Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances 2016-2017

Season start, playoff odds unchanged at 50%

0 points 0 0-0

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today. Explain

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators	-4.8-0.6-0.7+3.9+4.1+4.7		-0.8-0.2-0.2+0.7+0.8+0.8		-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.4+0.5+0.5

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Chance in playoffs	100.0*	Pres Trophy	100.0*	Average seed
Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets	-0.1-0.3-0.3*-0.1-0.4+0.2
New Jersey Devils vs Florida Panthers	+0.2-0.2-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.1
Carolina Hurricanes vs Winnipeg Jets	-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.3
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning	+0.1-0.2-0.4-0.2-0.2*+0.0
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.4-0.2*+0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Ottawa Senators finish out the regular season. Explain

											100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance in		Pres		Chance will finish regular season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	playoffs		Trophy		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Count

122	-164						In		Yes		100																1,147	*
121		57	18		-	7	In		99.7	%	100	0															395	*
120		57	19		-	6	In		99.2		100	0															642	*
119		56	19		-	7	In		99.4		100	0	0														964	*
118		55	19		-	8	In		98.9		99	0	0														1,546	*
117		55	20		-	7	In		98.3		99	0	0														2,134	*
116		54	20		-	8	In		97.0		98	1	0														3,182	*
115		54	21		-	7	In		95.5		98	1	1														4,517	*
114		53	21		-	8	In		93.8		97	2	1														6,443	*
113		52	21		-	9	In		91.4		96	2	2														8,797	*
112		52	22		-	8	In		87.6		94	3	3		0												12,579	*
111		52	23		-	7	In		81.8		91	5	4		0												16,674	*
110		51	23		-	8	In		75.9		88	7	6		0												22,122	*
109		51	24		-	7	In		68.0		83	9	8	0	0		0										28,962	*
108		50	24		-	8	In		58.1		77	12	11	0	0												37,242	*
107		49	24		-	9	In		48.1		70	15	14	0	1		0										47,255	*
106		49	25		-	8	In		36.4		62	19	17	0	1		0										59,182	*
105		48	25		-	9	In		25.9		52	23	22	1	2	0	0	0									72,544	*
104		48	26		-	8	In		16.3		42	26	27	1	4	0	0	0									88,003	*
103		47	26		-	9	In		9.2		32	29	30	2	6	0	0	0									105,460	*
102		47	27		-	8	In		4.6		23	30	32	5	9	0	1	0									123,480	*
101		46	27		-	9	100.0	%	1.8		15	29	33	8	13	0	2	0	0								143,943	*
100		46	28		-	8	100.0		0.6		9	27	31	12	17	1	3	0	0								165,371	*
99		45	28		-	9	100.0		0.1		5	23	26	16	21	2	6	1	0	0							185,020	*
98		45	29		-	8	99.8		0.0		2	18	20	20	24	4	9	2	0	0	0						205,812	*
97		44	29		-	9	99.5		0.0		1	14	13	22	25	7	14	3	0	0	0						226,044	*
96		44	30		-	8	98.7		No		0	9	8	22	23	12	18	6	1	0	0	0					244,703	*
95		43	30		-	9	96.6		No		0	6	4	20	18	16	21	11	3	0	0	0					260,986	*
94		43	31		-	8	92.0		No		0	3	2	16	12	20	22	16	6	1	0	0	0				273,102	*
93		42	31		-	9	83.4		No		0	2	1	11	7	21	20	21	12	4	1	0	0	0			284,332	*
92		42	32		-	8	70.0		No			1	0	7	3	19	16	23	18	9	3	0	0	0			290,218	*
91		41	32		-	9	53.0		No		0	0	0	4	1	15	10	21	23	15	6	2	0	0	0		293,214	*
90		41	33		-	8	35.4		No			0	0	2	0	11	6	16	25	22	12	5	1	0	0	0	291,506	*
89		40	33		-	9	20.6		No			0	0	1	0	7	2	10	21	25	20	10	3	1	0	0	285,663	*
88		40	34		-	8	10.4		No			0		0	0	4	1	5	14	24	25	17	7	2	0	0	277,031	*
87		39	34		-	9	4.7		No			0		0	0	2	0	2	8	18	26	24	13	5	1	0	263,309	*
86		39	35		-	8	1.9		No			0		0	0	1	0	1	4	12	23	27	21	9	2	0	248,058	*
85		38	35		-	9	0.7		No			0		0		0	0	0	1	6	16	26	27	16	5	1	231,149	*
84		38	36		-	8	0.2		No					0		0	0	0	0	3	10	22	29	24	10	2	212,022	*
83		37	36		-	9	0.1		No					0		0	0	0	0	1	5	15	28	30	17	4	190,895	*
82		37	37		-	8	0.0		No					0		0		0	0	0	2	10	23	33	24	7	170,129	*
81		36	37		-	9	0.0		No					0		0			0	0	1	5	17	33	32	13	150,113	*
80		36	38		-	8	Out		No										0	0	0	2	11	29	38	19	130,032	*
79		35	38		-	9	Out		No											0	0	1	7	23	41	28	110,997	*
78		35	39		-	8	Out		No											0	0	0	4	17	41	37	94,091	*
77		34	39		-	9	Out		No												0	0	2	12	39	47	78,659	*
76		34	40		-	8	Out		No												0	0	1	8	35	56	64,824	*
75		33	40		-	9	Out		No													0	0	5	30	65	51,953	*
74		33	41		-	8	Out		No														0	3	24	73	41,615	*
73		32	41		-	9	Out		No														0	2	19	79	33,187	*
72		32	42		-	8	Out		No														0	1	15	84	25,686	*
71		31	42		-	9	Out		No														0	1	11	88	19,617	*
70		31	43		-	8	Out		No															0	8	92	14,821	*
69		30	43		-	9	Out		No															0	6	94	11,212	*
68		30	44		-	8	Out		No															0	4	96	8,183	*
67		29	44		-	9	Out		No															0	3	97	5,861	*
66		29	45		-	8	Out		No																2	98	4,324	*
65		28	45		-	9	Out		No																1	99	3,054	*
64		28	46		-	8	Out		No																1	99	2,031	*
63		27	46		-	9	Out		No																0	100	1,506	*
62		27	47		-	8	Out		No																0	100	966	*
0	-61						Out		No																	100	2,451	*

Total:							50.0	%	3.3	%	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6,240,960

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points

Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Sunday	100.0*	Lottery seed
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators	+1.0+0.1+0.1-0.8-0.9-1.0

If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Monday	100.0*	Lottery seed
New Jersey Devils vs Florida Panthers	-0.0+0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0
Boston Bruins vs Columbus Blue Jackets	+0.0+0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1
Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres	-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.1+0.1*-0.0
Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning	-0.0+0.0+0.0+0.1+0.0-0.0

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

							100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
If finish:							Chance will finish season at seed
TP		W		L	-	OT	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30

122	-164						100
121		57	18		-	7	100		0
120		57	19		-	6	99	0	0
119		56	19		-	7	99	0	0		0
118		55	19		-	8	99	1	0		0
117		55	20		-	7	98	1	0		0
116		54	20		-	8	97	2	1		0
115		54	21		-	7	96	2	1		1
114		53	21		-	8	94	3	2		1
113		52	21		-	9	91	4	2		2
112		52	22		-	8	88	6	3		3				0
111		52	23		-	7	82	9	5		4	0			0
110		51	23		-	8	76	12	7	0	6				0
109		51	24		-	7	68	15	9	0	8	0	0		0				0
108		50	24		-	8	58	19	12	0	11	0	0		0
107		49	24		-	9	48	22	15	0	13	0	0		1				0
106		49	25		-	8	36	25	19	1	17	0	0		1				0
105		48	25		-	9	26	26	22	1	21	1	1		2	0	0		0		0
104		48	26		-	8	16	26	24	2	24	2	1	0	4	0	0		0		0
103		47	26		-	9	9	23	24	4	26	4	2	0	6	0	0		0		0
102		47	27		-	8	5	19	23	7	26	7	5	0	9	0	0		1	0	0
101		46	27		-	9	2	14	20	9	23	10	8	0	12	0	0		2	0	0		0
100		46	28		-	8	1	9	15	12	17	14	11	0	16	1	1		3	0	0		0
99		45	28		-	9	0	5	10	13	11	15	15	1	19	3	2	0	6	0	1	0	0	0
98		45	29		-	8	0	2	6	13	5	15	18	3	19	5	4	0	9	0	2	0	0	0	0
97		44	29		-	9	0	1	3	11	2	12	17	5	16	9	7	0	13	1	3	0	0	0	0
96		44	30		-	8		0	1	8	0	7	14	8	11	12	11	0	16	2	6	0	1	0	0	0
95		43	30		-	9		0	0	5	0	4	9	11	6	13	15	1	17	4	11	0	3	0	0	0
94		43	31		-	8		0	0	3	0	2	5	11	2	10	17	3	15	7	15	1	6	1	0	0	0
93		42	31		-	9		0	0	2	0	1	2	9	0	7	14	7	10	10	18	3	12	4	1	0	0	0
92		42	32		-	8			0	1		0	1	7	0	3	10	10	5	11	17	6	17	9	3	1	0	0	0
91		41	32		-	9		0	0	0		0	0	4	0	1	5	10	2	9	11	10	20	16	8	2	0	0	0	0
90		41	33		-	8				0		0	0	2	0	0	2	9	0	5	5	11	17	22	16	7	2	0	0	0	0
89		40	33		-	9				0		0	0	1	0	0	1	6	0	2	1	9	10	20	23	16	8	2	1	0	0	0
88		40	34		-	8				0			0	0		0	0	4	0	1	0	5	4	12	21	23	17	9	3	1	0	0	0	0
87		39	34		-	9				0				0		0	0	2	0	0	0	2	1	5	12	21	23	18	10	4	1	0	0	0	0
86		39	35		-	8				0			0	0		0	0	1		0	0	1	0	1	5	12	20	23	19	11	5	1	0	0	0
85		38	35		-	9				0				0			0	0		0	0	0	0	0	1	5	11	19	23	20	12	5	1	0	0
84		38	36		-	8								0			0	0		0		0	0	0	0	1	4	11	19	24	21	13	5	1	0	0
83		37	36		-	9								0				0		0		0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11	20	25	21	12	4	1	0
82		37	37		-	8								0				0				0		0	0	0	0	1	5	12	22	26	21	10	3	0
81		36	37		-	9								0				0							0	0	0	0	2	6	14	24	27	19	7	1
80		36	38		-	8																				0	0	0	0	2	8	18	28	27	14	3
79		35	38		-	9																					0	0	0	1	3	11	24	31	23	7
78		35	39		-	8																						0	0	0	1	6	17	31	31	13
77		34	39		-	9																						0	0	0	0	3	11	28	38	21
76		34	40		-	8																							0	0	0	1	6	22	40	30
75		33	40		-	9																								0	0	0	3	15	40	41
74		33	41		-	8																								0	0	0	2	10	36	52
73		32	41		-	9																										0	1	6	31	62
72		32	42		-	8																										0	0	4	26	70
71		31	42		-	9																										0	0	2	20	78
70		31	43		-	8																											0	1	15	84
69		30	43		-	9																											0	1	12	88
68		30	44		-	8																												0	8	92
67		29	44		-	9																												0	6	94
66		29	45		-	8																												0	4	96
65		28	45		-	9																													3	97
64		28	46		-	8																													2	98
63		27	46		-	9																													1	99
62		27	47		-	8																													1	99
61		27	48		-	7																													0	100
60		26	48		-	8																													1	99
0	-59																																			100

Total:							3	3	3	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	2	4	2	4	2	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3