SPORTS CLUB STATS

Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

"...per the brilliant Sports Club Stats"
(thank you Mr. Dater)

Edmonton Oilers Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Did not play, playoff odds down 0.04 to 18.3%

16 points 7 12-2

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How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+4.9+4.4+4.3-1.3-1.7-5.3		+0.5+0.4+0.5+0.0-0.1-0.6		+0.5+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.2-0.6

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Edmonton Oilers finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

114	-138						In		Yes		100																76	*
113		46	10		-	5	In		85.7	%	86	14															7	*
112		45	10		-	6	In		69.2		100																13	*
111		46	12		-	3	In		90.0		95	5															20	*
110		45	12		-	4	In		73.2		90	10															41	*
109		44	12		-	5	In		56.7		87	12	1														67	*
108		44	13		-	4	In		63.8		86	11	3														116	*
107		44	14		-	3	In		37.3		70	25	5														161	*
106		43	14		-	4	In		35.2		67	25	9														315	*
105		42	14		-	5	In		25.1		58	27	14	1	0												419	*
104		42	15		-	4	In		17.8		50	37	12	0	1												634	*
103		41	15		-	5	In		8.3		36	41	20	2	1												1,034	*
102		41	16		-	4	In		3.0		27	48	20	3	2		0										1,439	*
101		40	16		-	5	In		1.6		18	46	25	6	4	0	0										2,104	*
100		40	17		-	4	In		0.5		11	46	24	13	6	0	1	0									2,929	*
99		39	17		-	5	In		0.2		7	41	23	17	10	1	1	0									4,154	*
98		38	17		-	6	100.0	%	0.0		4	35	19	24	13	3	2	0	0								5,501	*
97		38	18		-	5	100.0		No		2	28	14	30	16	6	5	0	0								7,034	*
96		38	19		-	4	99.8		No		1	21	9	33	18	10	7	1	0	0							9,395	*
95		37	19		-	5	99.5		No		0	15	5	32	17	17	10	3	0	0							12,004	*
94		36	19		-	6	97.8		No		0	9	2	29	13	24	14	7	2	0	0						14,726	*
93		36	20		-	5	93.8		No		0	5	1	24	8	28	16	12	5	1	0	0					17,935	*
92		35	20		-	6	86.1		No			3	0	17	4	30	15	18	10	3	1	0	0				21,584	*
91		35	21		-	5	73.1		No			1	0	11	2	27	12	20	17	8	2	0	0	0			25,132	*
90		34	21		-	6	56.1		No			1	0	6	1	22	7	19	23	15	5	1	0	0			29,232	*
89		34	22		-	5	37.5		No			0		3	0	15	4	15	24	22	12	3	1	0	0		33,050	*
88		33	22		-	6	21.6		No			0		1	0	10	2	9	21	27	20	8	2	0	0		36,962	*
87		33	23		-	5	11.2		No			0		1	0	5	1	5	15	26	26	15	5	1	0		39,815	*
86		32	23		-	6	5.0		No			0		0		3	0	2	9	21	29	23	10	2	0		42,812	*
85		32	24		-	5	1.9		No					0		1	0	1	4	14	27	29	18	5	1		44,709	*
84		31	24		-	6	0.7		No					0		0	0	0	2	8	21	31	25	11	2		46,320	*
83		31	25		-	5	0.2		No							0		0	1	4	14	28	32	18	4		46,955	*
82		30	25		-	6	0.1		No					0		0		0	0	2	8	22	34	26	8		46,715	*
81		30	26		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	1	4	15	33	34	13		45,866	*
80		29	26		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	2	10	28	40	20		43,528	*
79		29	27		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	0	1	6	22	43	29		41,224	*
78		28	27		-	6	Out		No										0	0	0	3	16	42	39		38,316	*
77		28	28		-	5	Out		No											0	0	1	11	38	50		34,891	*
76		27	28		-	6	Out		No												0	1	7	34	59		31,428	*
75		27	29		-	5	Out		No												0	0	4	28	68		27,365	*
74		26	29		-	6	Out		No													0	2	22	76		23,484	*
73		26	30		-	5	Out		No													0	1	17	82		19,945	*
72		25	30		-	6	Out		No													0	1	13	86		16,661	*
71		25	31		-	5	Out		No														0	10	90		13,865	*
70		24	31		-	6	Out		No													0	0	6	94		10,912	*
69		24	32		-	5	Out		No														0	5	95		8,611	*
68		23	32		-	6	Out		No														0	3	97		6,752	*
67		23	33		-	5	Out		No															2	98		5,057	*
66		22	33		-	6	Out		No														0	1	99		3,793	*
65		22	34		-	5	Out		No															1	99		2,822	*
64		21	34		-	6	Out		No															1	99		1,984	*
63		21	35		-	5	Out		No															0	100		1,438	*
62		21	36		-	4	Out		No															0	100		1,035	*
16	-61						Out		No																100		1,953	*

Total:							18.3	%	0.1	%	0	2	1	3	1	5	2	3	5	7	8	10	12	16	24		874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	-1.0-0.9-0.9+0.2*+0.3+1.2
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1*+0.1-0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.0+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	+0.0+0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.0*-0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

114	-138						100
113		46	10		-	5	86		14
112		45	10		-	6	69	31
111		46	12		-	3	90	5	5
110		45	12		-	4	73	17	10
109		44	12		-	5	57	30	10	1	1
108		44	13		-	4	64	22	10	1	3
107		44	14		-	3	37	32	25	1	5
106		43	14		-	4	35	31	24	1	8	1
105		42	14		-	5	25	33	24	4	12	1	1		0
104		42	15		-	4	18	32	32	5	11	1	0		1
103		41	15		-	5	8	28	32	9	17	3	2		1
102		41	16		-	4	3	24	34	14	16	4	3		2				0
101		40	16		-	5	2	17	27	19	17	8	6		4	0	0		0
100		40	17		-	4	0	10	23	23	13	10	12	1	6	0	0		1		0
99		39	17		-	5	0	7	15	26	10	13	15	1	9	1	1		1		0
98		38	17		-	6	0	3	9	26	6	13	21	3	12	2	3		2		0		0
97		38	18		-	5		2	5	23	3	11	23	7	12	4	6	0	4	0	0		0
96		38	19		-	4		1	2	18	1	8	21	12	11	7	10	0	7	0	1	0	0	0
95		37	19		-	5		0	1	14	0	5	16	16	7	9	16	1	9	1	3	0	0	0
94		36	19		-	6		0	0	9		2	10	19	4	9	21	3	11	3	7	0	2	0	0
93		36	20		-	5		0	0	5	0	1	6	18	1	7	22	6	11	5	11	0	5	1	0	0
92		35	20		-	6			0	3		0	2	15	0	4	18	11	8	7	16	2	10	3	1	0	0
91		35	21		-	5				1		0	1	10	0	2	12	15	4	8	15	5	16	8	2	0	0	0
90		34	21		-	6				1		0	0	6	0	1	6	16	1	6	11	8	20	15	7	2	0	0	0
89		34	22		-	5				0			0	3	0	0	2	13	0	4	5	10	18	22	15	6	1	0	0
88		33	22		-	6				0			0	1		0	1	9	0	2	1	7	11	22	23	15	6	2	0	0
87		33	23		-	5				0				1		0	0	5	0	1	0	4	4	14	23	23	15	7	2	1	0	0
86		32	23		-	6				0				0			0	3		0	0	2	1	6	14	22	23	17	8	3	1	0	0
85		32	24		-	5								0			0	1		0	0	1	0	2	6	14	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0
84		31	24		-	6								0				0		0		0	0	0	2	6	13	20	23	19	11	4	1	0	0	0
83		31	25		-	5												0				0		0	0	1	5	12	20	24	20	11	4	1	0	0
82		30	25		-	6								0				0				0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	25	20	11	4	1	0	0
81		30	26		-	5												0							0	0	0	2	5	13	21	25	20	10	3	1	0
80		29	26		-	6												0								0	0	0	2	6	14	24	26	19	8	2	0
79		29	27		-	5												0									0	0	0	2	7	17	26	26	16	5	1
78		28	27		-	6																						0	0	0	3	10	21	29	24	11	2
77		28	28		-	5																							0	0	1	4	14	27	31	19	5
76		27	28		-	6																							0	0	0	2	8	21	33	27	9
75		27	29		-	5																									0	1	4	14	31	35	15
74		26	29		-	6																									0	0	2	8	25	40	25
73		26	30		-	5																									0	0	1	4	18	42	35
72		25	30		-	6																										0	0	2	13	40	44
71		25	31		-	5																										0	0	1	8	35	55
70		24	31		-	6																											0	0	5	30	64
69		24	32		-	5																												0	3	24	73
68		23	32		-	6																											0	0	1	19	80
67		23	33		-	5																												0	1	15	84
66		22	33		-	6																												0	1	10	89
65		22	34		-	5																													0	8	92
64		21	34		-	6																													0	5	95
63		21	35		-	5																													0	3	97
62		21	36		-	4																													0	3	97
61		20	36		-	5																														1	99
60		19	36		-	6																														2	98
59		19	37		-	5																														1	99
58		19	38		-	4																														1	99
57		18	38		-	5																														1	99
16	-56																																				100

Total:							0	0	0	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	3	1	1	2	1	3	4	4	4	4	5	5	5	6	6	6	7	7	8	8