Dallas Stars Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Beat Pittsburgh Penguins 3-1, playoff odds up 2.6 to 81.7%

31 points 15 6-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-4.6-0.9-0.9+3.9+3.2+3.8		-1.6-0.4-0.3+1.4+1.1+1.3		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.3+0.4
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.4-0.2-0.7+0.0+0.1+0.2				-0.1-0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues					-0.0-0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes					-0.0+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild					-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks					-0.0-0.0-0.0-0.0*-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Dallas Stars finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-151						In		99.6	%	100																691	*
119		41	13		-	6	In		98.7		100		0														396	*
118		41	14		-	5	In		98.4		100																628	*
117		41	15		-	4	In		97.5		100	0	0														931	*
116		40	15		-	5	In		96.1		100	0	0														1,367	*
115		40	16		-	4	In		94.8		99	0	1														1,964	*
114		39	16		-	5	In		92.4		99	0	1														2,813	*
113		39	17		-	4	In		88.6		98	1	2														3,771	*
112		38	17		-	5	In		84.6		97	1	3														5,179	*
111		37	17		-	6	In		78.6		95	1	4		0												6,873	*
110		37	18		-	5	In		71.5		92	2	6		0												9,104	*
109		37	19		-	4	In		63.9		88	3	8		0												11,620	*
108		36	19		-	5	In		54.3		84	5	11		0												14,266	*
107		35	19		-	6	In		43.3		77	7	16	0	1		0										17,525	*
106		35	20		-	5	In		33.3		71	9	19	0	1		0										21,114	*
105		34	20		-	6	In		23.2		62	11	25	0	2		0										24,834	*
104		34	21		-	5	In		15.1		52	14	30	0	4		0	0									28,707	*
103		33	21		-	6	In		8.4		42	15	35	1	6	0	0	0									32,389	*
102		33	22		-	5	In		4.4		31	17	39	1	10	0	1	0									36,133	*
101		32	22		-	6	In		1.8		22	17	41	3	14	0	2	0									39,685	*
100		32	23		-	5	100.0	%	0.6		15	17	40	5	20	0	3	0	0								42,687	*
99		31	23		-	6	100.0		0.1		8	15	37	8	26	0	6	0	0								45,219	*
98		31	24		-	5	100.0		0.1		4	12	30	11	31	1	10	1	0								46,289	*
97		30	24		-	6	99.9		0.0		2	9	22	13	34	2	15	3	0	0							47,485	*
96		30	25		-	5	99.6		No		1	6	14	14	34	5	20	5	0	0							47,552	*
95		29	25		-	6	98.8		No		0	4	8	14	30	8	26	8	1	0							45,937	*
94		29	26		-	5	97.0		No		0	2	4	12	23	12	30	14	3	0	0						44,498	*
93		28	26		-	6	93.3		No		0	1	2	9	16	14	32	21	6	1	0	0					41,829	*
92		28	27		-	5	85.8		No			0	0	6	9	15	29	27	11	2	0	0					38,902	*
91		27	27		-	6	73.6		No			0	0	3	4	13	22	31	19	6	1	0	0				35,376	*
90		27	28		-	5	57.2		No			0	0	2	2	10	15	29	26	12	3	1	0	0			31,666	*
89		26	28		-	6	39.3		No			0		1	0	7	8	23	29	21	9	2	0	0			27,511	*
88		26	29		-	5	23.3		No			0		0	0	4	4	15	28	27	16	6	1	0			23,820	*
87		25	29		-	6	11.6		No			0		0	0	2	1	8	21	29	23	12	3	0	0		20,383	*
86		25	30		-	5	4.9		No					0		1	0	3	13	25	29	19	7	1	0		16,975	*
85		24	30		-	6	1.9		No					0	0	0	0	1	7	18	28	27	15	3	0		13,987	*
84		24	31		-	5	0.6		No							0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	8	1		11,120	*
83		23	31		-	6	0.2		No							0		0	1	6	17	30	29	14	2		8,624	*
82		23	32		-	5	0.0		No									0	0	2	10	27	34	21	5		6,721	*
81		22	32		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	0	1	6	20	34	30	10		5,015	*
80		22	33		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	13	31	37	16		3,713	*
79		21	33		-	6	Out		No											0	1	7	27	41	24		2,693	*
78		21	34		-	5	Out		No											0	1	4	19	41	35		2,038	*
77		20	34		-	6	Out		No												0	2	14	41	42		1,412	*
76		20	35		-	5	Out		No												0	1	7	39	52		966	*
75		19	35		-	6	Out		No													0	6	31	63		649	*
74		19	36		-	5	Out		No													0	3	21	76		431	*
73		19	37		-	4	Out		No														2	20	78		297	*
72		18	37		-	5	Out		No															12	88		177	*
71		17	37		-	6	Out		No														2	17	82		121	*
70		17	38		-	5	Out		No															7	93		67	*
69		17	39		-	4	Out		No															2	98		55	*
68		16	39		-	5	Out		No															6	94		33	*
31	-67						Out		No																100		102	*

Total:							81.7	%	8.4	%	18	7	16	5	13	4	11	8	5	4	3	2	2	1	1		874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+1.0*+0.2+0.2-0.8-0.7-0.8
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0-0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	+0.0+0.2+0.1+0.1+0.2+0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0+0.1-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1+0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.0-0.0+0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.0
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks	+0.0*+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	+0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks	+0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

121	-151						100
120		42	13		-	5	99	1
119		41	13		-	6	99	1			0
118		41	14		-	5	98	2
117		41	15		-	4	98	2	0		0
116		40	15		-	5	96	4	0		0
115		40	16		-	4	95	4	0		1
114		39	16		-	5	92	6	0		1
113		39	17		-	4	89	9	1		2
112		38	17		-	5	85	12	1		3
111		37	17		-	6	79	16	1		4	0			0
110		37	18		-	5	72	20	2	0	6	0			0
109		37	19		-	4	64	24	3	0	8	0			0
108		36	19		-	5	54	30	4	0	11	0			0
107		35	19		-	6	43	33	6	0	15	0	0		1				0
106		35	20		-	5	33	37	8	1	19	1	0		1				0
105		34	20		-	6	23	39	10	1	23	2	0		2	0			0
104		34	21		-	5	15	37	11	2	27	3	0		4	0			0		0
103		33	21		-	6	8	33	12	4	30	6	1		6	0	0		0		0
102		33	22		-	5	4	27	12	6	30	10	1	0	10	0	0		1		0
101		32	22		-	6	2	21	10	7	27	14	3	0	14	0	0		2		0
100		32	23		-	5	1	14	8	9	21	19	5	0	19	1	0		3	0	0		0
99		31	23		-	6	0	8	5	10	15	22	7	1	23	3	0		6	0	0		0
98		31	24		-	5	0	4	3	9	8	22	9	2	25	5	1		10	0	1		0
97		30	24		-	6	0	2	1	8	4	19	10	3	24	10	2	0	14	0	3	0	0	0
96		30	25		-	5		1	1	5	1	13	9	5	20	14	5	0	19	1	5	0	0	0
95		29	25		-	6		0	0	4	0	8	6	7	13	17	8	1	23	3	8	0	1	0
94		29	26		-	5		0	0	2	0	4	4	8	6	17	10	2	24	6	14	0	3	0	0
93		28	26		-	6		0	0	1	0	2	2	7	2	13	11	4	21	11	20	1	6	1	0	0
92		28	27		-	5			0	0		0	1	5	1	8	9	6	14	15	23	3	11	3	0	0
91		27	27		-	6				0		0	0	3	0	4	6	7	7	16	23	8	18	7	1	0	0	0
90		27	28		-	5				0		0	0	2	0	2	3	7	2	13	16	13	23	14	5	1	0	0
89		26	28		-	6				0			0	1		0	1	6	1	8	8	15	21	22	12	4	1	0	0	0
88		26	29		-	5				0				0		0	0	4	0	4	2	13	14	23	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
87		25	29		-	6				0				0		0	0	2	0	1	0	8	6	17	24	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
86		25	30		-	5								0			0	1		0	0	3	2	8	16	23	22	15	7	2	1	0	0	0
85		24	30		-	6								0		0	0	0		0	0	1	0	2	7	15	22	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
84		24	31		-	5												0		0		0	0	0	2	7	15	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
83		23	31		-	6												0				0		0	0	2	6	13	21	23	19	10	3	1	0	0
82		23	32		-	5																0			0	0	2	6	14	21	24	19	10	3	1	0
81		22	32		-	6												0				0				0	0	2	6	15	22	24	19	9	2	0
80		22	33		-	5																					0	0	2	7	16	24	24	18	7	2	0
79		21	33		-	6																							0	3	8	19	26	24	14	5	1
78		21	34		-	5																							0	1	3	11	22	29	22	10	2
77		20	34		-	6																								0	1	5	14	30	29	17	3
76		20	35		-	5																									0	2	8	21	34	26	9
75		19	35		-	6																										1	3	15	32	34	16
74		19	36		-	5																										1	1	9	22	42	25
73		19	37		-	4																											1	5	20	39	35
72		18	37		-	5																												2	12	40	46
71		17	37		-	6																												2	11	36	52
70		17	38		-	5																													1	39	60
69		17	39		-	4																													2	11	87
68		16	39		-	5																														15	85
67		15	39		-	6																														7	93
31	-66																																				100

Total:							8	10	3	3	9	7	3	2	8	5	3	1	7	3	5	2	4	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0