How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sabres 1 Islanders 4 -5.9
-0.6
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Sabres 1 Senators 3 -5.8
-0.6
Sabres 1 Panthers 2 -5.7
-0.6
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 -5.7
-0.6
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 -5.6
-0.6
Sabres 4 Hurricanes 5 -5.3
-0.5
Devils 2 Sabres 6 +5.3
+0.5
Lightning 5 Sabres 3 -5.1
-0.5
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 -5.0
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 -4.9
-0.5
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 -4.8
-0.5
Sabres 0 Sharks 4 -4.8
-0.5
Capitals 4 Sabres 2 -4.8
-0.5
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 -4.8
-0.5
Flyers 2 Sabres 1 -4.8
-0.5
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 +4.8
+0.5
Wild 5 Sabres 3 -4.7
-0.5
Devils 2 Sabres 4 +4.7
+0.5
Thrashers 5 Sabres 6 +4.7
+0.5
Kings 2 Sabres 0 -4.7
-0.5
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 +4.7
+0.5
Panthers 3 Sabres 4 +4.7
+0.5
Predators 3 Sabres 1 -4.6
-0.4
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 +4.6
+0.5
Capitals 1 Sabres 3 +4.6
+0.4
Stars 2 Sabres 3 +4.6
+0.5
Bruins 1 Sabres 4 +4.6
+0.5
Rangers 0 Sabres 2 +4.5
+0.5
Panthers 3 Sabres 4 +4.5
+0.5
Oilers 3 Sabres 0 -4.5
-0.5
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 -4.5
-0.5
Maple Leafs 3 Sabres 5 +4.4
+0.5
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 -4.4
-0.5
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)+4.4
+0.5
Ducks 3 Sabres 2 -4.3
-0.5
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)+4.2
+0.4
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)+4.1
+0.4
Sabres 4 Devils 2 +4.1
+0.4
Flames 3 Sabres 5 +4.0
+0.4
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 +4.0
+0.4
Red Wings 2 Sabres 4 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 4 Senators 3 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 6 Rangers 3 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 +3.9
+0.4
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 +3.9
+0.4
Sabres 5 Bruins 1 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 2 Devils 0 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 +3.8
+0.4
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 +3.7
+0.4
Sabres 7 Maple Leafs 2 +3.7
+0.4
Rangers 3 Sabres 4 (so)+3.5
+0.3
Sabres 4 Lightning 1 +3.5
+0.4
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 +3.5
+0.4
Sabres 5 Flames 3 +3.5
+0.3
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 +3.4
+0.4
Sabres 2 Hurricanes 0 +3.4
+0.4
Sabres 5 Coyotes 3 +3.4
+0.3
Sabres 6 Kings 2 +3.4
+0.3
Sabres 3 Stars 1 +3.4
+0.3
Sabres 7 Predators 4 +3.4
+0.3
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 +3.3
+0.3
Sabres 4 Lightning 3 (ot)+3.3
+0.3
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 +3.3
+0.3
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +3.2
+0.3
Sabres 1 Capitals 2 (so)*-1.7
*-0.2
Blackhawks 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-1.7
Sabres 3 Canadiens 4 (so)*-0.9
*-0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*-0.8
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.8
Sabres 3 Wild 4 (so)*-0.7
Thrashers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*-0.6
Flyers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*-0.3
Sabres 4 Blues 5 (so)*-0.1
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Sabres-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3
Senators vs Sabres-0.3-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.3

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Sabres finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
121100-0In3565180
12090-1In1684478
11991-0In7931,198
80-2In596600
11881-1In19902,901
70-3In0100404
11782-0In009903,170
71-2In09913,066
60-4In1981192
11672-1In009826,828
61-3In009731,804
50-5In97339
11562-2In9376,160
73-0In09555,295
51-4In9010677
40-6In871315
11463-1In0861409,800
52-3In821803,210
41-5In7921169*
11353-2In703007,475
64-0In752505,600
42-4In643501,018
31-6In594132
11254-1In564218,808
43-3In504823,125
32-5In45541214*
11144-2In3460605,541
55-0In3758504,147
33-4In316270814
22-6In17651723
11045-1In19631715,118
34-3In16651811,859
23-5In1169191115*
10935-2In7573242,575
46-0In10563131,995
24-4In553375341*
10836-1In338481102,030
25-3In23548141619
14-5In324816331
10726-2In11749303686
37-0In02448252638
15-4In1949211153*
10627-1In8394210481
16-3In8384113116*
10528-0In2205325144
17-2In2254826113*
10418-1In10405060*
10319-0In4267027*
10209-1In33676
101010-0In10010
Total:In006527610100,000

* Row combines multiple less frequent records.

Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Why are you looking down here? We just made the playoffs!

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1100.0*Lottery seed
Sabres 1 Islanders 4 +1.2
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Sabres 1 Senators 3 +1.2
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 +1.2
Sabres 1 Panthers 2 +1.2
Sabres 2 Capitals 3 +1.1
Sabres 4 Hurricanes 5 +1.1
Sabres 0 Sharks 4 +1.1
Sabres 0 Oilers 2 +1.1
Lightning 5 Sabres 3 +1.0
Avalanche 6 Sabres 2 +1.0
Devils 2 Sabres 6 -1.0
Maple Leafs 4 Sabres 6 -1.0
Flyers 2 Sabres 1 +1.0
Capitals 4 Sabres 2 +1.0
Wild 5 Sabres 3 +1.0
Canucks 4 Sabres 1 +1.0
Hurricanes 3 Sabres 2 +1.0
Kings 2 Sabres 0 +1.0
Islanders 4 Sabres 5 (ot)-1.0
Oilers 3 Sabres 0 +1.0
Sharks 5 Sabres 2 +1.0
Stars 2 Sabres 3 -1.0
Predators 3 Sabres 1 +1.0
Maple Leafs 3 Sabres 5 -1.0
Coyotes 5 Sabres 4 +1.0
Ducks 3 Sabres 2 +1.0
Bruins 1 Sabres 4 -0.9
Devils 2 Sabres 4 -0.9
Bruins 2 Sabres 4 -0.9
Panthers 3 Sabres 4 -0.9
Panthers 3 Sabres 4 -0.9
Islanders 1 Sabres 4 -0.9
Thrashers 5 Sabres 6 -0.9
Rangers 0 Sabres 2 -0.9
Capitals 1 Sabres 3 -0.9
Flames 3 Sabres 5 -0.9
Red Wings 2 Sabres 4 -0.8
Blue Jackets 1 Sabres 3 -0.8
Sabres 4 Senators 3 -0.8
Lightning 2 Sabres 3 (so)-0.8
Blues 2 Sabres 3 (ot)-0.8
Sabres 4 Canadiens 3 -0.8
Sabres 4 Devils 2 -0.8
Sabres 7 Maple Leafs 2 -0.8
Sabres 3 Blue Jackets 2 -0.8
Sabres 4 Panthers 0 -0.8
Sabres 5 Bruins 1 -0.8
Sabres 4 Avalanche 0 -0.8
Sabres 3 Islanders 1 -0.8
Sabres 3 Bruins 2 -0.8
Sabres 5 Thrashers 4 -0.8
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 -0.8
Sabres 2 Devils 0 -0.7
Sabres 4 Lightning 3 (ot)-0.7
Sabres 6 Rangers 3 -0.7
Sabres 4 Lightning 1 -0.7
Sabres 5 Canucks 2 -0.7
Sabres 5 Thrashers 1 -0.7
Sabres 6 Kings 2 -0.7
Sabres 7 Predators 4 -0.7
Sabres 7 Ducks 0 -0.7
Sabres 5 Flames 3 -0.7
Sabres 3 Stars 1 -0.7
Sabres 5 Coyotes 3 -0.7
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 -0.7
Sabres 2 Hurricanes 0 -0.7
Rangers 3 Sabres 4 (so)*-0.6
Stars 5 Blackhawks 6 (so)*-0.3
Blackhawks 4 Sabres 3 (so)*+0.3
Sabres 1 Capitals 2 (so)*+0.3
Sabres 3 Canadiens 4 (so)*+0.3
Canucks 2 Devils 3 (so)+0.2
Sabres 2 Blackhawks 3 (so)*+0.1
Hurricanes 4 Sabres 3 (so)*-0.1
Flyers 3 Sabres 2 (ot)*+0.1
Sabres 4 Blues 5 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Senators vs Sabres+0.5+0.1+0.2-0.3-0.3-0.5
Senators vs Sabres+0.5+0.2+0.1-0.3-0.3-0.5
Sabres vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.1+0.5
Sabres vs Flyers-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.5
Penguins vs Sabres+0.4+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Sabres vs Rangers-0.2-0.2-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Sabres vs Maple Leafs-0.1-0.1-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.5
Penguins vs Sabres+0.4+0.0+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.3
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.3-0.0-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Canadiens vs Sabres+0.3-0.0*-0.0-0.3-0.3-0.4
Devils vs Senators-0.2-0.1*-0.1+0.1+0.0+0.0
Devils vs Senators-0.2-0.1*-0.0+0.1+0.0+0.0
Senators vs Penguins+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.1-0.0-0.2
Senators vs Thrashers+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.0+0.0-0.2
Senators vs Thrashers+0.1+0.1+0.1*-0.0*-0.0-0.1
Canucks vs Senators-0.2-0.1-0.1+0.1+0.1+0.1
Lightning vs Senators-0.2-0.0*-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1
Penguins vs Senators-0.1-0.0-0.0+0.1+0.1+0.1

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
121100-0211465
12090-161084
11991-02593
80-22396
11881-1019800
70-30991
11782-00009720
71-2009821
60-419621
11672-1009342
61-3009343
50-5973
11562-282117
73-0084115
51-4801010
40-6731313
11463-1069161400
52-36715180
41-5611821
11353-247233000
64-051242400
42-443213500
31-653641
11254-129274211
43-325254812
32-526205221
11144-2122356460
55-0132454350
33-4112057470
22-64136517
11045-1415558171
34-3312578181
23-538609191
10935-2164314324
46-0184313313
24-4144112375
10836-102221548110
25-32211448141
14-5161648163
10726-2171049303
37-00101448252
15-4415492111
10627-1173904210
16-326384113
10528-011205325
17-222414826
10418-1104050
10319-042670
10209-13367
101010-0100
Total:000051142526010