Your team’s chances of making the playoffs

Calgary Flames Playoff Chances 2018-2019 50/50

Lost to Winnipeg Jets 1-2 (so), playoff odds down 0.7 to 70.6%

28 points 12 6-4

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	+4.8+4.5+4.4-1.3-0.9-5.2		+0.9+0.9+0.7-0.4*-0.3-1.0		+0.5+0.5+0.5-0.2-0.1-0.6
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	+0.2-0.2+0.8-0.1-1.0+0.2				+0.0-0.0+0.1-0.0-0.1+0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.1-0.2+0.1+0.8+0.2+0.3				-0.0-0.0+0.0+0.1*+0.0+0.0
Edmonton Oilers vs Anaheim Ducks					+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0+0.0+0.0
Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks					+0.0-0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1+0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres					+0.0+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Calgary Flames finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

120	-148						In		Yes		100																203	*
119		43	12		-	5	In		97.8	%	99	1															91	*
118		43	13		-	4	In		97.1		99	1															170	*
117		42	13		-	5	In		98.4		100																250	*
116		42	14		-	4	In		93.8		98	2	0														385	*
115		41	14		-	5	In		95.4		99	1	0														613	*
114		41	15		-	4	In		92.5		98	2	0														939	*
113		40	15		-	5	In		86.7		97	3	1														1,359	*
112		40	16		-	4	In		81.6		93	6	1														1,922	*
111		39	16		-	5	In		78.2		92	7	1														2,728	*
110		39	17		-	4	In		68.7		88	11	1														3,794	*
109		38	17		-	5	In		59.8		84	13	3														5,175	*
108		38	18		-	4	In		48.8		77	19	4	0	0												6,840	*
107		37	18		-	5	In		38.6		71	24	5	0	0												9,034	*
106		37	19		-	4	In		29.3		64	29	7	0	0												11,491	*
105		36	19		-	5	In		19.9		54	36	9	0	0		0										14,244	*
104		35	19		-	6	In		11.6		44	42	12	1	1	0	0										17,623	*
103		35	20		-	5	In		6.4		34	47	16	2	1	0	0										21,216	*
102		34	20		-	6	In		3.1		25	51	18	4	2	0	0										24,868	*
101		34	21		-	5	In		1.2		17	52	21	8	3	0	0	0									28,566	*
100		33	21		-	6	In		0.3		10	51	21	12	5	0	0	0									32,817	*
99		33	22		-	5	In		0.1		6	46	19	19	8	1	1	0									36,888	*
98		32	22		-	6	100.0	%	0.0		3	40	16	26	11	3	2	0	0								39,599	*
97		32	23		-	5	100.0		No		1	33	12	33	13	6	3	0	0	0							43,124	*
96		31	23		-	6	99.9		No		0	25	7	37	14	11	5	1	0	0							44,910	*
95		31	24		-	5	99.5		No		0	18	4	37	13	17	8	2	0	0	0						47,073	*
94		30	24		-	6	98.2		No		0	12	2	34	10	24	11	5	2	0	0	0					46,851	*
93		30	25		-	5	95.0		No		0	7	1	28	7	31	12	9	4	1	0	0	0				47,123	*
92		29	25		-	6	87.6		No			4	0	21	4	33	12	14	9	3	1	0					46,481	*
91		29	26		-	5	75.6		No			2	0	14	2	31	9	17	15	7	2	0	0				44,216	*
90		28	26		-	6	59.6		No			1	0	9	1	26	6	17	21	14	5	1	0	0			41,601	*
89		28	27		-	5	41.5		No			0		5	0	20	3	13	23	21	11	3	0	0			38,938	*
88		27	27		-	6	25.2		No			0		2	0	13	1	8	21	27	19	7	1	0	0		35,315	*
87		27	28		-	5	13.8		No			0		1	0	8	1	4	15	27	26	13	4	1	0		31,483	*
86		26	28		-	6	6.6		No			0		0		4	0	2	10	22	29	21	9	2	0		27,701	*
85		26	29		-	5	3.1		No					0		2	0	1	5	16	28	28	15	4	0		23,614	*
84		25	29		-	6	1.1		No					0		1	0	0	2	9	23	31	24	9	1		20,164	*
83		25	30		-	5	0.5		No					0		0		0	1	5	15	30	31	16	3		16,993	*
82		24	30		-	6	0.2		No							0		0	0	2	9	24	35	24	6		13,861	*
81		24	31		-	5	0.1		No							0			0	1	5	18	34	31	10		11,108	*
80		23	31		-	6	0.0		No							0			0	0	3	11	30	38	18		8,608	*
79		23	32		-	5	Out		No											0	1	6	25	41	26		6,631	*
78		22	32		-	6	Out		No												0	3	18	43	36		5,188	*
77		22	33		-	5	Out		No												0	2	13	41	43		3,670	*
76		22	34		-	4	Out		No													1	8	36	55		2,725	*
75		21	34		-	5	Out		No													1	5	31	64		1,938	*
74		20	34		-	6	Out		No													0	3	25	71		1,320	*
73		20	35		-	5	Out		No														2	20	78		977	*
72		20	36		-	4	Out		No														1	14	84		628	*
71		19	36		-	5	Out		No														0	12	88		431	*
70		19	37		-	4	Out		No														0	5	94		307	*
69		18	37		-	5	Out		No														1	4	96		184	*
68		18	38		-	4	Out		No															3	97		114	*
66	-67						Out		No																100		115	*
65		15	38		-	7	Out		No															4	96		27	*
28	-64						Out		No																100		106	*

Total:							70.6	%	3.5	%	9	18	6	14	4	11	4	5	5	6	5	4	4	3	2		874,340

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Saturday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Calgary Flames vs Vegas Golden Knights	-1.0-1.0-0.9+0.3+0.3+1.1
Florida Panthers vs Carolina Hurricanes	-0.0+0.1-0.1+0.1+0.2*-0.0
Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes	-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Pittsburgh Penguins vs Boston Bruins	-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.1+0.0*-0.0
Chicago Blackhawks vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.0+0.0-0.0-0.1*-0.0-0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.0-0.1+0.0-0.0+0.0-0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Washington Capitals	-0.1*+0.0-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0
Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars	-0.1-0.0-0.1+0.1+0.0-0.0
New York Rangers vs Philadelphia Flyers	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31

120	-148						100
119		43	12		-	5	98	1	1
118		43	13		-	4	97	2	1
117		42	13		-	5	98	2
116		42	14		-	4	94	4	2		0
115		41	14		-	5	95	3	1		0
114		41	15		-	4	93	5	2		0
113		40	15		-	5	87	10	3		1
112		40	16		-	4	82	12	6		1
111		39	16		-	5	78	14	7	0	1	0
110		39	17		-	4	69	19	11	0	1	0
109		38	17		-	5	60	25	13	0	3	0
108		38	18		-	4	49	28	18	1	4	0	0		0
107		37	18		-	5	39	32	23	1	5	0	0		0
106		37	19		-	4	29	34	27	2	6	0	0		0
105		36	19		-	5	20	34	32	5	9	1	0		0				0
104		35	19		-	6	12	32	35	8	11	1	1		1		0		0
103		35	20		-	5	6	28	35	12	13	3	2		1	0	0		0
102		34	20		-	6	3	22	34	18	14	5	4	0	2	0	0		0
101		34	21		-	5	1	15	29	23	13	7	7	0	3	0	0		0		0
100		33	21		-	6	0	10	22	29	11	10	12	1	5	0	0		0		0
99		33	22		-	5	0	5	15	31	7	12	18	2	7	1	1		1		0
98		32	22		-	6	0	3	9	31	4	12	22	4	9	2	3	0	1	0	0		0
97		32	23		-	5		1	5	28	2	10	24	9	9	4	6	0	3	0	0		0	0
96		31	23		-	6		0	2	23	0	7	22	15	8	6	10	0	5	0	1	0	0	0
95		31	24		-	5		0	1	17	0	4	17	20	5	8	16	1	7	1	2	0	0	0	0
94		30	24		-	6		0	0	12	0	2	10	23	2	8	21	4	8	2	5	0	2	0	0	0
93		30	25		-	5		0	0	7		1	5	23	1	6	22	9	7	4	9	1	4	1	0	0	0
92		29	25		-	6			0	4		0	2	19	0	3	19	15	5	6	12	2	9	3	1	0
91		29	26		-	5			0	2		0	1	14	0	2	12	19	2	7	12	5	14	8	2	0	0
90		28	26		-	6				1		0	0	9		1	6	20	1	5	8	8	17	15	6	2	0	0
89		28	27		-	5				0			0	5		0	3	17	0	3	4	9	15	21	14	6	1	0	0	0
88		27	27		-	6				0			0	2		0	1	12	0	1	1	7	9	20	22	15	6	2	0	0	0
87		27	28		-	5				0			0	1		0	0	8		1	0	4	4	12	21	22	16	8	3	1	0	0
86		26	28		-	6				0				0			0	4		0	0	2	1	5	13	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0
85		26	29		-	5								0			0	2		0	0	1	0	1	5	12	20	23	18	11	4	1	0	0	0
84		25	29		-	6								0				1		0		0	0	0	1	5	12	20	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
83		25	30		-	5								0				0				0		0	0	1	5	11	19	24	21	12	5	1	0	0
82		24	30		-	6												0				0			0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	12	5	1	0
81		24	31		-	5												0							0	0	0	1	5	12	21	26	21	11	3	1	0
80		23	31		-	6												0									0	0	1	5	13	23	26	19	9	2	0
79		23	32		-	5																						0	0	2	6	16	25	28	16	6	1
78		22	32		-	6																							0	0	2	9	20	29	26	12	2
77		22	33		-	5																							0	0	1	4	13	27	31	19	5
76		22	34		-	4																									0	2	7	21	30	30	10
75		21	34		-	5																									0	1	3	13	28	38	17
74		20	34		-	6																										0	1	8	24	41	25
73		20	35		-	5																									0		0	4	16	42	37
72		20	36		-	4																											0	2	12	43	43
71		19	36		-	5																												1	6	34	58
70		19	37		-	4																												0	4	27	68
69		18	37		-	5																													2	25	73
68		18	38		-	4																														21	79
67		16	37		-	7																													1	13	86
66		17	39		-	4																														7	93
65		15	38		-	7																														15	85
28	-64																																				100

Total:							4	5	7	10	3	3	7	8	2	2	6	5	2	2	3	2	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	0