How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Red Wings 1 Canucks 3 -6.0
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 -5.9
-0.6
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -5.8
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 -5.8
-0.6
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 -5.8
-0.6
Red Wings 2 Kings 5 -5.8
-0.6
Red Wings 2 Senators 3 -5.7
-0.6
Red Wings 1 Sharks 4 -5.7
-0.6
Red Wings 2 Avalanche 3 -5.6
-0.6
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 -5.6
-0.6
Red Wings 2 Sabres 4 -5.5
-0.6
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 -5.5
-0.6
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 -5.5
-0.6
Sharks 2 Red Wings 1 -5.0
-0.5
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 -5.0
-0.5
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 -5.0
-0.5
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 1 -4.8
-0.5
Stars 1 Red Wings 5 +4.8
+0.5
Ducks 5 Red Wings 3 -4.8
-0.5
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 -4.7
-0.5
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 -4.7
-0.5
Avalanche 4 Red Wings 2 -4.7
-0.5
Sharks 2 Red Wings 6 +4.7
+0.4
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 2 -4.7
-0.5
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 -4.6
-0.5
Blackhawks 4 Red Wings 8 +4.6
+0.5
Blues 2 Red Wings 3 +4.6
+0.5
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 -4.6
-0.5
Hurricanes 3 Red Wings 2 -4.6
-0.5
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 +4.6
+0.5
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 -4.5
-0.5
Flames 0 Red Wings 3 +4.5
+0.5
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 -4.5
-0.5
Blackhawks 2 Red Wings 6 +4.4
+0.5
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 +4.4
+0.5
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 +4.4
+0.4
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 -4.4
-0.5
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 +4.3
+0.4
Maple Leafs 2 Red Wings 4 +4.3
+0.4
Devils 1 Red Wings 6 +4.3
+0.4
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)+4.3
+0.4
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 +4.2
+0.4
Canucks 4 Red Wings 5 (ot)+4.2
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 +4.1
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)+4.1
+0.4
Blues 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)+4.0
+0.4
Senators 1 Red Wings 4 +4.0
+0.4
Panthers 1 Red Wings 5 +4.0
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Blackhawks 3 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)+3.9
*+0.3
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 +3.9
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 +3.8
+0.4
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 +3.8
+0.4
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 +3.8
+0.4
Red Wings 7 Maple Leafs 1 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Stars 2 +3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 +3.7
+0.4
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Lightning 2 +3.6
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Wild 0 +3.6
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Capitals 3 +3.5
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Stars 2 +3.5
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Hurricanes 2 +3.5
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 +3.5
+0.4
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 +3.4
+0.3
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 +3.4
+0.4
Red Wings 4 Panthers 2 +3.3
+0.4
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)+3.2
+0.3
Red Wings 7 Devils 3 +3.1
+0.3
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 +3.0
+0.3
Red Wings 4 Bruins 3 (ot)+2.9
+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*-1.7
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)*-1.3
Wild 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*-1.2
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.5
Kings 2 Red Wings 1 (so)*-0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Blue JacketsIn*In*In*-0.0*+0.0-0.1
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.1-0.1-0.5
Canucks vs Red Wings-0.1*-0.0*In*+0.0*+0.0In
-0.5-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.2
Red Wings vs WildIn*+0.0*In*-0.0*+0.0-0.0
+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.0-0.4
Blues vs Blue Jackets-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.1+0.1+0.4
Ducks vs Red Wings-0.4+0.0*-0.0+0.3+0.3+0.3
Red Wings vs Ducks+0.3+0.3+0.3*-0.0-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Ducks+0.3+0.3+0.3-0.1-0.1-0.4
Red Wings vs Kings+0.3+0.3+0.4*-0.0-0.0-0.4
Capitals vs Blues+0.3*+0.0*+0.0-0.3-0.3-0.3
Lightning vs Blues+0.3+0.1+0.1-0.3-0.2-0.2
Blues vs Oilers-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.0+0.1+0.3
Blues vs Maple Leafs-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.4
Stars vs Blues+0.3+0.0+0.0-0.2-0.3-0.3
Blues vs Ducks-0.3-0.3-0.3*+0.1+0.1+0.3
Avalanche vs Blues+0.4+0.2+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1
Blues vs Avalanche-0.1-0.1-0.1+0.2+0.2+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Red Wings finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
10970-0In1991,165
10860-1In099002,187
10761-0In0980115,141
50-2In0980111,726
10651-1In0940338,452
40-3In9524759
10552-0In8903809,723
41-2In890385,358
30-4In8668220
10442-1In0780419012,877
31-3In775191,891
20-5In7741926
10343-0In6533109,881
32-2In6533206,835
21-4In623350373
10233-1In50247110,452
22-3In4824811,731
11-5In495141
10134-0In36158506,111
23-2In35158604,131
12-4In302636198
01-6In1001
10024-1In221641304,665
13-3In19066141660
02-5In9642711
9925-099.9%135727302,182
14-2In12602531,178
03-4In122454149
9815-199.55043421011,133
04-3In5384612104
9716-099.132748211434
05-297.822053222139
9606-194.11532476118
9507-089.6233541048
Total:100.0%0660228300100,000
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1None
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Red Wings 3 Blackhawks 4 +1.3
Red Wings 1 Canucks 3 +1.2
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +1.2
Red Wings 2 Senators 3 +1.2
Red Wings 2 Sabres 4 +1.2
Red Wings 2 Kings 5 +1.2
Red Wings 3 Blues 4 +1.2
Red Wings 1 Canadiens 3 +1.2
Red Wings 3 Sharks 6 +1.2
Red Wings 1 Flames 2 +1.2
Red Wings 1 Sharks 4 +1.2
Red Wings 4 Oilers 6 +1.2
Red Wings 2 Avalanche 3 +1.1
Sabres 8 Red Wings 3 +1.1
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 2 +1.0
Coyotes 4 Red Wings 2 +1.0
Sharks 2 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Canadiens 3 Red Wings 0 +1.0
Blue Jackets 4 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Lightning 1 Red Wings 0 +1.0
Ducks 5 Red Wings 3 +1.0
Capitals 5 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Wild 5 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Blackhawks 4 Red Wings 8 -1.0
Avalanche 4 Red Wings 2 +1.0
Blackhawks 2 Red Wings 6 -1.0
Hurricanes 3 Red Wings 2 +1.0
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Stars 1 Red Wings 5 -1.0
Blues 2 Red Wings 3 -1.0
Rangers 2 Red Wings 1 +1.0
Oilers 4 Red Wings 1 +0.9
Predators 2 Red Wings 6 -0.9
Maple Leafs 2 Red Wings 4 -0.9
Devils 1 Red Wings 6 -0.9
Stars 2 Red Wings 3 (ot)-0.9
Avalanche 3 Red Wings 4 -0.9
Canucks 4 Red Wings 5 (ot)-0.9
Sharks 2 Red Wings 6 -0.9
Flames 0 Red Wings 3 -0.9
Senators 1 Red Wings 4 -0.9
Blues 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)-0.9
Bruins 3 Red Wings 4 -0.9
Panthers 1 Red Wings 5 -0.9
Flames 2 Red Wings 3 -0.9
Islanders 4 Red Wings 5 -0.9
Red Wings 4 Blue Jackets 3 -0.9
Red Wings 6 Blackhawks 3 -0.8
Kings 1 Red Wings 3 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Blues 2 -0.8
Red Wings 6 Islanders 1 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Predators 1 -0.8
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)-0.8
Red Wings 7 Maple Leafs 1 -0.8
Coyotes 3 Red Wings 4 (ot)-0.8
Red Wings 3 Avalanche 2 -0.8
Red Wings 3 Lightning 2 -0.8
Red Wings 5 Predators 2 -0.8
Red Wings 5 Capitals 3 -0.8
Red Wings 4 Panthers 2 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Stars 2 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Hurricanes 2 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Rangers 2 -0.7
Red Wings 4 Stars 2 -0.7
Red Wings 5 Flyers 1 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Wild 0 -0.7
Red Wings 4 Coyotes 3 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Coyotes 2 (so)-0.7
Red Wings 7 Devils 3 -0.7
Red Wings 5 Thrashers 0 -0.7
Red Wings 3 Canucks 2 (ot)-0.7
Red Wings 4 Bruins 3 (ot)-0.7
Wild 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.3
Oilers 5 Red Wings 4 (so)*+0.2
Predators 4 Red Wings 3 (so)+0.2
Flyers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)*+0.1
Kings 2 Red Wings 1 (so)*+0.0
Thrashers 4 Red Wings 3 (ot)+0.0
Red Wings 3 Oilers 4 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Red Wings vs Blue Jackets-0.5-0.4-0.5+0.2+0.3+1.0
Red Wings vs Kings-0.6-0.6-0.7*+0.1+0.1+0.8
Canucks vs Red Wings+1.0+0.2+0.2-0.5-0.4-0.5
Ducks vs Red Wings+0.8-0.0*+0.1-0.7-0.6-0.7
Red Wings vs Wild-0.6-0.6-0.6+0.1+0.1+0.8
Red Wings vs Ducks-0.6-0.6-0.5+0.2+0.1+0.9
Red Wings vs Ducks-0.6-0.6-0.5*+0.1+0.1+0.9
Capitals vs Blues-0.6-0.0*-0.0+0.6+0.7+0.6
Lightning vs Blues-0.7-0.1-0.2+0.5+0.5+0.5
Blues vs Oilers+0.5+0.5+0.5-0.1-0.1-0.7
Blues vs Maple Leafs+0.3+0.4+0.3-0.3-0.3-0.8
Stars vs Blues-0.6-0.0-0.1+0.5+0.6+0.5
Blues vs Ducks+0.5+0.5+0.5*-0.1-0.1-0.6
Blues vs Blue Jackets+0.4+0.4+0.4-0.1-0.2-0.7
Avalanche vs Blues-0.8-0.4-0.2+0.3+0.3+0.3
Blues vs Avalanche+0.2+0.2+0.1-0.4-0.4-0.9

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
10970-012970
10860-101683000
10761-008900100
50-207910101
10651-1039100213
40-3392213
10552-018803180
41-21880317
30-418568
10442-10078041180
31-30775118
20-577419
10343-0065303100
32-2065303200
21-46231350
10233-150204701
22-304824801
11-54951
10134-03610580500
23-2351580500
12-4302636
01-6100
10024-122106401300
13-319066141
02-596427
9925-01357027020
14-212602513
03-41224541
9815-1504342091
04-353846111
9716-032748211
05-2220532211
9606-115324733
9507-02335464
Total:0265002027030000