Colorado Avalanche Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Beat Los Angeles Kings 8-2, playoff odds up 3 to 78.2%

29 points 14 6-1

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	+4.3+4.4+4.3-1.2-1.0-4.9		+1.2+1.2+0.9-0.5-0.5-1.3		+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.1-0.5
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.3-0.2-0.3+0.4-0.1+0.4				-0.0-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	+0.4+0.5+0.3-0.6-0.4-0.3				+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Colorado Avalanche finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

119	-151						In		99.8	%	100																802	*
118		42	14		-	5	In		98.2		100		0														443	*
117		42	15		-	4	In		97.2		100		0														711	*
116		41	15		-	5	In		95.9		99	0	0														1,037	*
115		41	16		-	4	In		94.8		99	0	1														1,448	*
114		40	16		-	5	In		91.0		98	1	1														2,093	*
113		40	17		-	4	In		89.8		98	1	2														2,951	*
112		39	17		-	5	In		84.7		97	1	3														4,095	*
111		39	18		-	4	In		78.1		94	1	4	0	0												5,451	*
110		38	18		-	5	In		70.9		91	3	6		0												7,273	*
109		37	18		-	6	In		63.4		88	4	8		0												9,337	*
108		37	19		-	5	In		54.2		83	5	11	0	0												11,844	*
107		36	19		-	6	In		43.3		77	6	16	0	1		0										14,709	*
106		36	20		-	5	In		33.1		69	9	21	0	1		0										17,887	*
105		35	20		-	6	In		23.6		60	11	26	0	3		0										21,313	*
104		35	21		-	5	In		15.2		51	13	31	0	5		0										25,399	*
103		34	21		-	6	In		8.6		41	15	36	1	7		0	0									29,452	*
102		34	22		-	5	In		4.2		30	17	39	1	11	0	1	0									33,220	*
101		33	22		-	6	100.0	%	1.8		21	17	41	3	15	0	2	0	0								36,756	*
100		33	23		-	5	100.0		0.6		14	16	41	5	21	0	4	0	0								39,710	*
99		32	23		-	6	100.0		0.2		8	14	36	7	27	0	7	1	0	0							42,998	*
98		32	24		-	5	100.0		0.0		4	11	30	10	32	1	10	1	0	0							44,480	*
97		31	24		-	6	99.9		0.0		2	8	22	13	35	2	15	3	0	0							46,246	*
96		31	25		-	5	99.6		No		1	6	14	14	34	5	21	5	0	0	0						46,862	*
95		30	25		-	6	98.8		No		0	3	8	13	30	8	27	9	1	0							46,992	*
94		30	26		-	5	97.1		No		0	2	4	11	23	12	31	14	3	0	0						45,325	*
93		29	26		-	6	92.9		No		0	1	1	8	15	14	32	22	6	1	0	0					43,846	*
92		29	27		-	5	85.3		No		0	0	0	5	8	14	29	28	12	3	0	0					41,379	*
91		28	27		-	6	73.1		No			0	0	3	4	12	23	31	19	6	1	0	0				38,546	*
90		28	28		-	5	57.2		No			0	0	1	1	9	15	30	26	12	3	1	0				35,090	*
89		27	28		-	6	39.3		No			0		1	0	6	8	23	30	20	8	2	0	0			31,200	*
88		27	29		-	5	23.0		No			0		0	0	4	4	15	28	27	16	6	1	0			27,266	*
87		26	29		-	6	11.9		No					0	0	2	1	9	21	30	23	11	3	0	0		23,353	*
86		26	30		-	5	5.1		No					0	0	1	0	4	13	25	28	19	7	1	0		19,999	*
85		25	30		-	6	2.0		No					0		0	0	2	7	19	29	26	13	3	0		16,856	*
84		25	31		-	5	0.8		No					0		0	0	0	3	11	25	31	21	7	1		13,699	*
83		24	31		-	6	0.1		No							0		0	1	6	17	31	29	13	2		10,924	*
82		24	32		-	5	0.0		No							0			0	3	12	26	33	20	5		8,514	*
81		23	32		-	6	Out		No										0	1	7	20	35	28	9		6,702	*
80		23	33		-	5	Out		No										0	0	3	14	32	37	14		5,048	*
79		22	33		-	6	Out		No											0	1	9	27	41	21		3,893	*
78		22	34		-	5	Out		No											0	0	4	21	42	32		2,780	*
77		21	34		-	6	Out		No													3	15	42	39		2,052	*
76		21	35		-	5	Out		No												0	1	9	39	51		1,391	*
75		20	35		-	6	Out		No												0	1	7	32	60		1,038	*
74		20	36		-	5	Out		No													0	3	28	69		637	*
73		19	36		-	6	Out		No													0	2	23	75		452	*
72		19	37		-	5	Out		No														1	17	82		300	*
71		19	38		-	4	Out		No														2	9	89		185	*
70		18	38		-	5	Out		No															7	93		116	*
69		17	38		-	6	Out		No															6	94		69	*
68		17	39		-	5	Out		No															8	92		39	*
29	-67						Out		No																100		132	*

Total:							78.2	%	6.9	%	15	6	15	5	13	4	11	8	6	5	4	3	2	2	1		874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.9-0.9-0.9+0.2+0.2+1.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.1
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1*-0.0-0.0
Nashville Predators vs St. Louis Blues	-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1*+0.0-0.0
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.0*+0.0-0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	+0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0*+0.1-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	+0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0*+0.0-0.0
Winnipeg Jets vs Minnesota Wild	-0.0+0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

122	-151						100
121		44	13		-	4	99	1
120		43	13		-	5	100
119		43	14		-	4	100	0
118		42	14		-	5	98	2			0
117		42	15		-	4	97	3			0
116		41	15		-	5	96	3	0		0
115		41	16		-	4	95	4	0		1
114		40	16		-	5	91	7	1		1
113		40	17		-	4	90	8	1		2
112		39	17		-	5	85	12	1		3
111		39	18		-	4	78	16	1		4		0		0
110		38	18		-	5	71	20	3	0	6				0
109		37	18		-	6	63	24	4	0	8	0			0
108		37	19		-	5	54	29	5	0	11	0	0		0
107		36	19		-	6	43	34	6	0	16	0	0		1	0			0
106		36	20		-	5	33	36	8	1	20	1	0		1				0
105		35	20		-	6	24	37	10	1	24	2	0		3	0			0
104		35	21		-	5	15	36	11	2	28	3	0	0	5	0			0
103		34	21		-	6	9	32	12	4	30	6	1		7	0			0		0
102		34	22		-	5	4	26	12	5	30	9	1	0	11	0	0		1		0
101		33	22		-	6	2	20	10	7	27	14	3	0	15	0	0		2		0		0
100		33	23		-	5	1	13	7	9	22	19	5	0	20	1	0		4	0	0		0
99		32	23		-	6	0	8	5	9	15	22	7	1	24	3	0		6	0	1		0	0
98		32	24		-	5	0	4	3	9	8	22	9	1	26	5	1		10	0	1		0	0
97		31	24		-	6	0	2	1	7	4	18	10	3	25	10	2	0	15	0	3	0	0	0
96		31	25		-	5		1	1	5	1	13	9	5	20	14	5	0	20	1	5	0	0	0	0
95		30	25		-	6		0	0	3	0	7	6	7	13	17	8	0	24	3	9	0	1	0
94		30	26		-	5		0	0	2	0	4	3	8	6	17	10	1	25	6	14	0	3	0	0
93		29	26		-	6		0	0	1	0	1	2	6	2	13	10	4	21	11	21	1	6	1	0	0
92		29	27		-	5		0		0		0	1	4	0	8	8	6	14	15	25	4	12	3	0	0
91		28	27		-	6			0	0		0	0	3	0	4	5	7	7	16	23	8	18	7	2	0	0	0
90		28	28		-	5				0		0	0	1		1	2	7	2	13	17	14	23	14	5	1	0	0	0
89		27	28		-	6				0			0	1		0	1	6	0	8	8	16	22	21	12	5	1	0	0	0
88		27	29		-	5				0				0		0	0	3	0	4	3	13	14	23	21	12	5	1	0	0
87		26	29		-	6								0		0	0	2	0	1	1	8	6	16	24	21	13	6	2	0	0	0
86		26	30		-	5								0		0	0	1		0	0	4	2	7	16	24	21	14	7	2	1	0	0
85		25	30		-	6								0				0		0	0	1	0	2	7	15	23	23	16	8	3	1	0	0
84		25	31		-	5								0				0		0		0	0	0	2	7	14	22	23	18	10	3	1	0	0
83		24	31		-	6												0				0	0	0	0	2	6	14	22	24	18	9	3	1	0	0
82		24	32		-	5												0						0	0	0	2	6	14	21	24	18	10	3	1	0
81		23	32		-	6																				0	0	2	6	14	23	26	18	8	2	0	0
80		23	33		-	5																					0	0	2	8	16	23	25	18	7	1	0
79		22	33		-	6																					0	0	0	3	8	18	26	26	14	5	1
78		22	34		-	5																							0	1	4	11	21	29	23	10	1
77		21	34		-	6																								0	1	7	16	28	29	16	3
76		21	35		-	5																							0		0	2	9	22	31	27	9
75		20	35		-	6																									0	1	5	13	31	34	15
74		20	36		-	5																										0	1	9	25	40	24
73		19	36		-	6																												6	21	43	30
72		19	37		-	5																												2	14	42	42
71		19	38		-	4																												1	11	32	56
70		18	38		-	5																												1	9	21	70
69		17	38		-	6																													4	25	71
68		17	39		-	5																													3	13	85
67		17	40		-	4																														13	88
66		17	41		-	3																													10	30	60
65		16	41		-	4																															100
64		15	41		-	5																														17	83
29	-63																																				100

Total:							7	8	3	3	8	7	3	2	8	5	3	2	8	3	6	2	4	3	3	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0