How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators*+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3*-0.2*+0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Pres Trophy100.0*Average seed
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning-4.9-0.6-0.6+3.9+4.5+4.7
-0.8-0.1-0.2+0.6+0.8+0.8
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.5+0.5
New Jersey Devils vs Florida Panthers+0.2*-0.1*-0.2-0.2*-0.3-0.2
Carolina Hurricanes vs Winnipeg Jets-0.2*-0.3*-0.2*+0.0*+0.2+0.3
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres*+0.0*-0.1-0.3-0.3*-0.3+0.1
Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets-0.1*-0.3*-0.2*-0.1*-0.0+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Tampa Bay Lightning finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inPresChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffsTrophy12345678910111213141516Count
123-164InYes100912*
1225717-8In99.6%1000263*
1215718-7In99.8100419*
1205719-6In99.71000601*
1195619-7In99.5100946*
1185519-8In99.099001,517*
1175419-9In98.499002,260*
1165420-8In97.399103,168*
1155421-7In95.998114,607*
1145321-8In93.997216,508*
1135322-7In91.296229,000*
1125222-8In87.29343012,268*
1115223-7In82.49154016,636*
1105123-8In75.788750021,722*
1095023-9In67.8831080029,066*
1085024-8In57.977121000037,639*
1074924-9In47.670161401047,245*
1064925-8In36.561191801058,614*
1054825-9In25.65223221200073,002*
1044826-8In16.34226261400087,714*
1034726-9In9.332293026000105,527*
1024727-8100.0%4.5233032590100123,600*
1014627-9100.01.81529338130200144,088*
1004628-8100.00.69273112171300165,103*
994528-9100.00.152326162126100185,960*
984529-899.80.021820202449200206,039*
974429-999.50.01141323257133000226,744*
964430-898.7No098222312186100244,152*
954330-996.6No06420181721113000260,393*
944331-891.9No032161220221661000273,946*
934231-983.4No021117212021124100284,692*
924232-869.9No10731916231893000290,326*
914132-953.1No0041151022231562000293,253*
904133-835.4No00201161624221251000290,536*
894033-920.7No00107210212520103100285,693*
884034-810.6No010415142425177200276,565*
873934-94.7No000202819262413510263,008*
863935-81.9No00101412232721920248,410*
853835-90.7No000000261626271651230,519*
843836-80.3No00000310222923102211,452*
833736-90.1No0000015152830174191,506*
823737-80.0No000002102333257170,265*
813637-90.0No0001517333212149,919*
803638-80.0No0000311293819130,396*
793538-9OutNo0017234128111,599*
783539-8OutNo000417413794,173*
773439-9OutNo000212394778,189*
763440-8OutNo0018355664,525*
753340-9OutNo005296551,930*
743341-8OutNo003247341,719*
733241-9OutNo02197932,873*
723242-8OutNo01158425,544*
713142-9OutNo00118919,695*
703143-8OutNo089215,103*
693043-9OutNo0069411,204*
683044-8OutNo04968,124*
672944-9OutNo03975,932*
662945-8OutNo02984,341*
652845-9OutNo01993,003*
642846-8OutNo1992,069*
632847-7OutNo01001,506*
622747-8OutNo0100923*
612647-9OutNo0100628*
602547-10OutNo0100421*
0-59OutNo1001,260*
Total:50.0%3.3%66666666666666666,240,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

SundayNone
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday100.0*Lottery seed
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.9-1.0
New Jersey Devils vs Florida Panthers-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0
Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0+0.0-0.1
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
123-164100
1225717-81000
1215718-71000
1205719-61000
1195518-9991
1185519-899000
1175419-998100
1165420-897210
1155421-796211
1145321-894321
1135322-791522
1125222-8876430
1115223-78295040
1105123-87612705000
1095023-968151008000
1085024-85819120100000
1074924-948221501400100
1064925-83625191170010
1054825-92626221211120000
1044826-81626243242140000
1034726-99232442642060000
1024727-841923726750900100
1014627-921320923108012002000
1004628-81915121713110161103000
994528-9051013111515119320601000
984529-80261351518319540902000
974429-9013112111751697013130000
964430-801807148111211016260100
954330-9005049116131511741103000
944331-80030251121017315715161000
934231-900201290714710101831241000
924232-80101703101051117618931000
914132-900004015102911102016820000
904133-800002002905511172216720000
894033-90001016021910202316821000
884034-80010040105412212317931000
873934-900002000215122123181041000
863935-80001001015122023191151000
853835-9000000000015111924201251000
843836-8000000001411192421135100
833736-90000000141120252112410
823737-800000015122126211030
813637-900000261424271971
803638-80000028182827143
793538-900013112431237
783539-80001617323113
773439-9000311283821
763440-80016224131
753340-90003154041
743341-8001103752
733241-90163262
723242-80042670
713142-9022078
703143-8011683
693043-9001189
683044-80892
672944-90694
662945-80595
652845-90298
642846-8298
632847-7199
622747-8199
612647-9199
602547-10199
54-59100
532352-7892
0-52100
Total:333343434342424244444333333333