	Out		No																100		177	*
61		18	38		-	4	Out		No															1	99		122	*
21	-60						Out		No																100		243	*

Total:							32.2	%	0.4	%	1	1	3	2	5	2	8	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10		874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+1.1+0.2+0.2-0.9-0.9-0.9
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.1-0.1-0.0+0.1+0.2+0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.0+0.1+0.1-0.0*+0.0-0.1
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0-0.1
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.1-0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1-0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.0-0.1+0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

116	-141						100
115		45	11		-	4	93	7
114		44	11		-	5	94	3			3
113		44	12		-	4	86	10			3
112		43	12		-	5	83	13			4
111		42	12		-	6	83	9	2		6
110		42	13		-	5	74	16	3		7
109		42	14		-	4	65	22	3		11				0
108		41	14		-	5	53	28	4	0	14	0			1
107		41	15		-	4	44	31	5	0	20	0			1
106		40	15		-	5	35	33	8	0	21	1	0		1				0
105		40	16		-	4	24	36	9	1	26	1	0		3				0
104		39	16		-	5	16	33	10	2	31	3	0		6				0
103		39	17		-	4	9	29	11	2	32	6	1		10	0			1
102		38	17		-	5	4	23	10	4	33	9	1		14	0			1		0		0
101		38	18		-	4	2	17	7	6	30	13	2	0	19	0	0		3		0		0
100		37	18		-	5	1	11	6	6	22	17	4	0	24	1	0		6	0	1		0
99		37	19		-	4	0	7	4	7	15	19	6	0	27	3	1		9	0	1		0
98		36	19		-	5	0	3	2	6	8	19	7	1	29	5	1		15	0	3		0	0
97		35	19		-	6		1	1	5	3	16	8	2	27	9	2	0	20	0	5		0	0
96		35	20		-	5		0	0	4	1	10	7	4	20	13	4	0	25	1	9	0	1	0	0
95		34	20		-	6		0	0	2	0	6	5	5	12	15	7	0	29	3	14	0	2	0	0
94		34	21		-	5		0	0	1	0	2	2	5	6	15	8	1	27	6	20	0	5	0	0
93		33	21		-	6		0	0	0		1	1	4	2	10	8	2	22	10	26	1	10	1	0	0
92		33	22		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	6	6	4	14	13	28	4	16	4	1	0
91		32	22		-	6				0		0	0	1	0	3	3	5	6	13	25	8	24	9	2	0	0	0
90		32	23		-	5				0		0	0	1	0	1	1	4	2	10	17	12	27	17	6	1	0	0	0
89		31	23		-	6				0		0		0		0	0	3	0	6	8	13	23	24	14	5	1	0	0
88		31	24		-	5				0				0		0	0	2	0	3	2	11	14	25	23	13	5	1	0	0	0
87		30	24		-	6								0		0	0	1	0	1	0	6	6	17	24	22	14	6	2	0	0	0
86		30	25		-	5								0		0	0	0		0	0	3	2	7	17	24	23	15	7	2	1	0	0
85		29	25		-	6											0	0		0	0	1	0	2	7	16	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0	0
84		29	26		-	5												0		0		0	0	0	2	7	15	22	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
83		28	26		-	6												0		0		0	0	0	0	2	7	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0
82		28	27		-	5														0		0		0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0
81		27	27		-	6												0							0	0	0	2	6	14	23	25	18	8	2	0	0
80		27	28		-	5																				0	0	1	2	7	16	24	25	16	7	1	0
79		26	28		-	6																				0		0	1	3	9	19	27	24	14	4	0
78		26	29		-	5																						0	0	1	4	11	23	28	22	9	2
77		25	29		-	6																							0	0	1	6	16	27	29	16	4
76		25	30		-	5																							0	0	0	3	9	23	32	26	7
75		24	30		-	6																								0	0	1	5	16	32	34	14
74		24	31		-	5																									0	0	2	10	27	40	22
73		23	31		-	6																									0	0	1	5	20	42	32
72		23	32		-	5																										0	0	3	14	40	42
71		22	32		-	6																											0	2	9	37	52
70		22	33		-	5																											0	1	6	32	61
69		21	33		-	6																												0	4	25	71
68		21	34		-	5																												0	1	20	79
67		20	34		-	6																												0	2	15	84
66		20	35		-	5																													0	10	90
65		19	35		-	6																														9	91
64		19	36		-	5																														4	96
63		19	37		-	4																													0	3	96
62		18	37		-	5																														2	98
61		18	38		-	4																														1	99
60		17	38		-	5																														1	99
59		17	39		-	4																														5	95
21	-58																																				100

Total:							0	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	3	2	1	1	5	3	6	3	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	4	3