How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sharks 3 Wild 5 -6.2
-0.6
Sharks 2 Red Wings 6 -6.1
-0.6
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 -6.1
-0.6
Sharks 1 Stars 3 -5.9
-0.6
Sharks 1 Blues 3 -5.9
-0.6
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 -5.9
-0.6
Sharks 2 Predators 3 -5.8
-0.6
Sharks 3 Wild 4 -5.8
-0.6
Sharks 2 Coyotes 3 -5.7
-0.6
Sharks 2 Blues 4 -5.7
-0.6
Sharks 2 Canucks 5 -5.7
-0.6
Sharks 1 Blackhawks 5 -5.6
-0.6
Sharks 2 Kings 4 -5.6
-0.6
Sharks 2 Predators 4 -5.5
-0.6
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 -5.4
-0.5
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 -5.3
-0.5
Sharks 3 Senators 4 -5.3
-0.6
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 -5.3
-0.5
Coyotes 3 Sharks 2 -5.2
-0.5
Sharks 1 Devils 4 -5.2
-0.5
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 -5.2
-0.5
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 -5.2
-0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 2 -5.2
-0.5
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 -5.1
-0.5
Capitals 6 Sharks 1 -5.1
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 -5.1
-0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 3 -5.0
-0.5
Stars 4 Sharks 3 -5.0
-0.5
Sharks 3 Canadiens 6 -5.0
-0.5
Lightning 3 Sharks 1 -5.0
-0.5
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 3 Sharks 1 -5.0
-0.5
Wild 4 Sharks 3 -5.0
-0.5
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)+4.9
+0.4
Kings 0 Sharks 4 +4.9
+0.5
Canucks 5 Sharks 1 -4.9
-0.5
Blues 2 Sharks 0 -4.9
-0.5
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 +4.8
+0.5
Kings 1 Sharks 2 +4.7
+0.5
Red Wings 1 Sharks 4 +4.6
+0.5
Wild 0 Sharks 5 +4.6
+0.5
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)+4.6
+0.4
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 +4.6
+0.5
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 +4.5
+0.5
Flames 0 Sharks 5 +4.4
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 +4.4
+0.5
Devils 3 Sharks 5 +4.4
+0.4
Thrashers 3 Sharks 1 -4.4
-0.5
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 -4.4
-0.4
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 +4.3
+0.4
Stars 3 Sharks 5 +4.3
+0.5
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 +4.3
+0.5
Senators 1 Sharks 4 +4.2
+0.4
Sabres 0 Sharks 4 +4.1
+0.4
Sharks 4 Kings 1 +4.1
+0.4
Sharks 2 Blue Jackets 1 +4.0
+0.4
Sharks 5 Coyotes 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 6 Flames 3 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 4 Ducks 2 +3.9
+0.4
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 +3.9
+0.4
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 +3.9
+0.4
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Sharks 2 Red Wings 1 +3.8
+0.4
Blues 0 Sharks 2 +3.8
+0.4
Sharks 4 Flames 3 +3.7
+0.4
Sharks 5 Islanders 4 (so)+3.7
+0.4
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)+3.5
+0.4
Sharks 5 Avalanche 0 +3.5
+0.4
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 +3.4
+0.3
Sharks 6 Avalanche 2 +3.3
+0.4
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 +3.3
+0.3
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 +3.2
+0.3
Coyotes 5 Hurricanes 4 -0.8
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.6
Wild 8 Panthers 0 *-0.4
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)*-0.3
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Flames vs Sharks-0.7-0.5-0.6+0.5+0.3+0.7
-0.3-0.0-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Oilers vs Sharks-0.5-0.3*-0.0+0.8+0.6+0.6
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.3
Sharks vs Blue Jackets+0.6+0.3*+0.1*-0.4-0.5-0.7
+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Sharks vs Ducks+0.5+0.6+0.4*-0.1*-0.2-0.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2*+0.0-0.0-0.3
Islanders vs Sharks-0.6-0.4*-0.2*+0.3+0.5+0.3
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Sharks-0.6-0.3*-0.1+0.5+0.3+0.4
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Coyotes vs Sharks-0.6-0.3*-0.3+0.5+0.3+0.4
-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Sharks vs Stars+0.5+0.4+0.4*-0.3-0.3-0.6
+0.2+0.2+0.2*-0.0-0.1-0.3
Canucks vs Sharks-0.6-0.3*-0.2*+0.3+0.3+0.4
-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Predators vs Sharks-0.6-0.3*-0.4*+0.2+0.3+0.4
-0.4-0.1-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.3
Flames vs Avalanche-0.2-0.3*-0.1*+0.0*+0.2+0.7
Sharks vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.2*+0.2-0.5-0.3-0.6
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.3
Blackhawks vs Flames+0.3*-0.0*-0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.2
-0.0-0.1-0.1*+0.0-0.0+0.1
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1
Kings vs Blackhawks+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Kings vs Predators+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Hurricanes vs Blackhawks+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Rangers vs Blackhawks+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Oilers vs Predators+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Oilers vs Blackhawks+0.1-0.0*-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Lightning vs Blackhawks+0.1*-0.0*+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blackhawks vs Thrashers-0.1-0.1-0.1*-0.0*-0.0+0.1
Predators vs Avalanche-0.0-0.0-0.1+0.0+0.0+0.1
Avalanche vs Predators+0.1+0.0+0.0-0.1-0.1-0.0
Kings vs Blackhawks+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.1-0.1-0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sharks finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
95110-066.4%1255276113
94100-137.233452101384
93101-019.511851263784
90-216.901755262456
9291-17.707404582,124
80-36.6740467351
9192-02.122852182,470
81-21.8022655172,347
70-41.11235619176
9082-10.4014553105,538
71-30.1012533501,569
60-5Out14602650
8972-20.105464905,355
83-00.106474704,276
61-4Out546481640*
8873-10.002326428,514
62-3Out2346323,094
51-5Out232633227*
8763-2Out1207367,179
74-0Out1207544,964
52-4Out1197281,240*
8664-1Out010761408,563
53-3Out09751603,643
42-5Out867240284*
8554-2Out4643116,378
65-0Out05682713,969
43-4Out3593611,120
32-6Out24551249*
8455-1Out14946405,913
44-3Out14550402,542
33-5Out038583223*
8345-2Out026581513,562
56-0Out031571102,339
34-4Out2063151663*
8246-1Out013582722,813
35-3Out11533331,146
24-5Out26433197
8136-2Out33949101,419
47-0Out544447912
25-4Out337519231*
8037-1Out1235225939
26-3Out195526337*
7927-2Out0104446326
38-0Out84645310*
7828-1Out63460186
17-3Out2277148*
7729-0Out247651
18-2Out287243*
7619-1Out79329*
73-75Out10014*
Total:0.8%01521491851100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Sharks 3 Wild 5 +1.3
Sharks 1 Stars 3 +1.2
Sharks 1 Thrashers 2 +1.2
Sharks 1 Oilers 4 +1.2
Sharks 1 Blues 3 +1.2
Sharks 2 Predators 3 +1.2
Sharks 2 Kings 4 +1.2
Sharks 2 Red Wings 6 +1.2
Sharks 2 Coyotes 3 +1.2
Sharks 2 Blues 4 +1.2
Sharks 2 Canucks 5 +1.2
Sharks 3 Wild 4 +1.2
Sharks 3 Senators 4 +1.1
Sharks 1 Panthers 2 +1.1
Sharks 1 Blackhawks 5 +1.1
Sharks 3 Hurricanes 4 +1.1
Sharks 0 Capitals 1 +1.1
Sharks 1 Devils 4 +1.1
Sharks 2 Predators 4 +1.1
Sharks 2 Rangers 5 +1.1
Sharks 3 Canadiens 6 +1.1
Flyers 5 Sharks 3 +1.1
Stars 4 Sharks 3 +1.1
Capitals 6 Sharks 1 +1.1
Lightning 3 Sharks 1 +1.1
Coyotes 3 Sharks 2 +1.1
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 3 +1.1
Sharks 1 Canucks 3 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Sharks 2 +1.0
Kings 0 Sharks 4 -1.0
Ducks 3 Sharks 1 +1.0
Blue Jackets 4 Sharks 2 +1.0
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 +1.0
Kings 1 Sharks 2 -1.0
Canucks 5 Sharks 1 +1.0
Wild 4 Sharks 3 +1.0
Blues 2 Sharks 0 +1.0
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 -1.0
Thrashers 3 Sharks 1 +0.9
Devils 3 Sharks 5 -0.9
Blackhawks 3 Sharks 7 -0.9
Stars 3 Sharks 5 -0.9
Rangers 3 Sharks 2 +0.9
Wild 0 Sharks 5 -0.9
Oilers 1 Sharks 5 -0.9
Red Wings 1 Sharks 4 -0.9
Sharks 2 Lightning 1 (so)-0.9
Senators 1 Sharks 4 -0.9
Ducks 3 Sharks 4 -0.9
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 -0.9
Flames 0 Sharks 5 -0.9
Avalanche 1 Sharks 4 -0.9
Blackhawks 1 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.9
Sabres 0 Sharks 4 -0.9
Sharks 6 Oilers 5 (so)-0.9
Maple Leafs 1 Sharks 2 -0.9
Sharks 4 Kings 1 -0.8
Sharks 5 Islanders 4 (so)-0.8
Sharks 5 Coyotes 2 -0.8
Sharks 4 Ducks 2 -0.8
Sharks 2 Blue Jackets 1 -0.8
Sharks 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.8
Sharks 2 Red Wings 1 -0.8
Blues 0 Sharks 2 -0.8
Bruins 1 Sharks 2 (ot)-0.8
Sharks 6 Flames 3 -0.7
Sharks 5 Flyers 1 -0.7
Sharks 4 Flames 3 -0.7
Sharks 6 Avalanche 2 -0.7
Sharks 4 Bruins 3 -0.7
Sharks 5 Avalanche 0 -0.7
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 -0.7
Panthers 3 Flyers 2 (so)-0.3
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.2
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)-0.2
Panthers 3 Sharks 2 (ot)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Predators vs Sharks+0.5+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Predators vs Sharks+0.6+0.2+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3
Coyotes vs Sharks+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Sharks vs Blue Jackets-0.3-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5
Flames vs Sharks+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Canucks vs Sharks+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Sharks vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.5
Islanders vs Sharks+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2
Sharks vs Stars-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0+0.1+0.4
Sharks vs Ducks-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.0+0.0+0.4
Oilers vs Sharks+0.3+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.4-0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
95110-0125513164
94100-1334144081
93101-0118946233
90-20171049212
9291-107439427
80-37243436
9192-021295117
81-20212754170
70-411245618
9082-1001455300
71-3001352341
60-5185626
8972-200545482
83-00645472
61-4545473
8873-1002306170
62-302306170
51-5130627
8763-201763191
74-001763191
52-401562212
8664-107543440
53-3065435500
42-5545455
8554-223348161
65-0023549140
43-413147201
32-621855222
8455-1017493130
44-3017463520
33-51351342
8345-20533481310
56-073647100
34-4428531410
8246-1117522630
35-311549314
24-51461322
8136-243646131
47-064143100
25-453446141
8037-112146284
26-31351305
7927-28354413
38-06374413
7828-14264821
17-32194633
7729-0165529
7619-13862
75110-01783
73011-01388
Total:010519362112410