How are these numbers calculated?

Big Games

How we did yesterday and who we should root for today.   Explain

Thursday, 9/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Penguins 3 Capitals 5 -5.8
-0.6
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Chance in playoffs100.0*Average seed
Penguins 0 Bruins 3 -6.0
-0.6
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 -5.7
-0.6
Penguins 2 Capitals 3 -5.7
-0.6
Penguins 3 Blues 4 -5.6
-0.6
Penguins 1 Canadiens 5 -5.5
-0.6
Penguins 2 Wild 4 -5.4
-0.5
Penguins 2 Blue Jackets 3 -5.3
-0.5
Penguins 1 Canadiens 7 -5.3
-0.5
Penguins 3 Oilers 5 -5.2
-0.5
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 +5.2
+0.5
Penguins 3 Predators 4 -5.2
-0.5
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 -5.1
-0.5
Bruins 2 Penguins 3 +5.0
+0.5
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 -5.0
-0.5
Capitals 6 Penguins 4 -5.0
-0.5
Thrashers 4 Penguins 2 -5.0
-0.5
Wild 2 Penguins 1 -4.9
-0.5
Rangers 4 Penguins 2 -4.9
-0.5
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 -4.9
-0.5
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 +4.9
+0.5
Lightning 7 Penguins 3 -4.9
-0.5
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 +4.7
+0.5
Senators 4 Penguins 3 -4.7
-0.5
Devils 2 Penguins 3 +4.7
+0.5
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 -4.7
-0.5
Panthers 3 Penguins 5 +4.7
+0.5
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 +4.7
+0.5
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 -4.7
-0.5
Bruins 3 Penguins 1 -4.6
-0.5
Stars 4 Penguins 2 -4.6
-0.5
Rangers 1 Penguins 3 +4.6
+0.5
Blues 6 Penguins 4 -4.5
-0.5
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 4 +4.5
+0.5
Predators 2 Penguins 1 -4.5
-0.5
Islanders 3 Penguins 4 +4.5
+0.5
Flyers 1 Penguins 4 +4.5
+0.5
Kings 4 Penguins 2 -4.4
-0.4
Devils 1 Penguins 3 +4.4
+0.5
Islanders 2 Penguins 4 +4.4
+0.5
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 -4.4
-0.5
Canucks 2 Penguins 3 +4.3
+0.4
Penguins 5 Flyers 3 +4.1
+0.4
Penguins 4 Maple Leafs 2 +4.1
+0.4
Avalanche 1 Penguins 6 +4.0
+0.4
Blue Jackets 3 Penguins 5 +4.0
+0.4
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)+3.9
+0.4
Penguins 4 Bruins 1 +3.9
+0.4
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 +3.9
+0.4
Ducks 5 Penguins 7 +3.9
+0.4
Penguins 7 Devils 2 +3.9
+0.4
Oilers 3 Penguins 4 (so)+3.9
+0.4
Lightning 1 Penguins 2 (so)+3.8
+0.4
Penguins 3 Flyers 1 +3.8
+0.4
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)+3.7
+0.4
Penguins 4 Hurricanes 2 +3.7
+0.4
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 +3.7
+0.4
Penguins 2 Kings 0 +3.7
+0.4
Penguins 5 Hurricanes 0 +3.7
+0.4
Penguins 4 Lightning 3 +3.6
+0.4
Penguins 2 Senators 1 +3.6
+0.4
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 +3.6
+0.4
Penguins 6 Stars 1 +3.6
+0.4
Penguins 5 Panthers 2 +3.5
+0.4
Penguins 5 Flames 2 +3.5
+0.3
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 +3.5
+0.4
Penguins 4 Thrashers 3 +3.5
+0.4
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 +3.4
+0.3
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 +3.3
+0.3
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 +3.3
+0.3
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 +3.1
+0.3
Penguins 3 Ducks 2 (ot)+3.0
+0.3
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)*-2.3
*-0.2
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)-1.8
*-0.2
Penguins 2 Rangers 3 (ot)*-1.1
*-0.2
Penguins 4 Devils 5 (so)*-0.8
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.6
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.4
Flames 2 Penguins 1 (ot)*+0.2
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Penguins vs Lightning+0.5+0.6+0.5*+0.0*-0.2-1.3
+0.1+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Capitals vs Hurricanes+0.6*+0.2*+0.0-1.2-1.0-0.7
Penguins vs Sabres+0.7+0.7+0.8+0.5*+0.2-1.0
+0.2+0.2+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Penguins vs Senators+0.6+0.6+0.8*+0.2*+0.1-0.9
+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.1-0.1-0.2
Hurricanes vs Thrashers-0.8-0.6-1.0*+0.3+0.3+0.7
Rangers vs Hurricanes+0.6+0.3*+0.0-0.5-0.9-1.0
Penguins vs Sabres+0.7+0.7+0.7*+0.0*+0.1-0.9
+0.2+0.1+0.2-0.0-0.0-0.2
Senators vs Penguins-0.8*+0.1*+0.2+0.8+0.7+0.7
-0.2-0.0-0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2
Penguins vs Thrashers+0.7+0.6+0.6*+0.1*+0.2-0.9
+0.2+0.1+0.1-0.0-0.0-0.2
Canadiens vs Penguins-0.6+0.3*+0.1+0.7+0.7+0.7
-0.1+0.0*+0.0+0.2+0.2+0.2

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

Chances based on how well the Penguins finish out the regular season.   Explain

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance inChance will finish regular season at seed
TPWL-OTplayoffs123456789101112131415Count
10970-0In214534388480
10860-1In17116462721,138
10761-0In0307394382,646
50-2In35345081,146
10651-1In112057205,526
40-3In021195623690
10552-0In001056346,625
41-2In000855364,830
30-4In01125532214
10442-1In003465111,431
31-3In0345522,198
20-5In3425560
10343-0In0132678,922
32-2100.0%01326707,755
21-499.8132670553
10-6In75258
10233-199.8002278011,916
22-3100.00227802,478
11-5In198162
10134-099.60138707,040
23-299.50138715,947
12-498.812871409
01-6In1006
10024-198.5079127,125
13-398.879111,241
02-596.7393330
9925-096.039343,282
14-296.039342,207
03-496.46904111
9815-190.2289102,133
04-393.42927244
9716-082.908217848
05-281.918118326
9606-168.906931267
9507-061.36139106
Total:99.0%0001530631100,000
Points
Chance Will Make Playoffs

Lottery

Ye of little faith, already thinking about next year. Here are the big games and what ifs for draft seeds.

Big Games

Thursday, 9/1100.0*Lottery seed
Penguins 3 Capitals 5 +1.2
Saturday, 10/1None
Tuesday, 11/1100.0*Lottery seed
Penguins 0 Bruins 3 +1.2
Penguins 1 Canucks 3 +1.2
Penguins 3 Blues 4 +1.2
Penguins 2 Capitals 3 +1.2
Penguins 1 Canadiens 5 +1.1
Penguins 3 Predators 4 +1.1
Penguins 2 Wild 4 +1.1
Penguins 2 Blue Jackets 3 +1.1
Penguins 3 Oilers 5 +1.1
Penguins 1 Canadiens 7 +1.1
Panthers 2 Penguins 1 +1.1
Flyers 5 Penguins 3 +1.0
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 3 -1.0
Sabres 5 Penguins 1 +1.0
Wild 2 Penguins 1 +1.0
Rangers 4 Penguins 2 +1.0
Capitals 6 Penguins 4 +1.0
Blues 6 Penguins 4 +1.0
Capitals 0 Penguins 1 -1.0
Predators 2 Penguins 1 +1.0
Lightning 7 Penguins 3 +1.0
Thrashers 4 Penguins 2 +1.0
Hurricanes 7 Penguins 4 +1.0
Blackhawks 1 Penguins 0 +1.0
Bruins 2 Penguins 3 -1.0
Devils 2 Penguins 3 -1.0
Stars 4 Penguins 2 +1.0
Bruins 3 Penguins 1 +1.0
Rangers 1 Penguins 3 -1.0
Senators 4 Penguins 3 +1.0
Devils 1 Penguins 3 -1.0
Hurricanes 3 Penguins 2 +1.0
Islanders 2 Penguins 4 -1.0
Flyers 1 Penguins 4 -1.0
Panthers 3 Penguins 5 -1.0
Thrashers 4 Penguins 5 -0.9
Kings 4 Penguins 2 +0.9
Sabres 2 Penguins 3 -0.9
Canucks 2 Penguins 3 -0.9
Sharks 4 Penguins 5 (so)-0.9
Islanders 3 Penguins 4 -0.9
Maple Leafs 2 Penguins 4 -0.9
Blue Jackets 3 Penguins 5 -0.9
Avalanche 1 Penguins 6 -0.9
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 -0.9
Ducks 5 Penguins 7 -0.9
Penguins 4 Maple Leafs 2 -0.8
Penguins 5 Flyers 3 -0.8
Penguins 7 Devils 2 -0.8
Coyotes 4 Penguins 5 (ot)-0.8
Penguins 2 Kings 0 -0.8
Lightning 1 Penguins 2 (so)-0.8
Penguins 4 Bruins 1 -0.8
Oilers 3 Penguins 4 (so)*-0.8
Penguins 3 Flyers 1 -0.8
Penguins 6 Stars 1 -0.8
Penguins 3 Blackhawks 1 -0.8
Penguins 2 Panthers 0 -0.8
Penguins 4 Hurricanes 2 -0.8
Penguins 5 Islanders 1 -0.8
Penguins 5 Flames 2 -0.7
Penguins 3 Red Wings 1 -0.7
Penguins 4 Lightning 3 -0.7
Penguins 5 Hurricanes 0 -0.7
Penguins 4 Thrashers 3 -0.7
Penguins 2 Senators 1 -0.7
Penguins 4 Sharks 0 -0.7
Penguins 5 Panthers 2 -0.7
Penguins 3 Coyotes 1 -0.7
Penguins 3 Avalanche 2 -0.7
Penguins 3 Ducks 2 (ot)-0.7
Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 4 (so)*+0.4
Penguins 4 Rangers 5 (ot)+0.3
Penguins 2 Rangers 3 (ot)*+0.3
Penguins 4 Devils 5 (so)*+0.2
Canadiens 6 Penguins 5 (so)*-0.1
Red Wings 6 Penguins 5 (so)*+0.0
If winner is:HomeHome OTHome SOAway SOAway OTAway
Canadiens vs Penguins+0.3-0.0*-0.0-0.4-0.5-0.4
Senators vs Penguins+0.4+0.1+0.1-0.4-0.3-0.4
Penguins vs Sabres-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.0+0.1+0.4
Penguins vs Senators-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Penguins vs Thrashers-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Penguins vs Sabres-0.3-0.3-0.3+0.1+0.1+0.4
Penguins vs Lightning-0.2-0.2-0.2+0.2+0.2+0.4

* A starred number could be exactly 0 or just really small. The simulation did not run long enough to know.

What If

100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100
If finish:Chance will finish season at seed
TPWL-OT123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
10970-021452410388
10860-1160110646272
10761-0030034390438
50-23023340508
10651-110012005720
40-3020101805623
10552-00000915634
41-200000805536
30-4011105532
10442-10003046051
31-3003045052
20-534255
10343-0001032067
32-2010320670
21-4132670
10-6631325
10233-10002107800
22-300211780
11-51981
10134-0001218700
23-201218701
12-4111871
01-6100
10024-10619102
13-3719111
02-53933
9925-0219024
14-2219124
03-4438824
9815-11183510
04-328487
9716-0007111170
05-201691218
9606-104721310
9507-03031363
Total:0000005029063110