How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 -6.0
-0.6
Senators 2 Capitals 4 -5.6
-0.6
Senators 1 Bruins 3 -5.6
-0.6
Senators 3 Canucks 4 -5.6
-0.6
Senators 3 Capitals 4 -5.5
-0.6
Sabres 4 Senators 3 -5.5
-0.6
Senators 1 Lightning 4 -5.5
-0.6
Senators 0 Flyers 3 -5.4
-0.6
Senators 1 Red Wings 4 -5.4
-0.6
Senators 1 Wild 4 -5.4
-0.6
Senators 3 Blackhawks 4 -5.3
-0.6
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 -5.2
-0.5
Senators 1 Sharks 4 -5.2
-0.6
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 -5.2
-0.5
Senators 1 Stars 4 -5.2
-0.6
Lightning 3 Senators 1 -5.1
-0.5
Penguins 2 Senators 1 -5.0
-0.5
Ducks 5 Senators 4 -4.9
-0.5
Blues 4 Senators 1 -4.8
-0.5
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 -4.8
-0.5
Thrashers 4 Senators 2 -4.7
-0.5
Kings 2 Senators 0 -4.7
-0.5
Capitals 3 Senators 4 +4.7
+0.5
Capitals 2 Senators 1 -4.6
-0.5
Canadiens 3 Senators 4 +4.5
+0.5
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 +4.5
+0.5
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 +4.5
+0.5
Red Wings 2 Senators 3 +4.5
+0.5
Islanders 1 Senators 3 +4.5
+0.5
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 -4.4
-0.5
Panthers 4 Senators 5 (so)+4.4
+0.5
Flames 3 Senators 2 -4.4
-0.5
Bruins 0 Senators 2 +4.4
+0.4
Sabres 1 Senators 3 +4.3
+0.5
Panthers 1 Senators 3 +4.3
+0.4
Rangers 4 Senators 5 +4.3
+0.4
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 +4.3
+0.4
Islanders 2 Senators 5 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 0 Senators 3 +4.2
+0.4
Flyers 2 Senators 5 +4.2
+0.4
Bruins 3 Senators 4 +4.1
+0.4
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 +4.1
+0.4
Stars 1 Senators 2 +4.1
+0.4
Sharks 3 Senators 4 +4.0
+0.4
Senators 5 Canadiens 3 +4.0
+0.4
Senators 3 Rangers 0 +3.9
+0.4
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 +3.9
+0.4
Oilers 2 Senators 3 +3.9
+0.4
Senators 5 Oilers 4 (ot)+3.8
+0.4
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 +3.8
+0.4
Senators 4 Devils 0 +3.8
+0.4
Predators 0 Senators 5 +3.8
+0.4
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 +3.7
+0.4
Senators 4 Rangers 0 +3.6
+0.4
Wild 1 Senators 3 +3.6
+0.4
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 +3.6
+0.4
Senators 3 Islanders 1 +3.6
+0.4
Senators 7 Kings 1 +3.6
+0.4
Senators 3 Bruins 2 +3.5
+0.4
Senators 4 Penguins 3 +3.5
+0.4
Senators 5 Panthers 3 +3.5
+0.4
Senators 6 Lightning 3 +3.5
+0.4
Senators 3 Blues 2 +3.4
+0.3
Senators 5 Predators 3 +3.4
+0.3
Senators 3 Devils 2 +3.4
+0.4
Senators 5 Panthers 0 +3.3
+0.4
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 +3.3
+0.3
Senators 3 Maple Leafs 0 +3.3
+0.4
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)+3.3
+0.3
Senators 5 Coyotes 0 +3.2
+0.3
Senators 6 Flames 4 +3.2
+0.3
Senators 2 Flyers 3 (ot)*-1.0
Wild 5 Sabres 3 +0.7
Blue Jackets 5 Senators 4 (so)*-0.5
Rangers 4 Senators 3 (so)*-0.1
Canadiens 3 Senators 2 (so)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Sabres+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Senators vs Sabres+0.3+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.3
Devils vs Senators-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Devils vs Senators-0.4-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Senators vs Thrashers+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.3
Senators vs Thrashers+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Canucks vs Senators-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Senators-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Senators vs Penguins+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.3
Lightning vs Senators-0.3-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Senators finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
118100-0In199576
11790-1In09821,152
11691-0In09462,682
80-2In09181,080
11581-1In083175,002
70-3In8119603
11482-0In0712905,900
71-2In0663404,202
60-4In6436211
11372-1In514909,463
61-3In465301,890
50-5In3760363
11273-0In356227,648
62-2In326536,705
51-4In26713560
40-6In188211
11163-1In18748010,559
52-3In1576902,721
41-5In156718107*
11053-2In7722006,288
64-0In9721906,227
42-4In771220629
31-6In802020
10954-1In3623427,318
43-3In2623522,008
32-5In15739282*
10855-0In1435063,446
44-2In14151703,392
33-4In415360352
22-6In20701010
10745-1In025571713,334
34-3In2259172882
23-5In35462046
10646-0In12542941,370
35-2In12533051,235
24-4In2040346108*
10536-1In4414312952
25-3In4334418207
14-5In67333
10437-0In1195128308
26-2In2224432297
15-4In15701520
10327-1In104149185*
16-3In366425
10228-0In2316761
17-2In336730*
10118-1In158520
99-100In1002*
98010-087.5%88138
Total:100.0%00314916310100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Senators 3 Hurricanes 5 +1.2
Senators 3 Canucks 4 +1.2
Senators 3 Capitals 4 +1.2
Senators 1 Bruins 3 +1.2
Senators 1 Red Wings 4 +1.2
Senators 1 Sharks 4 +1.2
Senators 2 Capitals 4 +1.2
Senators 1 Wild 4 +1.2
Senators 1 Lightning 4 +1.2
Senators 3 Blackhawks 4 +1.2
Sabres 4 Senators 3 +1.2
Senators 1 Stars 4 +1.2
Senators 0 Flyers 3 +1.1
Senators 2 Blue Jackets 5 +1.1
Thrashers 7 Senators 2 +1.1
Lightning 3 Senators 1 +1.1
Blues 4 Senators 1 +1.0
Ducks 5 Senators 4 +1.0
Panthers 4 Senators 5 (so)-1.0
Maple Leafs 0 Senators 2 -1.0
Penguins 2 Senators 1 +1.0
Thrashers 4 Senators 2 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Senators 4 -1.0
Capitals 2 Senators 1 +1.0
Kings 2 Senators 0 +1.0
Maple Leafs 1 Senators 5 -1.0
Flames 3 Senators 2 +1.0
Hurricanes 6 Senators 1 +1.0
Blackhawks 4 Senators 2 +1.0
Red Wings 2 Senators 3 -1.0
Capitals 3 Senators 4 -0.9
Islanders 1 Senators 3 -0.9
Sabres 1 Senators 3 -0.9
Rangers 4 Senators 5 -0.9
Panthers 1 Senators 3 -0.9
Senators 3 Canadiens 0 -0.9
Bruins 3 Senators 4 -0.9
Hurricanes 2 Senators 3 -0.9
Flyers 0 Senators 3 -0.9
Sharks 3 Senators 4 -0.9
Flyers 2 Senators 5 -0.9
Stars 1 Senators 2 -0.9
Predators 0 Senators 5 -0.9
Bruins 0 Senators 2 -0.9
Senators 5 Canadiens 3 -0.9
Avalanche 4 Senators 7 -0.9
Senators 4 Maple Leafs 3 -0.9
Islanders 2 Senators 5 -0.9
Oilers 2 Senators 3 -0.8
Coyotes 4 Senators 6 -0.8
Wild 1 Senators 3 -0.8
Senators 7 Kings 1 -0.8
Senators 3 Maple Leafs 0 -0.8
Senators 3 Rangers 0 -0.8
Senators 4 Rangers 0 -0.8
Senators 5 Oilers 4 (ot)-0.8
Senators 4 Devils 0 -0.8
Senators 3 Bruins 2 -0.7
Senators 3 Islanders 1 -0.7
Senators 5 Hurricanes 1 -0.7
Senators 3 Blues 2 -0.7
Senators 5 Panthers 0 -0.7
Senators 4 Penguins 3 -0.7
Senators 5 Predators 3 -0.7
Senators 6 Lightning 3 -0.7
Senators 3 Devils 2 -0.7
Senators 5 Panthers 3 -0.7
Senators 5 Avalanche 4 -0.7
Senators 5 Coyotes 0 -0.7
Senators 6 Flames 4 -0.7
Senators 4 Islanders 3 (ot)-0.7
Maple Leafs 5 Blues 6 (so)+0.3
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-0.2
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)+0.2
Senators 2 Flyers 3 (ot)*+0.2
Canadiens 3 Senators 2 (so)+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Sabres-0.5-0.4-0.3+0.2+0.2+0.6
Senators vs Sabres-0.5-0.3-0.4+0.1+0.2+0.6
Devils vs Senators+0.7+0.2+0.2-0.2-0.1-0.1
Devils vs Senators+0.7+0.2+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.1
Senators vs Thrashers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.0+0.5
Senators vs Thrashers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Canucks vs Senators+0.6+0.2+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2
Penguins vs Senators+0.5+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3
Senators vs Penguins-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.5
Lightning vs Senators+0.5+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
118100-001981
11790-109352
11691-0084106
80-2082108
11581-10681517
70-3651619
11482-0048222900
71-204521340
60-4392536
11372-128234800
61-327195300
50-52116603
11273-014226212
62-213196413
51-410157013
40-69982
11163-151371280
52-341273290
41-541165218
11053-216666200
64-018656190
42-416665220
31-6701020
10954-1025111342
43-3015111352
32-514611392
10855-00131125006
44-20129125170
33-43395360
22-6207010
10745-101510570171
34-3121059172
23-522134620
10646-057540294
35-248530305
24-491140346
10536-1124014312
25-3133214418
14-56733
10437-011815128
26-2112114432
15-4157015
10327-1824149
16-343759
10228-023167
17-23367
10118-11585
99-100100
98010-0751313
Total:00019124641603100